Get best of the week

Estimation of the cost of commercial ships. Arithmetic and common sense

Widespread misconception, in my opinion, about the cost of space on commercial manned ships Crew Dragon and Starliner. Ships from private firms SpaceX and Boeing, which are implementing the program for the return of flights of "American astronauts on American ships from American land." For this purpose, a new format has been created for NASA to work with “private owners” - “fixed price contracts” for “fixed volume of services”.

Evaluation and comparison of the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) is possible and necessary. There is an alternative option - the purchase of a similar "service" from Russia. What NASA has been doing for ten long years. My assessment and conclusion:

  • The cost of “import substitution” of manned flights to the ISS will cost the US budget twice (minimum) more than the continuation of flights to the Soyuz spacecraft.
  • The cost of 1 seat on Crew Dragon is $ 131 million. The cost of one flight is $ 525 million.
  • The cost of 1 seat on Starliner is $ 206 million. The cost of one flight is $ 825 million.
  • The CCP program has nothing to do with budget savings. This is a political, and absolutely correct, decision by the US government.

Visual representation below. Infographic made in the format of "Friday" (abuse of the eyes :). The initial data are confirmed by documents. My conclusions.



Comment:

  1. The data for the calculation are taken according to the most favorable option for NASA. For example, the cost of the Soyuz spacecraft is maximum.
  2. Excluded are additional NASA budget expenditures that occurred due to a delay in the SSR program (for three years). Purchase of 12 seats on the Soyuz spacecraft for $ 1 billion at an average price of 80 million.
  3. The total cost of the CCP program ($ 8.5 billion) is 363 million more than the amount of SpaceX and Boeing. These are payments by Sierra Nevada, which did not lead to the creation of a manned ship. But these are program costs.
  4. I do not want to become a SpaceX hater, but “Amicus plato, sed magis amica est veritas” :)

Made a legend for infographics with an explanation of what and where.



Since the assessment was based on NASA's audit of the CCP program, I made a translation of part of this report. It was in this report that the prices for seats in commercial ships were announced - 55 million for SpaceX and 90 million for Boeing. The calculation method is given. In my opinion, such an assessment is possible (master-master), but it is a manipulation. The real price of space for NASA will be known after the end of the CCtCap program in the 26th and the adoption of the new CCtCap 2 program to continue flights. But in any case, 48 NASA astronauts on the ISS will cost the US budget twice the cost of the alternative.

P.S. . . :). - , « ». .. ( ) . , ( ) . , «» . . , , CCP. .
, , :). .


Appendix

NASA Commercial Manned Flight Program Audit Report.
Part of the document with an overall assessment and program status.
To understand the methodology for calculating the cost of space on a commercial manned ship. The risk assessment part and recommendations are missing.
Caution: the text is a Google translation. The American system of measures and weights is used.



...

Introduction


Over the past two decades, 85 flights to the International Space Station (ISS or Station) have been completed. The ISS was visited by 239 astronauts delivered by the NASA Space Shuttle or the Roskosmos Soyuz spacecraft. Since the end of the Space Shuttle program in 2011, the Soyuz spacecraft has remained the only means of delivering astronauts to the ISS and returning to Earth. As of July 2019, NASA acquired 70 seats on Soyuz for $ 3.9 billion. This provided the United States with flights of 70 American astronauts and their partners to and from the Station.

When planning a manned space exploration after the shuttle shutdown, NASA switched from the traditional approach to working with private aerospace companies to create launch vehicles and ships fully owned and operated by the government (for example, Apollo and Space Shuttle) commercial contracts under which NASA pays a fixed price to private companies for the development of launch vehicles and manned spacecraft for flights to the ISS, which are bought as a service. Just as private companies currently provide cargo delivery services to the ISS under fixed price contracts. In 2010, NASA entered into agreements with US aerospace companies to develop commercial technologies and manned spacecraft with the aim of ensuring safety, reliability,and cost-effective people flying to the ISS and returning back. Since the implementation of such projects was not expected earlier than 2015, NASA planned to buy space on Soyuz spacecraft in order to maintain the ISS U.S. manned program in the required quantity before the start of commercial manned spacecraft flights (1).

