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Economic systems are highly resilient, extremely adaptive, and extremely complex. Their network nature allows both to maintain a certain long-term stability, and to rebuild in the short term under new challenges. Sometimes true with crisis consequences for a number of economic entities. The interdependent actions of many participants under the influence of external and internal factors form the current situation and trends for the future. This was once again demonstrated in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. But there are several important things that escalated during this period and which launched fast and powerful mechanisms for restructuring economic systems, not only locally, but in many ways - globally.

Awareness of the cardinality of those changes that occurred in an extremely short time makes an increasing number of experts try to understand the impending consequences for different industries, for different social groups and, in general, for economies and public administration systems of different countries. For example, the opinion of the leading economist of the World Economic Forum Roberto Crotty . He argues that amid a massive transition to digital technology due to global quarantine, there will be a push for digitalization that will spill over into the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Let us try to look at this situation in a little more detail, taking into account those things that are already reflected in the activities of various economic entities.

A few notes and a few hypotheses.

Problem

Assessing the possible consequences is always a challenge. Especially in such conditions of rapid significant changes, if not catastrophic. But it has a certain meaning, because it allows you to think about the future and somehow prepare for the situation when crisis factors begin to recede, and the need for a quick return to normal activity remains. Although this, of course, will not be a return to what we called “normal activity” several months ago.

On the one hand, we are dealing with long-term trends. And they are quite difficult to reverse in the short term, given the inertia. But, on the other hand, it is precisely the scale and complexity of the situation that, in an extremely short time, lays down fundamentally new entities, driving factors, knowledge, competencies, models of behavior and understanding. Under these conditions, it is important not only to correctly analyze the existing long development trajectories and medium-term trends, but also to manage to notice the strong changes that still take place in an extremely small period. Or maybe even look at the future, how it will unfold in such a short time that it has found its place and entrenched in the economy, in business management, in markets, in the public sector, in the social sphere. Certain difficulty of coursethe task is to analyze the overall development of trends and assess how strong the synergistic effect will become.

For all reasoning, we will not forget that competitive advantage is often not found in universal, universally recognized, standard, thoroughly studied and tested theories and optimized practices. Successful are new solutions that can be seen where no one has recognized or implemented them before. For hypotheses regarding the development of a particular situation (economic, sectoral, technological, consumer), this also takes place. Forecasts, especially those that are born during a period of increased turbulence, have a rather low probability of implementation. But at the same time, it is they that can contain very useful ideas for development and indicate the prerequisites that are sometimes worth paying attention to when the restructuring of the global economy is underway.

Low base effect

Until some time, or rather, in the distant and calm 2019, one could hear a well-founded opinion that a number of countries have a fairly “ low economic and technological base". This made it possible in the future to rely on the fact that due to the gradual warming up of the situation on the domestic market and due to an active export policy, it is possible to bypass global leaders in the future. But it seems to be becoming clear that the strongest blow to economic growth, which caused a sharp decline in industrial and business activity, actually led to the leveling of this very low base effect. She is now low at all. In any case, it has declined sufficiently in most economies and individual businesses in order to confidently begin further growth with it, showing a good pace of development. Of course, those who have accumulated a certain reserve at the beginning of the crisis benefit. However, it is now extremely important to maximize the effective use of such a reserve for the period until the end of adverse factors. And leave a littleso that there was something to launch a new stage of development in the future.

In addition to equalizing the economic base, it seems that the critical situation accelerated the structural changes in the labor market, which are already forthcoming in the conditions of the new industrial revolution . They inevitably followed forced measures to terminate the work of a number of industries, to drastically reduce transport connections and logistics flows, to increase attention to certain vital market segments, to support vulnerable categories of business and citizens, etc. Inevitably, during the period of emergency measures of such a high level, structural changes in consumption were launched . Both at the level of individual households and at the level of states as a whole - which was reflected in actual budgets and, as a result, in financial markets. And we can conclude that andthe structure of economic resources (along the entire chain from receipt to use) also began to change significantly. Inertial attempts to return it to the “obsolete normal” for a while can only compensate for the shock state.

In all this critical complexity, it seems interesting to note that the restoration of business activity and the creation of new jobs will now be more focused on platform solutions and digital technologies. The business has not only objective evidence of the potential of digital transformation, but in some cases it is simply compelled, at least in reserve, to have a certain stack of information and communication technologies of a new level based on the infrastructure of digital platforms. It is reasonable to assume even greater robotization, even greater flexibility and responsiveness in decision making and in the implementation of decisions made. The need to redistribute investment flows to high-tech industries is clearly visible, which will inevitably lead to a reassessment of the costs of routine operations and insignificant transactions.Thus, the prerequisites are created for a systematic and methodological approach to reengineering traditional and innovative business models for the entire set of processes, events, projects, goals, competencies and resources., , .

