🏇🏻 🤶🏾 👊🏻 Launch of spacecraft and ... weather in the regions 🎪 🕖 😸

30 years ago, an article with such a title was published in the journal "Inventor and Rationalizer" No. 5 for 1990 in the "Hypotheses" section. Presumably, the author of the article is Sergey Igorevich Rybnikov, professor at the Moscow Aviation Institute, the author of more than 100 scientific papers, including on atmospheric processes. Surprisingly, Professor Rybnikov was several decades ahead of his time, and his theory “drowned” under a layer of various discussions about climate change. Today, for the long-term weather forecasts use the coolest computing power, but these costs do not make much sense if the forecast uses an incomplete or inaccurate mathematical model.

It is problematic to find the original article, I am enclosing a scan both in PDF format:
Launching spacecraft and weather in the regions
as well as page by page: The article by Professor Rybnikov made a strong impression on me in due time. Since its inception, I have been comparing launches of spacecraft (KLA) with the weather in northwestern Russia, more precisely, in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region. I’ll say with confidence that the professor was right about our region. His theory perfectly explains the climate anomalies and works reliably against the most respected long-term forecasts.

In short, the article says that the launch of any powerful spacecraft affects the weather around the globe at the regional level. For example, a launch from the launch site at Cape Canaveral in the United States leads to a significant change in weather in northwestern Russia. At first, one and a half to two weeks of wind amplification are repeatedly replaced by calm, but the weather tries to stay within the climatic norm, then a month and a half there is a shift towards the marine climate, which means mild winters, “rotten” summers, prolonged spring, excess of rainfall in any season. The degree of weather inconsistency with the average values directly depends on the power of the spacecraft. Launches from the Baikonur Cosmodrome have less impact on the weather due to their remoteness from the oceans,but this effect takes place and leads to the establishment of a more continental climate in the north-west of Russia, i.e. after the start there should be a little snowy cold winter, dry hot summer, large differences in daily temperatures.

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Remember how many discussions there were about the causes of the abnormally warm winter of 2019-2020 before the pandemic began. Dear experts gathered at the talk show and sorted out in a circle: ecology, global warming, sea currents, solar activity, its cyclical nature, the ozone layer, and climate weapons. Not finding the answer to the question, they began to guess on the maps what the upcoming spring and summer would be like. Only a rare specialist sometimes made a fair remark that the prediction of climate change should not be confused with a long-term weather forecast, and that all of the listed reasons have a very indirect relation to weather forecasts.

For me personally, the theory of Professor Rybnikov has long ceased to be a hypothesis. Back to the abnormally warm winter. According to this theory, it was such because of a series of launches with an interval of 2-3 weeks:
11/11/2019 (Falcon 9), 12/05/2019 (Falcon 9), 12/17/2019 (Falcon 9), 01/07/2020 (Falcon 9), 01/16/2020 (Arian-5), 01/29/2020 (Falcon 9), 02/17/20 .2020 (Falcon 9), 02/18/2020 (Arian-5).
Recall the most recent events. Launch of Falcon on March 7th of this year. March 9-10, Sakhalin and Kamchatka were snowed, a couple of days later - hurricanes in Kaliningrad and Moscow, in the north-west - all according to theory.

Some more observations:

the first heat wave in Europe with a peak on 06/26/2019, a month after the launch of 05/24/2019 (Falcon 9);
the second wave of UNREAL abnormal heat in Europe with a peak on 07/25/2019 after a series of launches: 06/12/2019 (Falcon 9), 06/20/2019 (Arian-5), 06/25/2019 (Falcon Heavy).

All launches are made from the west coast of America. Then the following happened: a huge anticyclone over Europe drove hot air from the Sahara over Spain, France, etc., passing over Scandinavia and the northern seas, saturated with moisture, cooled, provoked the generation of several small cyclones and brought down winds, heavy rainfall and cold weather on northwest. I don’t remember such July in the Leningrad Region as in 2019, when it happened + 4C at night, and + 8C in the daytime. What to say? The hottest month of the year (irony). In our region, in 2019 there was practically no summer thanks to this series of launches.