NASA's Commercial Crew Program is intended to stimulate the commercial market for low-Earth orbit manned space flights. As of August 2019, NASA has allocated approximately $ 5.5 billion out of the $ 8.5 billion planned for this program. However, the program is being implemented with delays of several years relative to the planned start date for flights. After 5 years of development under fixed-price contracts, two contractors: Boeing and Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) are working on their first demonstration flights with the crew and the further goal of completing up to 12 operational missions for NASA. It is planned that they will provide access to the ISS at least 48 astronauts in the period until 2024.However, both contractors are confronted with various technical and safety issues that need to be resolved before crew operations on the ISS begin.

Given the cost and importance of a commercial manned flight program, our audit is conducted to evaluate the program. In particular, we examined delays in work schedules for contractors, the ISS, and NASA's pricing and strategies. See Appendix A for methodology.

General situation


In 2004, President George W. Bush announced a new space exploration concept that, among other things, included NASA's proposals for providing access to the ISS and low Earth orbit for crews and cargoes by vehicles of commercial partners. Congress subsequently adopted the 2005 NASA Authorization Act, instructing the Agency to enter into agreements with U.S. companies to conduct research and development of manned and cargo ships (2). In response to this law, NASA created the Commercial Crew and Cargo Program Office in 2005, and then created the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) office in 2011. The CCP Directorate (HEOMD) is split between the Kennedy and Johnson space centers and has around 360 full-time managers, government employees, engineers, and support staff.

For over 20 years, the ISS has served as a laboratory, observatory, and factory in low Earth orbit around the Earth, giving people the opportunity to live and work in space. The size of an almost football field, the ISS weighs almost a million pounds and consists of two separate segments: the Russian segment operated by Roscosmos and the American orbital segment (USOS) operated by NASA and its international partners: Canadian Space Agency, European Space Agency, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency. NASA spends between 3 and 4 billion dollars annually on the ISS, or about half the annual budget of the manned space program, including payments for the transport of people and cargo.

To operate the station and conduct research, NASA and its partners supported shift teams of three to four astronauts in the USOS US segment, while Roscosmos supported two or three astronauts in the Russian segment. USOS crew members typically work on the ISS for approximately 5 months to limit the negative health effects of extended stays in zero gravity. However, two astronauts remained at the station for a year to study the health effects of long-term flight conditions. With the goal of returning to the moon and, ultimately, flying to Mars, the ISS plays a key role in understanding and reducing the health risks of astronauts and the operational characteristics of the equipment needed for a long space flight, as well as developing the testing technology necessary for such trips.

«»


The Soyuz spacecraft of the Russian Space Agency has been delivering crews to the ISS since November 2000. Originally designed for astronaut flights to the moon, the Soyuz is capable of transporting three crew members. Each Soyuz is certified for docking with the ISS and being in its composition for no more than 200 days (3). Currently, Roscosmos provides the only opportunity for astronaut flights on the ISS. At least one Soyuz is always docked to the Station in case of emergency evacuation, but usually two ships are docked so that up to six cosmonauts work at the station. Since 2006, NASA has acquired 70 seats worth approximately US $ 3.9 billion, including 5 seats purchased through Boeing for US $ 373.5 million (4). Overall, NASA paid an average price of $ 55.4 million per seat for 70 completed and planned missions from 2006 to 2020 with prices starting at 21,3 to 86 million dollars for each round trip. After 2017, when private contractors planned to launch manned flights, NASA used or contracted 12 additional seats in the Soyuz, worth about $ 1 billion, or an average of $ 79.7 million per seat.


1. «» , .

The beginning of flights of commercial manned ships will lead to a decrease in the need for flights of the Soyuz spacecraft. Starting in January 2020, Roscosmos plans to reduce Soyuz flights from two intersecting flights to one flight every 6 months, reducing the crew aboard the ISS from six to three, assuming that commercial manned spacecraft will not begin flights from April 2020 . If commercial manned spacecraft begin flying in 2020, the ISS can continuously support a crew of at least seven members. The Soyuz ship and one of the commercial ships will be constantly docked to the Station. However, if commercial flights, ISS officials warned that Soyuz flights to deliver a US team or partner to the station.NASA and Roscosmos continue to explore the possibility of safely extending the Soyuz spacecraft at the Station beyond a maximum of 200 days.


