Foreword
Today COVID19 is a hype theme. But writing a note on this subject was not inspired by a topic, but by a love of numbers, analysis and mathematics. Evaluate not on the principle of "garbage all this" or "aaaa! We will all die! â, And approach in terms of numbers. And already draw conclusions from this.It is probably difficult to find a person in the world who would not hear about the new coronavirus, it is also the âcrownâ, COVID19, SARS-CoV-2, 2019-nCoV and a bunch of other, less well-known names. It is discussed at home, at work, on TV, radio, in newspapers, Skype, the Internet, telegram, Watsape, Viber and all other possible communication options. There are people who have earned on masks and antiseptics, there are scammers doing pseudo-cleaning, pseudo-tests and other methods of divorce. During his appearance, the opinion of many changed in one direction or another, information about him was overgrown with myths, and conspiracy theories of his appearance appeared. In general, people's imagination works better than analytical thinking. I decided not to think about who is right and who is to blame, who created it and for what purpose. I decided to just evaluate his real danger and what awaits us if we fight with him or we donât,after all, maybe the game is not worth the candle.All estimates and calculations were made on the basis of official published and hourly updated data:â GithubI will try not to overload a bunch of numbers, tables and graphs. He cited only by necessity.
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Sofa analytics with a deuce in mathematics
According to probability theory, it was believed thateven a monkey for a million years,accidentally striking the keys, would write âWar and Peaceâ.Or a million monkeys in a year.The proliferation of the Internet has completely refuted this theory.(mathematical joke)Actually, the joke above is really based on the âendless monkey theoremâ, so there is some truth in every joke.Due to the availability of local and mobile networks, the sea of ââinexpensive smartphones, tablets, computers, the Internet is simply awash with âspecialistsâ of any profile. Even the milk on the lips has not dried out, but they are already climbing on to discuss serious topics. With their "conjectures" and "evidence", confusing the warm with the soft, they get into such wilds that the ears are curled up. And then they grow up ... but they donât get smarter, since learning is a difficult task, there you need to THINK! âAnd I will become a specialist without it,â they decide and continue to express their thinking of a supposedly specialist with their missing knowledge.So, how many such pictures were in February and early March (I wonât publish âevery dayâ, the essence is clear in two):March 9 publishedMarch 11And all because with such analytics - full J.This chart displays the average number of deaths per day from various diseases. Only these deaths are relatively stable in number or have a sinusoidal graph, for example, increasing in winter and decreasing in summer.But the spread of coronavirus is exponential, so the number of deaths is growing similarly. To average âhead-onâ when at the beginning of the year there were 1-2 deaths per day, and after a month 200 in total, while ~ 40 only in the last day and increases further, receiving â6 people die on the dayâ - this is not something deuce in mathematics. Count! And even zero. In our school, a math teacher set 0, and 1, and 1-, and 1+. Even a deuce had to be earned. Zero knowledge - zero and score.Thanks to such âspecialistsâ, when in April, when I was working on an article, I wanted to take this plate, simply without data on coronavirus, to separately show the growth of the dead compared with other diseases, I did not find it, although the site was correct. I searched for a long time until I stumbled:March 26: Removed Average Deaths Per Day (the chart was meant as a daily tracker, but was being used to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic).In Russian: the schedule was removed, as it was used by illiterates to reduce the severity of the pandemic.I had to use âphotoshopâ (for Adobe: a different freeware editor was used) and in one of these âoldâ ones - remove the line with coronavirus. I will post the diagram with him separately.Now let's compare the number of people dying every day in the world from various diseases and how these data have changed in the current coronavirus every day:
Mortality vs Mortality
What is the mortality rate? Or lethality? And what is the difference and what to focus on?Mortality is the number of people who die from a cause from the total number of people in a group. Most often, this indicator is calculated per 1000 population.Mortality is the proportion of deaths from exposure to a particular environmental factor in the total number of people who have been exposed to this factor.From wikipedia: - , . 1000 300, 100 , 10 %, - 33 %. 1000 50 , 40, 4 %, â 80 %. , .
