Dear Readers,
I am the head of Data Science at the British Transport Police, and one of the tasks of our department is to optimally allocate staff depending on the crime rate, which, in turn, depends on the flow of passengers. As you understand, the flow of passengers will change rapidly as soon as the government decides to remove quarantine or weaken quarantine measures. The question naturally arises - when will the pandemic end and how to prepare for a return to normal life.
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The pandemic COVID-19, a potentially severe acute respiratory infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (2019-nCoV), has officially been announced in the world. There is a lot of information on Habré on this topic - always remember that it can be both reliable / useful, and vice versa.
We urge you to be critical of any published information.
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I will not bore readers with formulas - you can find them in the source code, in the links above and in the English version of the article . It should only be noted that the script forms a daily (non-cumulative) forecast, therefore, to calculate the total number of patients, a cumulative function is used.
The script has shown its adequacy and applicability both to the organization in which I work, and to the UK as a whole. It seems to me that the forecast formed for other countries looks quite adequate.
I would appreciate your feedback and constructive criticism.