The simplest model of macroeconomics and trends in market information support

Economics is the simplest scientific discipline of all that mankind has to deal with in order to survive. Here we determine what we need, allocate resources for this, and ourselves control the result in order to make adjustments for the future - and rarely (and you can also allocate an insurance resource) unrecognizable forces intervene here. There are no unsolved secrets of the universe, and yet economically-driven disasters affect a much larger number of citizens than natural and unpredictable disasters.

It is clear that production must be balanced between industries and, in general, with consumption. What is already impossible without clarifying the correlation of needs and supply, since the dynamics of changes in the situation can be very mobile due to the development of technologies. And of course, it is necessary to establish the price of each unit of production, without which exchange of goods is impossible.

For some time, the idea prevailed, shared by Marxists, that the value of a commodity is determined by the amount of human labor invested, measured by time. Now many people believe that the cost is determined by the energy intensity of the production of goods. The reason is obviously that earlier production was limited by the cost of manual labor, and now more and more by the cost of power consumption of machine tools, including the consumption of machines making the required machines and extracting raw materials. Although an energy ruble, it is also an attempt to link the cost of goods with the costs of planetary resources for its production. However, people are also involved. And money has circulation only between people. Therefore, all these attempts to find the objective equivalent of value, alas, are the essence of error.

Note - wherever people participate, they get paid for their work. The cost of raw materials and means of production is also determined by the salary of the organizers and the workers who create them. Ultimately, the value of any product is equal to the total salary paid to all those involved in its production, including those involved in the extraction of raw materials and the manufacture of machine tools. And what will they spend it on? Yes, only for consumer goods and services. Here's the answer: the value of any product is determined by the total value of consumer goods and services consumed by manufacturers during its production, taking into account goods consumed in the performance of past labor, and paid to state employees for the same period. And no other "absolute"there is no equivalent value. No matter what Marx or anyone else claims.

It is possible to calculate the necessary level of taxation and the level of average profitability of production in the country using the available statistical data. This allows us to make a simple macroeconomic model based on the continuity of commodity-cash flows in the sectors of production of consumer goods, production of raw materials and equipment in an ideal closed economy. On a planetary scale, the economy is a priori closed.

The advantage of this model is that the parameters of any other adequate model, summarized by the categories of this model, must satisfy its relations, just as physical processes obey the law of conservation of mass and energy. The components of the model are:

• Production of consumer goods ( TP ) and the provision of services
• Raw materials production and production (recovery) of means of production ( SP )
• The budget that carries out the conversion of cash / cashless and banking operations through state financial institutions.

Private banks are not represented in the model since usurious interest does not have the necessary state or social function. But any money received by someone must be taken from somewhere. It is logical if interest on deposits will be paid out of interest on loans. As you move purely to electronic money, the interest on deposits becomes meaningless at all, for money is already in the state bank.

The initial parameters in this model are:

• W₁ – , ( .). , .
• K – , ( .)
• B – , .. (, , , ), . , B ≈ 1.
• E – ( W₁), , , , ( ).

The ratios of salaries, income and its distribution are shown in Fig. 1. In the production of raw materials and the operation of the joint venture required for the production of TP, in turn, raw materials are consumed and the work of the next next group of enterprises is required, which already ensures the work (and restoration) of the first group of means of production, and then the next group, etc. almost ad infinitum. And in each next group of enterprises from the chain, a part of the proceeds will be transferred to the remuneration of workers. This situation is reflected in fig. 2. In order for the work in each chain to be completed during the turnover period, it is necessary that the payments reach the end of the chain.

Thus, in each turnover period, the teams of ALL enterprises work in the chain of enterprises producing and providing the joint venture, and therefore, their payments and revenues should be summed up. These sums of geometric progressions are calculated and shown on the right in Fig. 2. The letter W there denotes the total finance capitalized in the production of raw materials and ensuring the operation of the joint venture required for the production of TP. An endless chain of raw material and joint venture enterprises serving each other in Fig. 2 can be adequately represented by the cyclic element shown in Fig. 3.

The model of commodity-cash flows is presented as a whole in Fig. 4.