It turns out that we need to evaluate mortality. Mortality, due to the fact that almost all countries have launched mechanisms to combat or deter the spread of the virus, is still low. After all, so far ânot so muchâ has been infected - just 1.6 million at 8 billion. the population. This is 0.02%. For comparison, 30% of the world's population fell ill with the Spaniard, thanks to silence about the epidemic (even the name of the virus did not come from the place of occurrence, but only due to the fact that in Spain the media were not under the cap of the state and there was freedom of speech and the newspapers of this country were the first to trumpet an epidemic that, it turns out, has been raging for several months around the world, but by the time it was publicized - the scale was already disastrous). Now is the 21st century,smartphones have 2/3 of the population and to keep the dissemination of information even if the state wants it is already an almost impossible task (a vivid example is unsuccessful attempts to block telegrams in Russia, in which there are a lot of channels with hundreds of thousands of subscribers). Only the media are now controlled in the form of television channels, radio and paper options. Internet is not close. But precisely because of this, information about new epidemics is spreading much faster than it was in the Middle Ages, when messengers with information about the plague and smallpox brought this plague and smallpox.But precisely because of this, information about new epidemics is spreading much faster than it was in the Middle Ages, when messengers with information about the plague and smallpox brought this plague and smallpox.But precisely because of this, information about new epidemics is spreading much faster than it was in the Middle Ages, when messengers with information about the plague and smallpox brought this plague and smallpox.But history shows that everything is forgotten. Preventive measures are implemented only where they have encountered this not so long ago. That is why they reacted relatively quickly in China and South Korea - even in our digital age, they have already dealt with SARS-COV, MERS and other outbreaks. But it is there. Therefore, the measures were quick. There should not be forced to wear masks. It is enough to declare the need. The rest of the world looked at it like a show. Now the show came to them, and the world was not ready to participate in this show.Something distracted. Some believe that mortality is the number of deaths to the total number of infected. April data looks like this:That is 5-6%. The numbers, of course, are 10 times higher than with seasonal flu, but to someone it seems quite acceptable.But as explained above - this is not at all right - this approach assumes that all patients who have not yet recovered and have not died - will necessarily get sick and survive, which, of course, is a profound mistake.As we found out, mortality must be assessed. If you take it forehead - the number of dead and the number of recovered - the figures are awesome - 21%. Below are the numbers from the beginning of April to this day.The figures are terrifying, but they are also erroneous. To take data on the number of dead and recovered on a particular day is an approach that is not entirely correct and that is why. Symptoms appear in a person in a week after 1-2-3. As a result, a person whose virus leads to a severe course of the disease falls under the control of doctors only when the disease makes itself felt and given the similarity of symptoms with a cold and the development of symptoms on an increasing basis - often when the form is already severe. At the same time, the entire environment with which the person was in contact is tested for the virus. And if the disease takes on a severe form - death occurs fairly quickly - within 3-5-7 days. But a person is cured from the moment of detection - not so fast - monitoring of news of who came from where, when someone became infected and when who was cured - give figures ~ 3 weeks.Therefore, mortality should be taken with a delta between these data (dead and recovered) in the region of 2 weeks ....In general, while 1.5 weeks leisurely wrote a note, calculating the formula more correctly, the growth of infected people finally moved from geometric to arithmetic progression and the real mortality rate can be estimated much more easily - by the actual average number of infected people over the past 10 days and the number of deaths for the same time. So, the following data from April 8 to 17: 844 996 sick and 71 956 dead. This gives us 8.5% - just such a lethality at the moment. It completely coincides with my more complicated calculations, where I took into account the geometric growth factor. In my calculations, it turned out 8-9.5%Of course, a lot of things affect mortality - the number of people with weak immunity and, accordingly, the percentage with a severe course of the disease. As well as how many patients, medicine can digest. In Italy, for example, patients who have a mild form of the disease are accommodated in exempted hotels. With us - they are sent to home quarantine. Well, how do we abide by it spongers - and so everyone knows, I will not open America here. This is most evident in the following events:Action:Total:But itâs not clear to me - is it a fight against coronavirus or a new option for replenishing the budget?Is it easy to get sick?