Table 1. The planned flight schedule of the Soyuz spacecraft and commercial vehicles, as well as the projected number of crew members at the station. September 2019

Note: red cells indicate scenarios that pose a risk to ISS operations due to crew reduction, yellow cells indicate regular operations, and green cells indicate optimal conditions based on the current capabilities of the ISS.
NASA has not yet determined whether the fourth place on board American commercial ships will be given to a member of USOS or Roscosmos.

Commercial Manned Ship Contracts


After the initial involvement of eight companies in the development of technologies, subsystems for studying the possibility of flying Space Act Agreements, in 2014, NASA chose commercial companies for concluding fixed-price contracts. Under the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) program, contracts are concluded with Boeing and SpaceX for performing space flights, developing and conducting demonstration missions to the ISS (5). CCtCap contracts set fixed prices for development work and test flights, crew flights to the ISS and additional research. As of May 2019, the Boeing and SpaceX contracts were valued at $ 4.3 billion and $ 2.5 billion, respectively. Of these, development costs and test flights totaled $ 2.2 billion for Boing and $ 1.2 billion for SpaceX.For manned flights to the ISS, NASA awarded each contractor six flights to and from the ISS. Assuming four astronauts in flight and using publicly available information, the estimated average cost per seat is about $ 90 million for Boing and about 55 million for SpaceX, potentially providing cost savings compared to current Soyuz prices (6). In addition, each contract includes up to $ 150 million for additional research as requested by NASA, such as additional parachute tests on return capsules. As of May 2019, Boeing had paid $ 32 million, and SpaceX $ 49 million for additional research. Although contracts have a fixed fixed price, changes in requirements, technical flaws,or schedule delays can lead to fair budget adjustments (7). Appendix A describes the general financing of the crew’s commercial activities from 2010 to 2024.

The crew mission pricing is determined by the price table in each contract, which determines prices based on when and how many missions are ordered. The contracts also indicate the time required to prepare the mission for launch. It is 32 months for Boing and 24 months for SpaceX. When the CCtCap contracts were concluded in 2014, mission prices were originally based on the calendar year for which the flight was planned. But during a discussion in 2016 on order planning for the third to sixth missions, both contractors expressed concern about the ambiguity of the text in the contract under which NASA could order missions without authorization to process (ATP), the formal procedure necessary to initiate interim payments.NASA amended both pricing contracts for each mission based on a calendar year for which contractors' concerns about timely payments are removed (8). This contract change allowed NASA to order future missions in December 2016 using pricing based on the forecast for the coming years. NASA pays each contractor a fixed price using interim payments for key milestones, such as ship readiness, launch and successful mission. For each mission, NASA pays up to 75 percent of the total mission cost until launch. The CCtCap contract prohibits payments for the following missions if the contractor was unable to demonstrate its capabilities by completing a development phase called the ISS Certification Review. This is a limitation, for example,forbade Boeing and SpaceX to receive payments in 2016 for third-sixth missions until the stage of consideration of the ISS certification project has been completed (10).

Commercial carriers for manned ships


After completion of test flights and before regular flights to the ISS, commercial launch vehicles Boeing and SpaceX must be certified by NASA. Boeing plans to use the Launch Complex 41 of the U.S. Air Force at Cape Canaveral in Florida to launch the Atlas V rocket and launch its spacecraft Crew Space Transportation-100 Starliner (Starliner) into low Earth orbit, where the spacecraft will be docked with the ISS (11). Although Atlas V has a long history of successful flights, it has never been used to fly humans into space. Starliner is a new and previously non-flying manned spacecraft.