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The most important industry, which once again confirmed its critical importance. Until recently, it systematically approached the ecosystem of digital transformation. Many digital projects, both in hardware and especially in software components in the health care industry, found their consumers. Now you can predict even greater growth in investment in everything related to this industry and even greater activity of various players: from new startups to large multinational corporations. But what can be expected new is building at the level of the healthcare industry as a whole and for its individual narrow segments of digital ecosystems regulated by the state.

Education

The distance learning format worked as an indicator of upcoming dramatic changes. And perhaps here the priority will be not only the digital transformation of the education industry itself, but namely the maximum reduction of the gap between science and education, between education and practice. Which, in fact, makes us significantly review the approach and principles of scientific and educational activities. We will have to find new tools for accelerating research and development, new tools for transferring knowledge into practice by building competencies, moving to a different level of the system of division of labor, developing and introducing new management technologies.

Social communications

The crisis situation has shown how important communication is, both of people among themselves, and the correct interaction between state structures, commercial and non-profit organizations. Sometimes a lot for many participants can depend on this, and sometimes for some participants everything can depend on it. The information flows of social interaction are now certain problems for state regulation. But it’s far more important to learn how to effectively communicate with target audiences in the digital space. And such factors as trust, subjectivity, relevance, accessibility, authority, emotionality, adequacy to ignore in the future will be simply dangerous. Actually, it became clear about this after several bright events of unsuccessful communication of officials with citizens last year.But the situation escalates and emphasizes the serious significance of this area.

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A difficult and long task, which is directly related to information tools, and management technologies, and organizational culture, and to strengthen the specialization factor, and to develop new competencies. But it will be necessary to go through it quickly and dynamically, if compared in terms of time to how much it occupied in the previous stages of economic development. The main goal is the ability not only to reformat part of the business one-time according to new market needs, but the ability to do it constantly, efficiently, quickly and often in relation to the whole business or even several related businesses. Which directly indicates ecosystem dependence, which will only further increase, but also stabilize thanks to digital platforms.

Automation automation

Accelerating the creation and development of digital spaces at the state level or the creation and development of digital ecosystems at the industry level, and digital platforms at the level of individual businesses is extremely difficult if you do not offer fundamentally new solutions in the field of software development. This requires a sharp reduction in the cost of developing code and data models, for collecting data and functionality, for debugging and testing, for delivering solutions to end users, for collecting feedback and testing it. All the prerequisites for this have developed, and the shortage of IT specialists only emphasizes the relevance of the task. Further active digital development directly determines the demand for solutions of this class.To some extent, it is a new qualitative stage in the comprehensive development of such areas as metaprogramming and robotic process automation (RPA).

But here it may turn out to be fundamental specialization in the target narrow segment of the industry. Which, perhaps, at some stage will become a barrier to the ecosystem integration of many platform solutions. But today this is an overcomeable limitation, in comparison with the complexity and duration of the development of a single platform solution within a separate industry.

Genuine personalization

The deficit of human capital in the context of significant structural changes should slightly shift the focus from the requirements for the applicant to the requirements for the inclusion and involvement of a professional in team work. In other words, it is possible to predict a radical transition from a situation where a business selected specialists for existing projects and tasks for a dedicated budget, to a situation where a specialist chooses projects and tasks for himself with an acceptable value and compensation package for him. And this is not just about some narrow segment of the labor market, but about the transition to this new reality of most of the labor market. This is a long-term and gradual trend, given the high inertia of this kind of relationship.

The other side of genuine personalization for business is consumers. They are more and more expecting a truly individual approach. They expect the fastest in development and convenient hardware and software solutions. They care little about the difficulties of business in the development and promotion of digital products and services, they are not much interested in the architectural complexity and iterativeness of releases. But on the other hand, safety, efficiency, reliability, etc. become critical requirements from their side.

In such circumstances, relying on the belief that digital transformation will not happen until people change, may be somewhat incorrect. Perhaps the digital transformation is just about the fact that consumers will not be forced to the detriment of their interests, needs and psychophysiological characteristics, to adapt to the offered goods or services, to use inconvenient devices and programs. And perhaps the digital transformation is just about the fact that professionals will not try to work on uninteresting projects and in inefficient teams. The stage of digital transformation may just differ in that it gives a chance to build a different economic system, without forcing people to turn into what they do not want and should not be. Shouldn't everything start now (from a low base) to change focusing on people and become truly personal.You just need to be able to collect and offer truly personalized solutions to customers, to be able to collect and manage truly effective teams in which each highly qualified specialist can realize his unique potential. Instead of forcing people to change and expect the results of these changes. It seems that this is the main meaning of marketing, which Philip Kotler designated as "a type of human activity aimed at satisfying needs and requirements through exchange."this is the main meaning of marketing, which Philip Kotler designated as "a type of human activity aimed at satisfying needs and requirements through exchange."this is the main meaning of marketing, which Philip Kotler designated as "a type of human activity aimed at satisfying needs and requirements through exchange."