And the truth - is there any sense in quarantine, masks? There is a flu every year "raging", but we do not introduce quarantine, and as a result they get a tiny percentage (some do not get sick because of vaccinations, but their number is generally a tiny percentage). Perhaps the devil is not so terrible? Can be appreciated.The very first ship was a huge cruise ship Diamond Princess. 17 decks - a casino, a theater, a nightclub, a swimming pool, a fitness center and many other interesting things - any whim for your money. It is very convenient for assessing - the number of people is precisely known, not like with illegal immigrants in cities. The quantity is sufficient not to be a small sample. And the propagation speed is very clear. So, on January 20, patient â0â boarded the ship (it was zero for the ship). January 25, went ashore, the ship went on. On February 1, the null patient was ill, diagnosed with coronavirus. The princess did not seem to have patients at that time (Ha!). But no one canceled the concept of the incubation period, so when the cruise came to its end on February 3 and arrived at the port of Yokohama, the Japanese authorities said - sit in quarantine for a couple of weeks, you need to make sure that everyone is healthy.Sailing into the âfree swimmingâ several thousand infected is tantamount to killing their own country. And they were not mistaken. February 4 - already 10 patients, after 11th week - 135, another week - 542. And this despite the fact that on February 4 some rules of quarantine were introduced on the ship - to sit in cabins, rarely go out for a walk and not for long. What do we have in the end. The zero patient was on the liner for 5 days, from the date of its landing to the introduction of quarantine - 2 weeks. The number of infected - 20%. Japan did the right thing by introducing quarantine on the ship, and did not let seven hundred infected at once (yes, after a week the quarantine, which Japan decided to naturally extend, the number of coronavirus infected surpassed the number 700), otherwise it would have long headed the anti-TOP countries.Another recent example:â Link40%. And this is definitely not the limit, we just realized it relatively quickly - on April 8th we were suspected, probably at the same time they took some measures on the aircraft carrier (social distance, less likely to communicate - we knew about the virus and its capabilities on the ship). On the 12th they had already arrived at the port and checked and divided everyone, someone even in intensive care directly. By May, surely the whole staff would have been diagnosed. And these are the sailors - on the most important ship in France - people who have passed rigorous selection, including on medical grounds and far from retirement age. That is, the virus spreads easily among people of any age and any physical form.. And this is exactly what needs to be understood, since not in the percentage of mortality is its main danger. Maybe someone will recall at least one case where on a ship, whether itâs a military one or a huge cruise ship, they all got a flu or SARS at once? Yes, poison everything - there have been cases. Yes, 100-200-500 years ago, when swimming took several months without proper nutrition, most developed scurvy from a lack of vitamins. But about a whole flu-ship ... I havenât heard that. With a crown, this is easily implemented, practice has proven.But not only ships are suitable for evaluation. On cosmonautics day, an example was the nursing home in Vyazma - currently identified with the virus - 27% (guests plus staff - a total of 306 people). We will follow further.The conclusion, unfortunately, is disappointing - without quarantine (the methods of "containment", as we have implemented in Russia, are not effective), we will all get sick.Myths
Temperature
Well, this myth is based on knowledge of seasonal flu (just in March, many who reassured them on TV). In our country, it prevails in the winter and with the beginning of spring, when the sun warms, the temperature rises and the grass hardens, the buds bloom - the flu disease comes to naught.Alas, this error is very erroneous. In the south of Italy and in the same Orleans (Louisiana state) - the weather is not inferior to our warmest days - + 25 ... + 30 - and this does not prevent people from pneumonia, which we have been associated with colds since childhood. Here is the data for April 11 according to Orleans: the weather, and below is the data on the sick, dead, zero recovered:Comments are redundant.Humidity
An even bigger myth. Distribution occurs in all countries with any humidity and the spread rate depends only on the methods of combating coronavirus.Seasonal influenza / ARVI / other crap mortality
The fallacy of these conclusions follows from the fact that they compare the total number âaround the worldâ with specific data, all the more so when they were just starting to spread and did not give their horrific numbers. But for the correct comparison, you need to take a separate region and it is precisely according to the data of this region to make a comparison.Unfortunately, it is difficult to get to more local data, for example, by city, although this would be a good comparison. But we can take data for the same Italy. An average of 8 thousand people die of influenza there per year. Over the past month from coronavirus - more than 20 thousand. Please note - for the sake of influenza, they are not satisfied with quarantine and this data - 8tys - how much flu can overpower per year. With coronavirus, they are actively fighting quarantine, which is why it is not raging there in all areas and in many areas of the hospital they still manage. In the same place where the epidemic escalated into a pandemic, the capabilities of medical organizations in terms of the number of patients being treated at the same time were exceeded and