SpaceX will use the Space Shuttle launch Pad 39A at the Kennedy Space Center to launch the upgraded Falcon 9 rocket with the Dragon 2 spacecraft to deliver astronauts to the ISS. For manned missions, NASA will need to incorporate the updated Falcon 9 into the certification process. Since 2010, the rocket successfully launched SpaceX cargo spacecraft during 17 missions to deliver cargo to the ISS. During this period, SpaceX had one crash at startup. The last two cargo missions under the first contract will be completed at the end of 2019 and at the beginning of 2020 on the Dragon 1 cargo ship. Starting from the 21st year, SpaceX plans to carry out cargo flights to the ISS scheduled from mid-2020 on the Dragon 2 cargo ship configuration.


2. .
OIG , , , . (6) .


:

1. , , 2011 2013 , 2017 .
2. NASA Authorization Act of 2005, Pub. L. No. 109-155, § 502, 119 Stat. 2895-2945 (2005).
3. «» 200- - «» 200 .
4. 2017 , 373,5 . $ 74,7 . Boeing «», , «» , - « ».
5. 1958 , , . 2006 1,5 . . : Alliant Techsystems Inc.; Blue Origin, LLC; Boeing; Excalibur Almaz, Inc.; Paragon Space Development Corporation; Sierra Nevada Corporation; SpaceX; and United Launch Alliance.
6. . 2020 , . , .
7. , , . CCtCap, H.20 .
8. , , , . , . .
9. , , ISS Design Certification Review . , , , ; ; , , .
10. 2018. , OIG 2013 , , . OIG, Commercial Resupply Contracts (IG-13-016, June 13, 2013)..).
11. Atlas V United Launch Alliance, Boeing Lockheed Martin.

.

We conducted this audit from February 2019 to November 2019 in accordance with the adopted state audit standards. These standards require that, when planning and conducting the audit, we obtain sufficient and appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable basis for our conclusions and conclusions. We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for our findings and conclusions based on the objectives of our audit.

The overall objective of this audit was to evaluate manned and ISS programs, with emphasis on Boing, SpaceX and Soyuz space flights. We also evaluated the schedule of manned flights, providing access to the Station and the CCtCap contract price tables. In addition, we considered technical risks and made suggestions, since they are related to a common goal. We also interviewed HEOMD, CCP staff on progress in ensuring constant and safe crew access to the ISS. We reviewed relevant laws, rules, and policies to identify established rules and issues for CCP collaboration. We reviewed NASA requirements and criteria for CCP ...

Appendix B.

Since 2010, the CCP program has gone through several stages of development, while NASA has funded and plans to fund activities to develop the commercial capabilities of manned flights for eight companies totaling $ 8.5 billion.

Round 1. Commercial crew - (CCDev1). The study of the commercial possibility of crew transportation began in February 2010, when the Agency allocated a total of $ 50 million under the Space Act Agreement, which were received by five companies Blue Origin, Boeing, Paragon Space Development Corporation, Sierra Nevada Corporation (Sierra Nevada), and the United Launch Alliance to fund research and development of key technologies and systems.
Round 2. Commercial crew - (CCDev2).Beginning in April 2011, NASA has funded four companies under supplementary agreements worth $ 316 million: Blue Origin, Boeing, Sierra Nevada, and SpaceX to continue to develop its space manned flight systems. NASA also entered into unsecured agreements with three other companies: Alliant Techsystems, Excalibur Almaz Inc. and the United Launch Alliance, which will provide technical assistance in developing the concept of space transport.

Round 3. Integrated capabilities of the commercial crew - (CCiCap). In August 2012, NASA allocated Boeing, Sierra Nevada and SpaceX a total of $ 1.168 billion to continue developing and critically analyzing the project for each contractor in preparation for the upcoming ISS crew transportation contracts.

Round 4. Product Certification Contract - (CPC). In December 2012, the agency awarded a total of $ 30 million to Boeing, Sierra Nevada, and SpaceX through CPC to complete certification for each contractor.

Round 5. Commercial Carriage Opportunity - (CCtCap). In September 2014, to complete the development of Boeing and SpaceX, NASA entered into $ 6.9 billion fixed-price contracts for commercial manned astronaut flights to the ISS and back for 12 missions by 2024.


Figure 8. Funding history of developing a commercial manned program for Boeing, SpaceX, and Sierra. Total amounts.

...


Original: IG-20-005.pdf

More articles:


All Articles