पायथन सीओवीआईडी ​​-19 महामारी सिमुलेशन

परिचय

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COVID-19 — , SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV). — , /, .

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— , - . COVID-19 1 14 .

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Python

: . , , (Total cases), (New cases) (Infected), , ( - , ).

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

#   
np.random.seed(0)

#         . 
#     :     . 
#      ,   , , 
#            - .
def get_coef(day):
    return COEF_BASE if day < DAY_QUARANTINE else COEF_QUARANTINE

if __name__ == "__main__":
    #  
    days = np.arange(1, DAYS_OF_SIMULATION)

    #  
    infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, 1)

    infected_lst = []  #      ,      
    new_cases_lst = []
    new_cases_total_lst = []

    #    
    for day in days:
        #   
        coef = get_coef(day)

    #      
        new_cases_idx = np.argwhere(infected == day).flatten()

        #        
        new_cases_count = new_cases_idx.size

        #       ,  
        infected = np.delete(infected, new_cases_idx)

        #             
        new_infected_count = np.random.poisson(coef, infected.size).sum()
        new_infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, new_infected_count) + day
        infected = np.concatenate((infected, new_infected))

        #  
        infected_lst.append(infected.size)
        new_cases_lst.append(new_cases_count)
        new_cases_total_lst.append(sum(new_cases_lst))

        print(day, infected.size)

    plt.figure(figsize=(16, 8))

    #    
    plt.subplot(311)
    plt.title(f"COVID-19 pandemic in {COUNTRY}")
    plt.plot(days, new_cases_total_lst)
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Total cases"], loc='upper left')

    #     
    plt.subplot(312)
    plt.bar(days, new_cases_lst, alpha=0.7, color='y')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["New cases"], loc='upper left')

    #    
    plt.subplot(313)
    plt.plot(days, infected_lst, color='r')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Infected"], loc='upper left')

    plt.show()

.

DAYS_OF_SIMULATION -    ,
COEF_BASE -       ,
COEF_QUARANTINE -       ,
DAY_QUARANTINE -        ,
INCUBATION_PERIOD -       ( ).

, , .

, :

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. - , ( 74- ), - , , 14 . , 300000, 250- , 180 ( , , 6 ). , 40000.

:
— 300000
— 6
— 40000

, , :

COUNTRY = "USA"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 83
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. , , ( DAY_QUARANTINE - ), , COEF_QUARANTINE . .

:
— 1700000
— 6
— 250000

— , . , , . "" . :

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2. 1 — .
3. 2 — .

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I.

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 73
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 250000
— 6
— 35000

II. 1

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 80
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 950000
— 7
— 140000

III. 2

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 87
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 4000000
— 8
— 550000

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मैं पाठकों को स्क्रिप्ट के साथ खेलने का सुझाव देता हूं, अन्य देशों के लिए प्रक्रिया का अनुकरण करने की कोशिश करता हूं, टिप्पणियों में सदस्यता समाप्त करता हूं। अधिक बेहिसाब कारकों को जोड़कर सिमुलेशन को जटिल बनाना भी दिलचस्प है।