the mortality rate went off scale, exceeding even the Spaniard, which at the moment is the most massive pandemic in terms of the number of people infected and the number of deaths.In order to understand the difference between COVID19 and the flu, SARS and any other âsimilarâ disease, you can see the cities, regions that took over this outbreak. In Italy, in November-December 2019, a surge in patients with pneumonia was recorded compared with the average statistical data. But only in November-December no one complained about the lack of ventilators, the lack of chambers, and places for accommodation. There were no patients to be placed in the corridors, hotels were not released to accommodate patients whose disease was not severe. Enough of the available equipment. But China, in the province of the outbreak of coronavirus âfor some reason,â scored two hospitals in a couple of weeks. Italy, of course, does not possess such a workaholism, and it also faced an epidemic for the first time in 100 years, one can understand.Unfortunately, humanity loves to forget everything. I forgot that whole villages and cities mowed before smallpox, plague, and cholera (although cholera is a persistent infection - its outbreaks are still regular, although local, but continue to appear in our century). The same Spanish woman mentioned above. To make it clear what figures we are talking about the Spanish woman: she was ill with 30% of the world's population, mortality data varies greatly due to the lack of proper statistics at that time - 50-100 million people. Think about it - one disease in 1.5 years claimed more than all the wars in the history of mankind in total. But humanity has forgotten this too easily and quickly. We love to step on the same rake.And now a small comparison of COVID19 and Spanish (it is surprising that I have never seen such a comparison before, I will be the first). Mortality from the Spaniard was - 3-20%. And this is thanks to the unsanitary conditions of that time. In COVID19 - the mortality rate is the same ... with the availability of expensive equipment, the widespread use of antiseptics. But COVID19 reaches such values ââonly when this equipment is trite enough. Nevertheless, the Spaniard - she was a more powerful virus - she âextinguishedâ everyone, regardless of age, and the âcrownâ beats weak immunity, and thanks to modern medicine, the principle âthe strongest survivesâ (in spirit) has long been out of date - they learned to prolong life like this that would have been buried a century ago. You can live with many diseases for a long time ... if you do not catch the coronavirus. One hundred years ago, the population with weak immunity was still smaller,therefore, a hundred years ago, damage would have been significantly less from him.But if you do not fight COVID19 now - the Spaniard will easily move to second place, giving way to the place you know what. And, by the way, - even 100 years ago they fought with the Spaniard .... Quarantine! Centuries go, but the methods are the same.And in Russia - not like everyone else - 1%!
Now in Russia, the wrongly calculated mortality rate (dividing the dead by the total number of sick people who have not even recovered) is 1%. It is precisely this figure that is often used, flaunting mortality at the level of influenza (but I dare say - the lethality in influenza is significantly less than 1%, but I will not focus on this, too many people think that ~ 1% is probably some kind of special rounding method, since official information says about ~ 0.1%). Here are just no deviations from the world here. When in March Vladimir Putin turned to the nation with a request and indicated that pensioners and patients - at risk - this part of the population just became the most law-abiding of all layers. That is why we have an average age with a fatal outcome - not 80 years old, as in Italy, but quite healthy, 25-50-year-old residents. In all countries, mortality from coronavirus at that age is below 1%. Here are the March 31 data for Italy and China:And this one percent is those who have any, as they always write, reducing the significance of the coronavirus - âthe patient had concomitant chronic diseasesâ. Drive pensioners to the streets - you will see how the mortality rate will go up sharply. Or ban retirement from housing for years to come?Effectiveness measures
The most suitable example is the source of distribution - on January 23, quarantine was introduced in Wuhan, on January 25 - in all other provinces. Less than a month later, on February 20, the number of infected infected reached 75 thousand. But 2 months have passed and since then their number has increased by 10%, and since the quarantine was lifted, but with the transition to the mandatory mask regime, by 1%.That is, quarantine is an effective measure. But it is very hard on the economy of the country and, if it is a country, a large importer-exporter, on the economies of other countries. Fortunately, such extreme measures are not always mandatory (although for some countries they are uncontested).Consider another example, with a different approach - South Korea. Moreover, they like to give her an example that the country did not impose full quarantine, as in China, but managed to cope with the epidemic. But you just donât take into account that these Asian countries have already faced the epidemic not in theory, but in practice. And it costs a lot. Koreans are very law-abiding, including because of Confucianism. They said to wear masks - all polls wear masks. Even fines are not needed. Everyone understands that this is not a request or even a requirement, but a concern for the life of citizens. Because Korea has already faced MERS.Therefore, when it became known about a new epidemic - on February 22, the country's leadership turned to the people that a new disease was spreading and it was necessary