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Hard quarantine is very very bad

Hard Quarantine Prospects


Cruise ship “Diamond Princess”:
3,711 people on board, including 2,666 passengers and 1,045 crew members;
the average age of passengers is 69 years, the average age of crew members is 36.

Chronology of events:
February 1: a coronovirus was detected in a passenger who left the ship on January 25;
February 3: the ship quarantined in Yokohama;
February 5: quarantine was introduced on the liner, passengers are instructed not to leave the cabins.
By February 26, 4061 tests were carried out and 705 cases were detected.

Overall result:
infected: 712 (19%), of which 145 (13%) crew members, 567 (21%) passengers;
died: 13 people (1.8% of the total number of infected).

The coefficient R0 (virus transmission efficiency) on the liner in hard quarantine mode was 14.8, against the coefficient R0 in the range of 2-4, which was observed elsewhere.

From these data, a very important conclusion can be drawn:
"The introduction of strict quarantine can greatly accelerate the spread of the disease."

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Yes, we can say that hard quarantine was poorly organized on the ship, but it is much more difficult to organize hard quarantine in a multi-million city with a developed economy than on a moored liner.

If events will develop in a similar way for St. Petersburg, then we can expect in the coming month (since there were already infected in all areas of the city):

650-1050 thousand infected;
100-150 thousand in need of hospitalization;
11-19 thousand dead.

For comparison, natural mortality in St. Petersburg is approximately 5 thousand per month.

For Moscow - twice as much, and, judging by the statistics of New York (10 thousand deaths in 15 days), this is quite a reasonable estimate.

Effects


  1. The redistribution of capital and power due to the death of their holders (the expected figure is 1.8% among those infected).
  2. Slowing down the development of the high-tech sector of the economy and the loss of some of the technology due to the death of older workers in science and technology.
  3. Temporary disruption of production chains due to labor retirement due to illness (expected rate -20% of workers; retirement time is one month, in a sector with heavy physical labor retirement can be up to one year).

Methods for slowing the spread of the disease


All ongoing activities should be aimed at reducing the number and duration of contacts between people.

Main contacts (ratings are very conditional, but look like a reasonable rating from below)


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Police officers from the point of view of the spread of diseases can be many times more dangerous than cashiers, who, in turn, are many times more dangerous than couriers.


Of course, if people stay at home, they will not intersect with the police and cashiers, but the problem is that a person is a social being, he cannot physically be out of society for a long time, well, imagine what it is like to be constantly in a two-room or even in a studio apartment with young children. Therefore, people will leave the house.

And when they go out, they will go wherever they can — to the shops, even if they don’t need to buy anything, they just go, because there’s no way at home.

Important conclusion:

“When introducing measures to reduce the number of contacts, you need to compare the threat of infection not with the probability of getting infected at home, in isolation, but with the probability of getting infected when you go to the store.”

The situation with the unemployed is even worse - they will constantly look for part-time jobs and, consequently, will greatly increase the number and variety of contacts.

Therefore, you need, firstly, to try so that people can still go to work, and secondly, so that if they leave the house, then go to the place where there will be as few contacts as possible, which means you should try to distribute them as much as possible in space.

  1. Parks should be open to visitors, let people walk there, play sports, fry kebabs with their families, etc. The risk of infection will be significantly lower than in a store.
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The main emphasis should be placed not on intimidation of people, but on the formation of their understanding and desire to avoid illness. If a person is not intimidated by terrible fines, if he does not lose his mind from constant imprisonment in a noisy little apartment, then he will behave rationally, he will try to avoid the risk of infection, will wear gloves, will avoid a large crowd of people, will use his personal transport or more to walk.

Man is a rational being, you need to help him do the right thing, for this you need to give him more information, to show concern.

You can make a map of diseases; let medical institutions provide information about the house where the patient lives. Then people will be able to see the spread of the disease on the map and will try to avoid neighborhoods where there are especially many sick people.

More social distance and disinfection methods need to be promoted.

Instead of SMS about criminal prosecution for violation of quarantine, it is better to send SMS about maintaining social distance and washing your hands so as not to get sick. Agree, because there is a difference in the perception of information between the constant threat of punishment and constant health care?

At least a couple of times a day, ask through the city warning system to observe the social distance, not as a threat, but as a concern for every citizen of the country.

Police officers should not fine healthy people; if they see crowds, then let them ask a social distance a couple of times in a megaphone, but without coercion, if people don’t want to, they don’t have to force them, if there are patients among them, then everyone has become infected, and if not, then there’s danger no infection.

It would also be nice to organize a grocery supply for the poor, senior citizens and students, because a full refrigerator contributes to a long and relaxing stay on the couch.

If the state takes care of its citizens, then the citizens will reciprocate, and they themselves will try to reduce the risk of their infection.

If the state’s policy is dominated by the method of coercion and fines, then very soon people distraught from all these restrictions will see in the approaching police officer not ministries, but minus 15,000 rubles, an empty refrigerator, hungry children and the threat of prison, the consequences of this may be the most terrible.

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