Simulasi pandemi Python COVID-19

pengantar

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COVID-19 — , SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV). — , /, .

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— , - . COVID-19 1 14 .

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Python

: . , , (Total cases), (New cases) (Infected), , ( - , ).

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

#   
np.random.seed(0)

#         . 
#     :     . 
#      ,   , , 
#            - .
def get_coef(day):
    return COEF_BASE if day < DAY_QUARANTINE else COEF_QUARANTINE

if __name__ == "__main__":
    #  
    days = np.arange(1, DAYS_OF_SIMULATION)

    #  
    infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, 1)

    infected_lst = []  #      ,      
    new_cases_lst = []
    new_cases_total_lst = []

    #    
    for day in days:
        #   
        coef = get_coef(day)

    #      
        new_cases_idx = np.argwhere(infected == day).flatten()

        #        
        new_cases_count = new_cases_idx.size

        #       ,  
        infected = np.delete(infected, new_cases_idx)

        #             
        new_infected_count = np.random.poisson(coef, infected.size).sum()
        new_infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, new_infected_count) + day
        infected = np.concatenate((infected, new_infected))

        #  
        infected_lst.append(infected.size)
        new_cases_lst.append(new_cases_count)
        new_cases_total_lst.append(sum(new_cases_lst))

        print(day, infected.size)

    plt.figure(figsize=(16, 8))

    #    
    plt.subplot(311)
    plt.title(f"COVID-19 pandemic in {COUNTRY}")
    plt.plot(days, new_cases_total_lst)
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Total cases"], loc='upper left')

    #     
    plt.subplot(312)
    plt.bar(days, new_cases_lst, alpha=0.7, color='y')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["New cases"], loc='upper left')

    #    
    plt.subplot(313)
    plt.plot(days, infected_lst, color='r')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Infected"], loc='upper left')

    plt.show()

.

DAYS_OF_SIMULATION -    ,
COEF_BASE -       ,
COEF_QUARANTINE -       ,
DAY_QUARANTINE -        ,
INCUBATION_PERIOD -       ( ).

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, :

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. - , ( 74- ), - , , 14 . , 300000, 250- , 180 ( , , 6 ). , 40000.

:
— 300000
— 6
— 40000

, , :

COUNTRY = "USA"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 83
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. , , ( DAY_QUARANTINE - ), , COEF_QUARANTINE . .

:
— 1700000
— 6
— 250000

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I.

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 73
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 250000
— 6
— 35000

II. 1

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 80
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 950000
— 7
— 140000

III. 2

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 87
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 4000000
— 8
— 550000

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Saya menyarankan pembaca untuk bermain-main dengan skrip, mencoba mensimulasikan proses untuk negara lain, berhenti berlangganan di komentar. Menarik juga untuk menyulitkan simulasi dengan menambahkan lebih banyak faktor yang tidak terhitung.