to fight it - there was no need to say twice - the whole country wore masks at once. Not like ours - they tear down playgrounds surrounded by ribbon and arrange mass kebabs, namely, they take measures to reduce the spread of infection. At that time, Korea was in second place among countries - 433 cases identified. More - only China and a place that is not a country, but also discussed in this article - Diamond Princess liner off the coast of Japan. Exactly 2 weeks later, the country was still in second place in terms of the number of infected people. But countries have already stepped on their heels, where epidemics took place only at school, and even then a couple of paragraphs by force,therefore, they started talking about some kind of fight against the virus much later - Italy and Iran. A month after addressing the people - on March 22, the country was already in 8th place in the anti-rating and since then everything has been decreasing and decreasing. Today, South Korea is in 23rd place.That is, quarantine is needed only where:- the epidemic is alreadyin full swing (if it was missed, they did not know that a new disease had appeared - this happened in China) - the epidemic is not in full swing, but the people are careless.In other cases, less radical options can be dispensed with.Iâll focus on: China and Korea over the past 4 weeks have managed to completely cope with the pandemic epidemic, now there is an increase by orders of magnitude lower than seasonal SARS and similar diseases - some dozens of people a day throughout the country. This figure is the key to assessing effectiveness, so once again we will remember - 4 weeks .Plus I want to give a link to a detailed article:â Linkwhere the distribution process and the diagnostic process are examined in detail and it is shown that the result of effective measures is visible only after 12 days, although the effect is actually there immediately, but because of the sufficiently long incubation period, its effectiveness is visible only after some time.Effectiveness of measures in Russia
So, the virus only hits those who are not so hot with immunity. This is precisely what lulled the vigilance of most Russians. After all, the first swallows that brought us infection - transferred it quite easily. But as it was correctly said by S. Sobyanin (they visited Courchevel, they brought just a suitcase of viruses from there) - often these were people of far from low incomes, young, healthy in body and spirit who could not afford state medicine. Not those who barely breathe go to the Alps. âPatientsâ, although itâs more correct to say âcarriers of infectionâ posted posts and videos about how easily they get sick, how they feed them, how fun / boring they were in Instagram / Ticktok / Tweet / Facebook / VKontakte / classmates. And the Internet is worse than word of mouth - in just a few days, the Russians decided that all this Chinese crap is the crap of us Russiansshe doesn't take. Especially since the media talked about this, couch analysts presented their "evidence".Countries, as the spread of infection in the country, introduced various measures to counter the spread - someone quarantine, someone masked mode, someone "po_uizm". Probably, having looked at the example of South Korea, our government thought that this would work for us as well. It just didnât take into account that the population there was already going through similar epidemics and more law-abiding - they were announced to them on February 22 - they insulated themselves as much as possible, and who couldnât according to the specifics of work â everyone began to wear masks, tried to communicate less personally and keep a distance. But our man, until everyone in the family dies from infection, will be sure that itâs not scary, that these are all Masonic / Chinese / American / alien conspiracies and that there is no virus. Masks are for wimps, and vodka is the best way to fight.So, on March 21, in Russia, they âintroducedâ (he put in quotation marks, because this approach is for chickens to laugh) a self-isolation mode for those who can by the specifics of their work. Schoolchildren were sent to home schooling online. Since April, some organizations have suspended their work and sent to self-isolation. The Russians reacted to this in their own way - with joint kebabs, songs and dances. So 4 weeks have passed since the gradual introduction of the regime of âcontaining the spread of coronavirusâ, almost a month. I remind you that China and Korea managed to cope with the epidemic in 4 weeks, reducing it to dozens of people a day. Let's see how the effectiveness of Russian measures has shown itself during this time. And let's do it with two different ratings.First, let's compare the effectiveness of measures with other countries - the position of our country in the anti-rating of countries by the number of infected. After all, the number of infected people is growing in all countries. There is an opportunity to compare the effectiveness of measures compared with the effectiveness of the struggle of others. And it is with this analysis that we will begin. On March 21, Russia was 45th in the number of cases (I excluded the ship Diamond Princess from the participants, since it is not a country). In principle - in the backyard. They broadcast from TV channels that by the spring everything will pass, the infection will not take us, it will become warmer and it will all end (that this is all a blatant lie - now itâs already clear). But since then we have been leaping upwards. That's just this anti-rating and it would be better to stay on the edge in it.So, data on the number of confirmed infected people and our place in the ranking of countries by this number. Starting March 1st.In the early days there were jumping places - up and down. This is not due to some efficiency, quarantines and the like, but to