This is the main thing that every state will have to get used to. Not just expanding the degree of influence of individual countries at the level of economy, politics, culture. And penetration into different types of activities of individual economic entities, wherever they may be. The impact is not at the level of state relations or bodies, not at the level of diplomatic contacts or cultural events. A direct contact from subject to subject, from consumer to consumer. Direct influence through identification and authorization, through functional roles and access levels, through personal content and media messages, through targeted activity chains, through hidden restrictions and loyalty. It is practically impossible to control in traditional ways without the use of digital technologies based on platform solutions. Too precise and clear penetrationtoo complex and high-tech impact. Oriented to every region, city, street, house, person.

State Digital Sovereignty

Maintaining state digital sovereignty will require an adequate response. Creating your own digital space, in the form of a network structure of industrial, sectoral, social digital ecosystems that are closely integrated with each other. Moreover, for the most part, areas such ecosystems in which there is competition for the attention of consumers. Quite a complex task. But only it allows you to enter the path of accelerated development. What can be especially important for the domestic economic contour.

Normative regulation

A different approach to the regulatory system is required. Technologies allow us to begin the process of transition to state algorithmic regulation, and the dynamics of changes and the demonstration that every minute is expensive in today's conditions make us hurry with this.

Risk management system

One of the areas that will have to be closed comprehensively high-tech and at the state level is a risk management system. Global and integrated across all sectors, sectors and sectors. The penetration of technologies and the high degree of connectedness of subjects and events forces the complex to combine risks for their subsequent monitoring, prevention of adverse events, elimination of the consequences of their impact and restoration to normal conditions. It is not enough to have, for example, separate centers for work on technological risks, separately for economic or financial risks, separately for natural risks and separately for information and technological risks. Now everything is so permeating each other that a clear and effective integrated management is required, but with the obligatory involvement of professionals from each direction.

Hyper Service Model

Public administration will be forced to gradually move to a hyper-service model. High connectedness of not just individual life situations (services) or their parallel-sequential event-related chains (super services). Now there is another comprehensive approach to meeting the entire spectrum of the interdependent needs of its citizens, business structures and government bodies themselves at all levels. Effective linking of needs among themselves, their coordination and balancing, proactivity in many scenarios of economic and technological development. Tasks and technologies allow and force to look at public administration in a balanced, scientific and systematic way, to calculate and analyze decision-making, to implement the rapid implementation of decisions in digital ecosystems.

Human capital

The previously identified problem of the deficit of human capital is finally leaving the micro at the marko level. For professionals will no longer be forced to fight individual businesses or corporations. Digital ecosystems will fight for professionals. Remoteness is an unconditional factor in the availability of knowledge and competencies for any digital jurisdiction. Now, remote work is the new norm. And it will be very difficult at the state level to control not just the leak of knowledge carriers and competencies, but the leak of knowledge and competencies themselves.

And as a consequence of all these new features - the fundamental task of changing the formation and development of professional highly effective teams in the field of public administration. Including building a competency management system, a project network management system and a full-fledged conscious integrated transition to a manageable digital space.

Ecosystem and platform solutions

The development of platform solutions and digital technologies is intensifying and is already moving from simple and receptive markets and fields of activity to complex high-tech and specialized areas. From random and one-time successful projects to systematic and growing work efficiency. From taxi driving to traffic management in a metropolis, from fitness trackers to telemedicine, from pizza delivery couriers to robotic chefs drawing inspiration and recipes online.

Fragmentation and diversity with simultaneous low-cost integration into digital ecosystems and digital spaces. The obvious need to ensure not only the explosive growth of specialized platform solutions and digital technologies, but also the sustainability of current and future, basic and transactional efficiency, microservice flexibility and constructive competition (providing not only alternative, but also multi-hosting).

One-time and manual solutions seem to stop working everywhere: in analytics, in development, in technology, in innovation. They become too laborious and expensive. Requires a high degree of automation of the automation tasks themselves. Which certainly aggravates the issue of transition to another level of the system of division of labor. And at the same time it makes us think about a new high-quality ecosystem approach in the reengineering of business models with high dynamics of constant changes.

Ecosystem and integration are gradually taking the first place in the key priorities for the development of platform solutions and digital technologies. Network models can give the high speed of development required today, provide complexity and implement the principles of a new type of division of labor system. Today, there are still many problems and questions: from technical to consumer ones. But a steady trend can be seen here quite clearly.

There are things that a person cannot control. And there are extremely many of them. Unfortunately, the most critical and painful ones are among them. But a very good chance appeared to make some of them more understandable and controlled. Not all and not immediately. But such a chance gives digital development, which allows you to actively create and develop network management tools (platform solutions) and digital technologies for the high-quality processing of growing information flows.

Today, many are at a low start.
The question is who will become the leader in 1 year, in 3 years, in 5 years.

Global nulling