Get best of the week

Results of the contest of sofa experts: the rules of scientific poking

Everything once comes to an end, even self-isolation and the coronavirus (yes, yes, they are not forever). Our competition of sofa experts was no exception (this is a joke, in fact, everything is serious) - on May 15, it crept up unnoticed. We got 402 unique forecasts for five indicators and their accuracy is impressive, as well as the level of expertise of Habr’s readers: exchange indicators and the number of RUVDS servers are simply amazing with the number of participants who came close to 99%. Therefore, today we are summing up with joy, surprise and pride in your analytical abilities. Because no matter how you twist, and without thinking and not having studied the data, such an exact hit is impossible to do.


What does it mean to tear a sofa? Charts were built, discussed, the owner prepared a forecast for Habr

Considering that we "sowed" the contests among Habr users, we conclude that Habr users took part in it. We liked the contest because of its transparency and honesty - it was difficult to win something in it: neither the number of subscribers in social networks, nor the ability to write tricky scripts played any role - everyone checked their luck. Although, knowing the Habr audience, we fully admit that the Habr users who took first places did not so much count on luck as they applied their analysis and forecasting skills. Well, being a mathematician and an analyst is not prohibited by the rules of the competition - this is Habr, baby.

Since there were only 5 questions, let’s go through each one.

Questions


Question 1. The cost of a barrel (in USD) of Brent crude oil per MOEX futures contract by May 15, 2020


Our competition almost coincided with the period of the most noticeable fluctuations in the price of oil in history - it was difficult to predict what would happen to it tomorrow - either a few tens of dollars per barrel, or again go to negative values.

On Day X, the cost was 32.88 - one of the users indicated 32.85, one by one for 32.81 and 32.95.


Chart with answers:


Question 2. The dollar exchange rate on May 15, 2020


There are most experts in economics, as well as in the oil industry - any user will tell you the cost of a dollar for any day of the year. And even numerous factors during the period of the competition will not hurt here. It is understandable - our people are hardened in analytics of the period of complete pi .... period of economic instability.

The dollar exchange rate on May 15, 2020 amounted to 73.9298 - one user made a forecast at 73.92, one at 73.95, one at 73.91 and three at 73.9.


 
Chart with answers:


Question 3. The number of coronavirus survivors worldwide as of May 15


In the competition, we decided to use the most “optimistic” number of all numbers associated with coronavirus - the number of people who recovered. For greater complexity, they decided to take the whole world, and not just Moscow or Russia. Different sources give different numbers and it is unlikely that we will ever find out the truth, but we immediately said that the results will be summarized on this page . There was a small feature - the number of people who recovered on the right day is displayed only on the next day. Therefore, although the competition ended on May 15, we only found out the correct answer on May 16 - including for this reason the results of the competition were postponed.

The correct answer is 1,637,067. The closest to the bullseye were two users who gave forecasts of 1,638,758 and 1,632,408. Quite accurately, given the daily scatter of recoveries, from 30 to 65 thousand per day. 


Chart with answers:


Question 4. Will self-isolation be removed


As in the joke about the dinosaur, there were two options, 50% to 50%: either they’ll remove it or not. The only difference is whether the participants received 1000 points for the correct answer or not. Despite the fact that only 33 participants believed in the removal of self-isolation and that at the very height of the competition, the president of Russia started some kind of movement, self-isolation remained in most regions. Some kind of self-isolation of Schrödinger. 


Question 5. The number of servers


One of the most difficult questions - if only because on our site we simply display the number of created servers, without graphs and dynamics. Accordingly, it is difficult to calculate how many servers will be in 10 days - you need to either watch at least a day (and lose precious time) or indicate something at random.

The correct answer was: 197 593 servers. The closest were several users who made a forecast in 197 592 and 197 654. Although it’s a pity, of course, that not 419 736 (as Alexander Ivanov suggested) or even 89 150 000 (as Les Onishchenko intended) - thanks for believing in us, friends :)

Chart with answers:



As we promised, among the entire elite of sofa expert troops, we will choose the 20 best with the most points. And among them, we will choose the winner in a random way - in order to exclude the version that someone made it to the finalists dishonestly. The video of the draw can be viewed at the link .

Congratulations to the winner, he became a user with the nickname user_323 . He got the iPhone SE 2020, which will now go to the medalist right in Chuvashia!

The remaining participants who followed the results were given the opportunity to receive a small bonus in the form of 500 rubles for the balance, which they can spend on virtual server rental. So, just participating is also sometimes useful.

Thank you all for your participation and attention!




PS
Promotional codes - promotional codes, but do not forget about our additional bonus - to all new customers, we give the super convenient ISPmanager server control panel as a gift, for three months from the date of registration. When else to start a vpsku if not now?

More articles:


All Articles