the corny effect of a low base, so until the number of detected carriers exceeds at least a hundred or two, this is more trampling than analysis. And just on March 17 we overcame this first hundred and we are no longer letting anyone overtake us in this. As we see, we are moving up. From some 45th place in half a month we were in the TOP20, in less than a month - in the TOP15. Well, getting into the TOP10 is a matter of the coming weekend. Itâs just not the TOP that you need to lead.Now letâs analyze whether our growth dependence is linear, geometric or long ago, and we defeated the virus in the bud (although it is clear from the table above that it does not smell like victory in the bud).TOP20. The gain for the day is April 17th. Alas, Russia is in first place in growth. For April 18, Brazil has 8%, we again have 14.9%. We can see the graph of the number of TOP20 countries infected per day. Only had to be divided into 2 parts (TOP10 + Russia-USA and TOP20 places from 11 to 20), otherwise it is replete with quantity. So:
Bad when bad with math
And itâs very bad when such losers begin to occupy important posts. Because the people in their mass do not know how to filter and perceives everything at face value.Today, when I was already finishing the article, we were discouraged:There is such a motivating picture:I will explain - making every day 1% more than yesterday - in a year there will be a 37-fold increase. You will do 1% less - in a year there will be 1/30 of the current one.The words "daily growth does not exceed 20%" means "weekly growth does not exceed 3.5 times." And then the question is - is Rospotrebnadzor really bad with math, or is a three-time weekly increase not considered a tremendous geometric growth? In fact, now every week gets sick 2.5 times more than the previous one.That is, if a day the growth of patients is not more than 20%, then the norms, we live! It becomes terrible from such "calming" phrases. Over the past 10 days, all of the TOP20 averaged below 10% daily, we have for a long time daily from 14% to 18% and this is considered normal ?!Conclusion: the month was prosran. There is no other name for this. Instead of going to work in mandatory mask mode by May and helping small businesses that are on the verge of bankruptcy this month due to the presence of expenses at zero turnover and income, the same ineffective self-isolation regime looms ahead until a vaccine appears through a few months, or finally a more stringent option, but due to the reluctance of the leadership to introduce the emergency regime, it will take us much longer, until the beginning of the summer, the gap is not visible. And this means the collapse of so many companies that cascade captures others and dumps the economy in tartarar. Support at the minimum wage level is no longer compensated.A word in defense of the actions of the country's leadership
Unfortunately, our mentality is this - until the trouble has come to the house - that means there is no trouble, all this is fiction. That is why I suppose and did not begin to introduce quarantine with us for 3 weeks in March. Too few patients and the people will say - well, what the hell because of the hundreds of some rich, sick with some garbage - to stop the work of the whole country, slipping into a crisis?Thatâs why they introduce it gradually - so that growth can be seen, but also to prevent "every second person gets sick," since this will mean mortality of hundreds of thousands a day and people will already say - what the hell did the quarantine not do when they saw other countries as an example a pandemic is coming?Thereâs a double edged sword ... youâll do it early - they will blame it. Late too. Looking for a middle ground.But in fact, we get instead of economic recovery from April - the destruction of small and medium-sized businesses in entire industries. Quarantine for 1 month or 2 months of pseudo-isolation-quarantine - the difference in damage to enterprises is not 2 times, but 5-10 times. And 3 months - already once every 25-100 and is guaranteed to mean bankruptcy.Whoever works for Papa Carlo and is not aware of the structure of the business may not understand how such a colossal difference turns out. Below is a note. Not mine, but since it was written very truthfully, I decided to use it (I placed the link to the author under the text). . . , . , . . 100. 95 , 50 . 25 , , , . 20 , , .. "" 5, , .. , . .
, , . , 75 (50 25 ), 5 . , , , , . , . , - . , .
- . , ,
. , . , 5% - . , , .
SapiensbruSo it turns out that one month of lack of turnover while maintaining costs will already lead to the inability to pay salaries, rents, and you can forget about any profit for the next year or two. And a deferred tax payment will not save much. But simple in 2 months - already guaranteed to lead to bankruptcy, since it will be easier to declare yourself bankrupt and start from scratch than to fall into bondage for life without a gap. And at the same time, a small part of enterprises in which the business model is slightly more profitable and as a percentage of expenses is less - in 2 months it will nevertheless lead to the brink of bankruptcy. Well, after 3 months - already too miserable percentage of small and medium-sized companies that are not at the helm of the state, and which will be able to resume work.Yes, we have a lot of adequate people who understand the complexity and danger of the current situation, are really isolated, sitting at home and do not stick out without urgent need. But in this case, "a spoonful of tar spoils a barrel of honey" - best describes what is happening in the country. Here, or all comply, or no way. We do not realize the half option. We do not have South Korea, so current measures are not a struggle, but simply a reduction in the coefficient of geometric progression. But in any case, such an approach will bring health care down â that is, growth, and the hospital beds for those who have a bad course (even if all the others are asymptomatic or moderate) will be missed. There will be a shortage of med.personnel - starting from the current quantity, and for such reasons:And I understand them - the example of China is indicative - there doctors had to work around the clock in 3 shifts due to lack of hands, spend the night and live indefinitely in hospitals. And this immunity undermines even in healthy people. That is why there:But the nurses, nurses and other staff were dying. And for a salary of 15-20-25tys, we may not find anyone who wants to be a hero. Realizing this, on April 8, the country's leadership voiced surcharges to doctors in the amount of 25-50-80 thousand rubles per month. The stimulation is good, I agree. But when mass infection and mortality begin, nerves can pass.A moment of humor