According to the model, the level of taxation N on income is determined by the formula
N = (B + E) / (1 + E)in which all parameters are easily definable.

The capacity of the raw material production circuit together with the production of means of production, in total equal to W ₂ , is related to the capacity of the production circuit of consumer goods W _{1 by the} ratio W ₂ = W ₁ (K + E) / (1 − K) .

With a high "organic capital structure", i.e. when K approaches 1, it is seen that the power of the circuit W ₂ can be several times higher than the power W ₁. Cash turnover here is undesirable, since funds in mutual settlements of enterprises in this sphere should not enter the consumer goods market, in which only salaries should participate.

The average profitability of production in the country is determined by the ratio
(1 − N) (1 − K) / (1− (1 − N) (1 − K)) . And further on, everyone in their industry can correlate with the average profitability of their production, i.e. evaluate the ratio of your income to your expenses. The model provides sufficient guidance for pricing products, leaving the manufacturer with an estimate of expected demand.

All ratios are shown in the table:




The graphs below show the profitability (income / expense) and the ratio W ₂ / W ₁ for shares of government spendingE on the development and maintenance of infrastructure at 0; 0.1; 0.4 and 0.9 of the TP market volume. Charts are given in the absence of state employees and at their 75% share in the TP market.



As we see, with the share of state employees 75%, profitability cannot exceed 32% and averages about 10%. But this is a closed economy. Under the conditions of the world market and uneven economic development of countries or during the sale of energy resources, income from someone may be significantly higher than costs. The level of taxation required is shown in the table:

State expenses:	0	0.1	0.4	0.9
Share of state employees:	Taxation (%):
0	0	9	29th	47
0.5	fifty	55	64	74
0.75	75	77	82	87

With a real share of state employees, taxes should be at the level of 55 - 80%. If nominal taxes are lower, then the missing amounts are likely to get additional levies, or the development unevenness or sale of energy resources and the underestimated level of provision of a part of state employees play a role. However, the law is not written for a not closed, but through and blowing economy.

The question of the self-employed is also interesting. How permissive is it for them to evade taxes. It is clear that the necessary amount of taxes will still be collected, which means that additional tax burden will fall on honest entrepreneurs. Calculations show that their share of taxation will be N = (B + E) / (1+ E - L (1 – K)) . Where 0 ≤ L <1- this is just the share of those of all producers of consumer goods and services who, while providing services, do not pay taxes. If everyone pays, i.e. L = 0 , then taxes will be minimal and equal to N = (B + E) / (1+ E) .

Below are graphs of the level of taxes paid and the degree of profitability of their non-payment, depending on the share (%) of non-payers in the production of TP and services at various levels of costs (K = 0; 0.1; 0.2 and 0.5) for raw materials and equipment and with a share of payments to state employees = 0.5 of the TP market turnover. State costs for the development and maintenance of infrastructure are taken to be zero, but if they exist, taxes increase and the profitability of evasion increases.



Given the limited labor resources, the economy can grow only intensively due to the development of joint ventures, which determines their outstripping growth. Let the current level of use of the joint venture be equal to K _n , and the amount of funds for the development of the means of production for the period of investment development is q ∙ E ∙ W ₁ , where q is the share of investments from the total amount of funds S ₂ = E ∙ W ₁ allocated from the budget for this the same period for the development and maintenance of the economy, as well as defense, health, education, etc. If the development funds were used to the maximum benefit, while keeping the volume of goods unchanged, we should expect that now the same amount ∆ = q ∙ E ∙ W ₁in addition to the previous one, it will have to be transferred by manufacturers with a new K _{n + 1} for the use of raw materials, energy and a joint venture with a corresponding reduction in the number of workers who partially transferred from the sphere of production of TP to the sphere of production of a joint venture. And you can begin the next investment cycle.
Therefore, it can be written as follows:

W ₂ + ∆ = W ₁ (K _n + E) / (1 − K _n ) + q ∙ E ∙ W ₁ = W ₁ (K _{n + 1} + E) / (1 − K _{n + 1} )
Whence K _{n + 1} = (K _n (1 + E) + qE (1– K _n )) / ((1 + E) + qE (1– K _n )). By a= qE / (1 + E) we obtain:
K _{n + 1} = (K _n + a (1 − K _n )) / (1+ a (1 − K _n )) and 1 - K _{n + 1} = (1− K _n ) / (1+ a (1 − K _n )) and further
1 / (1 - K _{n + 1} ) = 1 / (1 − K _n ) + a . At the beginning, K ₀ = 0 and 1 / (1 - K ₁ ) = 1+ a , and therefore 1 / (1 − K _n ) = 1+ a · n

As a result, we obtain K _n = a · n / (1+ a N)
The maximum value a = qE / (1 + E) for q = 1 and E = 1 is 0.5, which is possible only in the absence of budget employees, when B = 0. The graph below shows the development dynamics of Kn = f (n) with a = 0.5 . If this value is several times smaller, multiply the value of argument n by the abscissa of the graph by the same amount. For the continuation curve, 25 should be added to the values ​​of n on the axis. It is clear that the graph has only an illustrative value.



In the model, the total cost of all TPs in the market is always Const, although its commodity saturation and supply should naturally grow as it develops. The balance of supply and demand is easiest to maintain by periodical universal indexation of salaries and pensions in proportion to the growth of the known total revolving value of the TP market. Although in the USSR, on the contrary, price reductions were practiced.

It should be borne in mind that the model cannot reflect the effectiveness and profitability of a particular strategy or capital structure, since it simply indicates the proper balanced ratio of parameters. At the same time, all participants in the equal share (for each ruble of their working capital) are allocated all TPs on the market.

Nevertheless, business owners (capitalists) have a clear advantage in benefits, which is not reflected in the model in any way, since wages and profits participate equally in the TP market and do not have an economic mechanism sharing their use. This is an exclusively legal aspect, which gives the capitalist the right to distribute revenue. Since Marxism has been mentioned, it is logical to touch upon surplus value. It is believed that labor creates surplus value due to the fact that its value is less than the value of the goods it creates, which the capitalist, using his right, appropriates.

Let us assume for simplicity that there is one capitalist “A” and 150 workers. Let the capitalist pay them all 100 rubles for the goods they produced, hoping to sell the goods more expensive. So there is no one. It will be possible to sell more expensively only if there is still a mass of people with money who want to buy. And since they are not there, then the workers will have to sell all the goods for the same 100 rubles. It turns out that simply appropriating a part of labor is not enough for the formation of surplus value. Moreover, the capitalist will not be satisfied with the appropriation of many consumer baskets of the worker - he will not eat so much “balance”.

The capitalist wants to consume luxury and creates demand for it. Immediately is the capitalist "B", which organizes the production of luxury. He hires 50 workers out of those 150 and pays 1p each, i.e. 50p salary. Capitalist “A” employs 100 workers and also pays them 1p each, i.e. 100 rub salary. He intends to sell the created goods for 150 rubles, receiving 50 rubles of profit.

The capitalist “B” and sells the created luxury for 75 rubles (the same 50% of the margin as the capitalist “A”), receiving 25 rubles of profit. The capitalist “A” buys the created luxury at 50 rubles, and the capitalist “B” buys at his profit at 25 rubles. And in the end , all working groups A and Bthey’ll have 150 rubles in their hands — that’s where they will buy all the goods for the common people, which will allow the capitalists to get the desired surplus value. And at the same time there is competition for the purchase of goods, which makes it possible to sell it at a higher cost of labor. Commodity cash flows are shown in Figure 5 below.



Thus, it is the production of luxury that is not consumed by the working people that allows the capitalists to receive surplus value. Mysterious for Marx, the rate of "surplus value", in the example of 50%, characterizes the prevailing share of production and raw materials spent on luxury production in society on the volume of resources for the production of necessary goods.



So, the essence of exploitation is that part of the productive and planetary resources is diverted to the production of goods and services that are inaccessible and therefore not needed by the bulk of the population.

