Simulation de pandémie Python COVID-19

introduction

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Python

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import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

#   
np.random.seed(0)

#         . 
#     :     . 
#      ,   , , 
#            - .
def get_coef(day):
    return COEF_BASE if day < DAY_QUARANTINE else COEF_QUARANTINE

if __name__ == "__main__":
    #  
    days = np.arange(1, DAYS_OF_SIMULATION)

    #  
    infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, 1)

    infected_lst = []  #      ,      
    new_cases_lst = []
    new_cases_total_lst = []

    #    
    for day in days:
        #   
        coef = get_coef(day)

    #      
        new_cases_idx = np.argwhere(infected == day).flatten()

        #        
        new_cases_count = new_cases_idx.size

        #       ,  
        infected = np.delete(infected, new_cases_idx)

        #             
        new_infected_count = np.random.poisson(coef, infected.size).sum()
        new_infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, new_infected_count) + day
        infected = np.concatenate((infected, new_infected))

        #  
        infected_lst.append(infected.size)
        new_cases_lst.append(new_cases_count)
        new_cases_total_lst.append(sum(new_cases_lst))

        print(day, infected.size)

    plt.figure(figsize=(16, 8))

    #    
    plt.subplot(311)
    plt.title(f"COVID-19 pandemic in {COUNTRY}")
    plt.plot(days, new_cases_total_lst)
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Total cases"], loc='upper left')

    #     
    plt.subplot(312)
    plt.bar(days, new_cases_lst, alpha=0.7, color='y')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["New cases"], loc='upper left')

    #    
    plt.subplot(313)
    plt.plot(days, infected_lst, color='r')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Infected"], loc='upper left')

    plt.show()

.

DAYS_OF_SIMULATION -    ,
COEF_BASE -       ,
COEF_QUARANTINE -       ,
DAY_QUARANTINE -        ,
INCUBATION_PERIOD -       ( ).

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, :

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. - , ( 74- ), - , , 14 . , 300000, 250- , 180 ( , , 6 ). , 40000.

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— 300000
— 6
— 40000

, , :

COUNTRY = "USA"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 83
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. , , ( DAY_QUARANTINE - ), , COEF_QUARANTINE . .

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— 1700000
— 6
— 250000

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I.

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 73
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 250000
— 6
— 35000

II. 1

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 80
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 950000
— 7
— 140000

III. 2

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 87
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 4000000
— 8
— 550000

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Je suggère aux lecteurs de jouer avec le script, d'essayer de simuler le processus pour d'autres pays, de se désinscrire dans les commentaires. Il est également intéressant de compliquer la simulation en ajoutant davantage de facteurs non comptabilisés.