(ratio of media people / media in February-March-April)Let us recall the story when Napoleon Bonaparte returned to the throne, the so-called â100 days of ruleâ. This story is noteworthy to many - at least the fact that he left the exile on Elba Island and returned to Paris, where he again became emperor, without a single shot, without a single battle. But now I want to tell one story about those events. One of the so-called pro-government newspapers today entitled the note about Napoleon leaving the link:âThe Corsican monster has landed in the bay of Juanâ.But as we get closer to the capital, the news in this newspaper openly changed color:- âThe ogre goes to Grassâ- âThe usurper entered Grenobleâ- âBonaparte occupied Lyonâ- "Napoleon is approaching Fontainebleau"- "His Imperial Majesty is expected today in his faithful Paris."The same thing happened with us. When the infection was far away, it was heard from the screens and newspapers that there was no danger, that it was all fiction, that getting infected with it was tantamount to meeting an alien.It was the day when only 2 people were infected in Russia, but in China it jumped from 643 people on January 23 to 40 thousand on February 10. It was that day when I told the oldest child (10th grade) - get ready to sit at home in April-May .It became clear that for the first time China will not be able to keep it within its borders and it will break out into the WORLD, and not Asian countries faced the epidemic more than 100 years ago, so they simply forgot how to fight .When the first swallows appeared with us - also at first it flew everywhere - everything is under control, relax.âIt will get warmer and it will endâ - have already been considered in the âmythsâ section.But gradually the realization came that the fucker was not under control and that the arrows had already flown - yes, I was bogged down, but I'm not the only such fool:Laughter and more.Effects
The coronavirus will leave, but we will stay. Therefore, it is time to touch on the consequences. And the consequences are sad - the WORLD is slipping into such an economic crisis that it has never encountered before. Even during the war. During the 1st, 2nd World Wars, European and Asian countries participated. Here America was a winner - it was "bitten" only once, about it even Hollywood made films - the famous "Pearl Harbor". But, for example, Australia, also located on the outskirts of the main theater - the Japanese flew to bomb 97 times in 1942/1943. Hollywood films about this are not making something ... America, of course, participated - with soldiers (to capture scientists later), increased production of tanks, planes and equipped the allies with it without compensation .To make it clear how much the US participated in WWII, a brief comparison.Population in 1941: USA - 133mln, USSR - 196mln.US losses: the largest - 20 thousand at the landing in Normandy. Total for the whole war - 418 thousand killed and 671 thousand wounded.For comparison, one of the major, but far from the only battle - the Battle of Stalingrad. Losses of the USSR: 478 thousand killed and 650 thousand wounded.And yes - not in the United States there were fights, not in their cities were razed to the ground . And the cost of building a city ...Comments are unnecessary.The Great Depression - was in the United States in the 1930s, but touched Canada, Britain, Germany and France. Due to the fact that countries have not yet been so tightly intertwined with stock wounds, they have suffered indirectly and not so much, and many learned about it only from the news, since most countries did not touch it at all.But by the 21st century, the situation had changed, and when in 2008 the situation repeated itself, it already fell back on in all countries. Although it began (who would have thought!) Again in the United States.There were also the dotcom crisis (guess where) at the beginning of this century, the oil crisis in 1973 (and here America was lit up). But all these crises affected some countries and were not global.Now, due to forced quarantines, pressure on medicine, declining production, ruining companies, collapsing oil prices, the crisis will affect all countries in general. And this is really the first time in history. But how countries will come out of it and how much time it will stretch out of the scope of this article. But the fact that it is necessary to tighten the belts, since it is not for a month, two, three, but for sooooo long - that's for sure.For countries sitting on an oil needle, there will be a double blow - in addition to the avalanche of bankrupt enterprises that could not survive a long downtime, and, naturally, stop paying taxes to the budget, the situation on the oil market will be added. The oil storages of many countries even before the coronavirus were filled up to the neck, which makes it possible not to resort to the purchase of oil or to significantly reduce the volume of purchases at the current level of consumption. And so in