If you take a closer look at the history of spacecraft launches over the years, you will notice that almost always the launches of Arian-5 + Falcon with an interval of several days caused anomalous heat in Europe.

Attempts to "reach out"

I tried to attract the attention of professional meteorologists and climatologists to the article by Professor Rybnikov. The feedback was either absent or the following:

If you follow such reasoning, then it is worth recognizing that in order to initiate a snow avalanche, it is necessary to expend energy comparable to the energy released during an avalanche. But this is not so. A trigger for an avalanche can be a very minor event. The main condition for the avalanche to descend is the presence of a critical mass, and the trigger mechanism only determines the moment of its descent. Professor Rybnikov in his article just talks about the launches of spacecraft, as triggers, moreover, not studied at all. What is common between an avalanche and a (anti) cyclone? The accumulation of energy stretched in time and the quick release of this energy “on a click”.

The take-off of the spacecraft is necessarily accompanied by a powerful ejection of the atmospheric layers towards the earth's surface (fanless fans work where a considerable flow towards the user is initiated through tiny openings with air under pressure). Due to this effect, the launch of the spacecraft creates a dump in the upper atmosphere, a wave from which propagates throughout the oceans, probably around the globe and interfering.

Due to these influences, where one cyclone should have formed, several cyclones are formed. This situation suggests that the conditions for the emergence of a large cyclone did not have time to form, something ahead of them. Let's draw an analogy with an avalanche again. For example, we observe that an avalanche is growing, and its potential gathering begins to threaten a settlement in the foothills. What are we doing? Shots from a cannon artificially cause several non-hazardous gatherings. It is logical to assume that it is useless to shoot again to cause a second avalanche, because the release of stored energy has already occurred.

It is known that the smaller the size of the cyclone, the higher the gradient of wind speed. This causes hurricanes, anomalous local precipitation in those regions where instead of one large cyclone several smaller cyclones formed, up to the size of a tornado.

Is Australia the most affected?

The article says that the greatest influence on the weather is exerted by spacecraft launches from cosmodromes located next to the oceans. This can be explained by the fact that land, and especially mountainous terrain, is a certain obstacle for the full propagation of the disturbance wave caused by the launch of the spacecraft. Let's look at the map, where the red marks indicate the cosmodromes of India, China and Japan.

The space activity of these countries has increased significantly in recent years (40 successful launches in 2019). Is this the growing drought year after year in Australia, which alone killed about a billion animals in 2019 due to lack of water and fires? The picture, to say the least, is sad. The explanation can be simple: frequent launches of spacecraft from these spaceports do not give a chance for the formation of full-fledged large-scale cyclones that can carry moisture to the central regions of the continent, surrounded on all sides by oceans .

Note: the map does not show the spaceport in New Zealand, from which 6 launches were made in 2019. Only light-class missiles are launched from there, having little effect on the weather in the regions, according to the professor’s article. Perhaps this is so, but two points make you think: the small distance from Australia to the cosmodrome (2000 km), the beginning of the use of the cosmodrome coincides with the beginning of the drought (2017).

Solution to the problem

Quote from an article by Professor Rybnikov: “The most important goal of resolving these issues is to increase the environmental safety of the population in the zones of influence and the safety of the crops grown in them. To achieve this goal, it will be necessary to limit the frequency of launches, launch masses of missiles "

Personally, I am skeptical about this; technical progress cannot be stopped, and the probability of agreeing on any restrictions at the interstate level, unfortunately, is small.

The problem can be solved within the framework of a separate cosmodrome. As a rule, a spaceport is a complex of several launch sites. Imagine that two spacecraft are launched from one cosmodrome with an interval equal to half the period of the perturbation wave. The less powerful is launched first, then the more powerful. The interference of perturbation waves from different launches should reduce the overall negative effect. In my opinion, in order to assess the impact of the launch of a spacecraft on the weather, one should take into account not only its launch mass, but also the duration of the payload launch into space. The longer it takes off, the stronger the effect.

I wish you all good health, predictable weather and reliable forecasts!

Launch of spacecraft and ... weather in the regions

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Attempts to "reach out"

Is Australia the most affected?

Solution to the problem

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