The scope of the provision of services is already beginning to develop temporarily, for example, car sharing, etc. No less useful sherring can be useful in the field of means of production, where expensive equipment can often have very limited use, which affects the price of products, etc. There are problems of imbalance in the training of specialists, which is why many are forced to work outside their profession.

It’s time for people to start using the “second nature”, i.e. techno-cultural artificial environment similar to how they used to use, where it is still possible, natural nature - i.e. at the place of residence, temporarily, as needed, and often free of charge. It is advisable to use appliances, tools, apartments and furniture by renting them according to your needs, and it is advisable to make their service life as long as possible in order to save natural resources and the environment. Manpower (training specialists) is also not advisable to let it drift (as it is now), but to forecast the need and prepare them in advance. This can be done by an organization such as a recruiting agency (or a single trade union), with which the employer will conclude an agreement on the performance of work, as is now practiced with private security companies. It will be beneficial to everyonesince specialists with proper qualifications will be able to be involved only if necessary. Actually, external service (outsourcing) has been used for a long time, but these services also require a higher level of integration by region and industry.

It is known that in nature there is a practice of capturing hunting territory, the equivalent of which in society is the possession of sources of income. But, we note, in nature it is peculiar to predators who regulate the number of herbivores so that they do not gobble up all the grass and die out, etc. But in society there is no such obvious dependence. Here you can see an interesting topic about the formation of consciousness and morality against the background of bipolar animal instincts. But, I believe, in society, to solve the problems of rational regulation of vital resources, one should use information technologies, which have already become an effective factor in the culture of production. However, we agree or not with these considerations, the need for information support of economic activity is not canceled, as described below.

Obviously, the market should have information support, allowing to assess the demand for goods and services, which would orient technological developments and the need for relevant specialists. In particular, a description of scientific discoveries allowing automatic semantic interpretation of their essence would be useful, which would facilitate the rapid development of technology. The use of keywords that are not organized in a hierarchical system of knowledge that is currently adopted is not very effective.

In general, before starting physical actions and incurring material costs, it is advisable to correlate the desired image with the possibilities of its material embodiment. And this is impossible without taking into account the availability of all productive resources and material support. Actually, crises of overproduction or financial still accompany development in general. They can only be avoided by production planning. However, central planning cannot take into account all the nuances and sins by impoverishing the planned assortment (according to the experience of the USSR, and in the West at the same time excess oranges were destroyed, etc.). supplies and available means of production.

Unfortunately, so far we can only take into account and control what the programmers created special applications for. As the demand for such applications grows, more and more programmers will be required. On the other hand, access to data is strongly monopolized by large corporations and they also control and plan the development of digital services. So for now, little of the above is possible.

• Firstly, there is no such vast database integrating information about everything.
• Secondly, the integration and even just the exchange of data through linear files is complicated by interagency barriers and incomplete information about the location of the required.
• -, , , .

If we are to solve these information problems, then radically and without falling into dependence on any developer. In short, information on the assortment of all existing goods and resources (if not secret) should be accessible to everyone, and the means (services) of managing their data and integration with any available data of other owners should allow everyone to create their own applied tasks without resorting to specialists IT

Operational data should be available for statistics on the very fact of their appearance in the information space, and not only when they are included in the financial report sent to government agencies. In the diagram in Fig. 4, this is reflected in the fact that the revenue flows for consumer goods and salaries to employees are first directed to the "budget", and then to the recipients.
In more detail the problem, as well as approaches and the sequence of measures to solve it, I outlined in the article " How to Bypass the Mines of Information Technology ." But judging by the comments, the people did not really understand what was actually being offered. And most importantly, as I understand it, IT experts do not see the point in allowing users to do without them. However, just then a wide front will open for their activities, because everyone will be able to develop various services within the framework of a single interface and instantly and automatically receive payment upon their use at least somewhere by users. The entire range of existing services with a description of the possibilities, thanks to the organizational structure laid down in the basis of the proposed technologies, will be available to everyone.

The task will just be to make the number of users as large as possible, and therefore the development by them of their applied tasks in complexity should not particularly differ from using an engineering calculator or Excel spreadsheets. Possible technological solutions to this problem are also described in the aforementioned article.

The author would appreciate comments and suggestions.