many countries. The decline in oil consumption by China (and it is the largest importer) in the first quarter of this year (when all other countries watched the show âquarantine in Chinaâ) - with production not decreasing (we agreed to reduce it only in April) - it led to a chock and oil storage and tankers and all that is possible in the strategic reserves of the countries and in the oil companies themselves.But the production of oil production is not so simple to stop - itâs not a water tap in the apartment - I want it turned on, I wanted it - I turned it off. Therefore, this leads to a sharp decrease in prices for those for whom production cannot be stopped, and there is nowhere to store it. Even below cost. Evenwith negative . You canât pour it out.Now remember the school economy. The supply and demand curve and the equilibrium price. Naturally, the events described above brought down the price of oil below the baseboard. If we take into account inflation of the dollar itself, the situation is even worse: the price level is not even the beginning of the century, but even lower. We sell already with a negative profit. The duty will decrease by 87% from May. 7.7 times. Plus, under the OPEC + agreement, we (like the other countries of the agreement) are reducing the production of oil itself and quite significantly. Putting it all together: budget revenues are reduced tens of times.Oil importing countries only benefit from such prices and will not allow prices to rise easily. Using the current situation with the fact that the reserve oil storage facilities are full - countries will better spend oil from storage facilities, but reduce purchases, knocking down the equilibrium price. And they can play this for a long time - the decline in production is also in their favor. But it is not at hand for us, the exporting countries, of which Russia is.Well, now we are putting it together: tax deferral (âbusiness supportâ), tax cuts due to an avalanche of bankruptcies, lower oil dollars ... âThere is no money but you hold onâ, youâll have to turn on the machine to pay salaries to state enterprises . And this is the acceleration of inflation, and significant. Therefore, management promises about the same mortgage at 6.5% - utopia. Keep in mind if you counted on this.But once again - it was beyond the scope of this topic, so I am finishing the conversation about it.Are there any winners?
Food lovers conspiracy theories ;-)They are few, but there are. Since the old generation suffers most often, pension funds benefit. And even our PFR, moreover, literally not so long ago raised the retirement age, and even if we all have been ill with it, even with a âlethality like the fluâ it gives us up to 1.5 million deaths (in fact, because that hospitals cannot cope with such a volume - the number will be 10 times more), most of which will come to pensioners. Now in Russia there are about 47 million of them, of which 37 million are old. So we consider: in a negative situation, when the health care system simply keeps up with the volumes, if 90% is accounted for by the elderly, this will reduce their number by 13 million, which is more than 27%. And their growth, due to an increase in the retirement age, slowed down. Like it or not, the PFR is the winner.You can come up with another conspiracy theory on this topic about the global conspiracy of pension funds and their participation in the development of this virus.Planetary wolf?
The wolf is considered a nurse in the forest. He kills sick or old, weakened individuals who can no longer escape from him. This scary and dangerous predator plays an important and useful role in the ecosystem.COVID19 kills people with weak immunity. Most often these are old people, since during their long life they manage to earn a bunch of sores, but younger victims also become victims, whose immunity is undermined for various reasons - illness, surgery, general overwork.I am not going to call COVID19 useful for the Earth, but the parallels are very clear. I suggest that everyone think about it.TOTAL Hand calculator.
Add all the numbers together.Without restraint and struggle, we are ill with everything. The vast majority, unlike the same flu and SARS, will not notice at all that it was sick and ill.Mortality is already how long it will be stretched in time so that hospitals can process it. Overpower - mortality of 4% (here it depends more on age - where what percentage of the population are pensioners or with various "concomitant" diseases). Do not master - will reach 20% and above.Well, then we consider - the population of the Earth - 7.7bn. Even if we accept the hypothetical âflu-like mortalityâ, we take into account 1%. One percent of the world's population is already 77 million people. Already at the level with the long-forgotten Spaniard (all due to the fact that at that time the population of the Earth was ~ 1.8 billion people, and by now it has increased by more than 4 times, so 1% then 1% now is the same It varies a lot). That's just with so many patients in a short period (and the virus spreads easily and quickly) hospitals in no country can cope, so the percentage will no longer be âlike the fluâ. Therefore, it is very easy to lead the TOP of diseases from which most people have died. It is enough to remove quarantine, masks and return to the usual way of life.That is the question - is the life of the sick and old people worth the effort and the economic crisis?After all, almost everyone has parents, grandparents ... Ready to donate? FIU yes, and you?Conclusion
Alas, there is only one conclusion - we must burn ourselves. Burn yourself hard. So that for some period of time, while the memory of these events will be with us, and not among the unborn generations - when a similar or more dangerous epidemic occurs - we will not be as sluggish as it is happening now.Daniel.Telegram: @Zverenush