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How coronavirus will accelerate the fourth industrial revolution

One of the pluses of the pandemic is the ability to experiment with technology and use new approaches in joint work that brings together different countries. All this can lead to a safer, more sustainable and barrier-free future in different parts of the world.

The theory of intermittent equilibrium, proposed in 1972 by biologists Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge, states that populations of living organisms experience a surge of evolutionary changes in short stressful periods of time [1] . Gould and Eldredge challenged the notion of evolution as a gradual process, arguing that evolution occurs in short leaps when species find themselves in an uncomfortable environment and especially in a crisis situation.

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The human species is undergoing such a period right now: this is the Covid-19 pandemic. The intense pressure experienced by individuals, organizations and societies as a whole accelerates the fourth industrial revolution (4IR), blurring the boundaries between the physical, digital and biological worlds [2] . The state of emergency we are in makes us realize the need for structural adjustment of our interaction with the environment and think about the fact that we are all one global community.

The pandemic makes us all appreciate the active use of 21st century technologies: artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, social media, digital learning platforms, augmented and virtual reality, drones, 3D printing and much more.

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This unprecedented situation leads us to rely even more on the latest digital, biological and physical technologies, and at the same time forces us to invent new ways to use them to create economic benefits.

More than 7 billion people live in countries that severely restrict the movement of citizens [3] , and more than a third of the world is in quarantine [4] . In response to this, structures that have resisted change for decades have moved into the digital realm. Collaborate via video conferencing? Old song. Distance learning? Now there are one and a half billion students on it [5]. Organizations of all stripes are discovering new technical capabilities, mastering technology and developing their business models at a speed that a couple of months ago could not have been imagined.

The virus forces the use of new technological paradigms in healthcare worldwide. Epidemiological communities track the coronavirus using low-cost genome sequencing technologies [6] , and they are also used in the development of the most promising vaccines [7] . Scientists and doctors use machine learning to search repositories of scientific articles published about Covid-19, for example, 47,000 works are indexed by the Covid-19 Open Research Dataset (CORD-19) Explorer [8]. Spontaneous communities of enthusiasts and manufacturers produce tens of thousands of protective masks with the help of 3D printing to help doctors working at the forefront [9] . And for the first time in history, Apple and Google have joined forces to develop a contact tracking application for installation in smartphone operating systems [10] .

This surge of innovation began when Covid-19 forced humanity to enter uncharted territory. And we know that in historical periods of sharp imbalance, organizations and economic systems had to make incredible efforts to survive.

But we, modern people, are creatures who, with the help of technology, intentionally and on a large scale, remake the environment for our own needs. Scientists have even called the current era “anthropocene,” because humanity is the dominant force that changes the ecosystems of the entire planet. Consequently, those who are able to successfully adapt will not only thrive in conditions of an accelerated technical revolution - they will determine its direction.

The question is which way she will go.

Environmental activist Greta Thunberg sought to “undermine the system” [11] . This is exactly what happened as a result of the pandemic, and now we know how the sharp reduction in hydrocarbon emissions looks like and how much it costs [12]. And overcoming one of the turning points of climate change may well prove to be tens of times more expensive [13] .

Will significant funds intended to stimulate the economy, which are now allocated by the governments of many countries, be used, inter alia, to give new professions to those who have lost their jobs during the technological revolution and thereby support the global “green economy”?

Or, in a desperate attempt to return to a “normal” state of affairs, will governments weaken environmental standards and begin to stimulate excessive consumption for short-term economic growth? [14]

The pandemic clearly shows the level of cooperation so closely connected communities must rise to deal with the consequences and recover from a systemic, exponentially growing crisis. And the fact that borders are not an obstacle for the virus provide another argument in favor of the fact that humanity should engage in a radical revision of the principles and mechanisms of global cooperation.

The crisis should spur us all to mastering a new kind of globalization of the 21st century, in which the priority is the joint contribution to global public goods, including technology and ethics, for the benefit of all mankind [15]. Such global integration should give market participants from the public, private and non-profit sectors around the world the opportunity to work together more efficiently and stably.

This pandemic has several positive effects. And one of them is the opportunity to experiment with technologies and use new approaches in joint work uniting different countries. All this can lead to a safer, more sustainable and barrier-free future in different parts of the world.

Joint research work, targeted “hacking of the future" [16]and strong political leadership will help overcome the pandemic - and at the same time, they can reduce social inequality, prepare society for the effects of climate change and bring the environment into a more stable state. We must create a new intermittent balance - to make the most of the fourth industrial revolution, while not forgetting about equality and environmental sustainability.

The Covid-19 pandemic is an important test for humanity as a species, an unprecedented window of opportunity. Can we use it?

Sanjeev Hagram , dean of the School of Business at Arizona State University Thunderbird
Nicholas Davies , a professor of the School of Business at Arizona State University Thunderbird

article published on the website The Economist Intelligence Unit, a research division of The Economist Group, which publishes the magazine of the same name.

Translation: Valentina Ingotsoc (no4naya) for the channel " Rationally about coronavirus "

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