Infectious diseases spread along the planet with people. Even in the modern era, outbreaks occur almost constantly, although not every outbreak reaches a pandemic level, as is the case with the new coronavirus (COVID-19).Today's visualization outlines some of the deadliest pandemics in history, from Antonin's plague to today's events with COVID-19.
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The pandemic COVID-19, a potentially severe acute respiratory infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (2019-nCoV), has officially been announced in the world. There is a lot of information on Habré on this topic - always remember that it can be both reliable / useful, and vice versa.
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Diseases and ailments have been tormenting people since the beginning, this is our mortal flaw. However, only after the mass transition to agrarian communities did the spread of diseases increase dramatically.The wide distribution of trade has created new opportunities for the interaction of people and animals, which only accelerated the course of epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, flu, smallpox and other ailments first appeared in those early periods.The more people become civilized - with the growth of cities, with the laying of more and more exotic trade routes, with more and more wide contact with each other of different human populations, animal ecosystems - the more the likelihood of epidemics increases.
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Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred in our long-suffering story:Note. Many of the above death data are current estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are the subject of debate based on new evidence.When you click on the image, a full-size version of 1200 × 1387 will openTranslation of the main text on the infographic
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, COVID-19. Despite the fact that illnesses and pandemics have been our fellow travelers throughout history, over time there has been one steady trend - a gradual decrease in mortality. Improvements in health care and an understanding of the factors causing pandemics have become powerful tools to mitigate their deadly impact.When you click on the image, a full-size version of 1200 × 1434 will openTranslation of the main text on the infographic
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In many archaic societies, people believed that spirits and gods send disease and destruction to those who deserve the wrath of all good. This unscientific perception often entailed catastrophic consequences, leading to the death of thousands, and even millions.In the case of the Justinian plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origin of the plague (bacteria Yersinia pestis) to China and northeastern India through land and sea trade routes to Egypt, from where the disease entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.Despite his obvious understanding of the role played by geography and trade in the spread of the disease, Procopius blamed the mass pestilence on Emperor Justinian, declaring him the devil, incurring God's punishment for his evil deeds. Historians concluded that such a development could well put an end to the efforts of Emperor Justinian to reunite the western and eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, which in turn marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.Fortunately, humanity's understanding of the causes of disease has gradually grown, which has radically improved the response to pandemics. Although this reaction was often too belated and incomplete.Import disease
The practice of quarantine dates back to the 14th century, as a means of protecting coastal cities from plague epidemics. The cautious authorities demanded that ships arriving in Venice from infected ports wait 40 days before mooring. The very word " quarantine " of Italian origin is from "quaranta giorni" ie 40 days.One of the first cases where geography and statistical analysis were used to counter the epidemic occurred in London in the mid-19th century during an outbreak of cholera. In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera spreads through contaminated water, and decided to display mortality data in the vicinity directly on the map. This method revealed a group of cases around a particular intake column from which people took water.While the interaction created by trade and urban life plays a key role, the nature of the virulence of certain diseases also indicates the path of the pandemic.Infectivity tracking
Scientists use the baseline measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the base number of reproduction , also known as R 0 or R-zero . This number indicates how many susceptible people, on average, will infect each patient.Translation of the main text on the infographicR0 —
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(, MERS): R0 = 0.8
(Influenza): R0 = 1.5
(Ebola): R0 = 2.0
2019 (COVID-19): R0 = 2.5 — , .
(, « », SARS): R0 = 3.5
(«», Mumps): R0 = 4.5
(Rubella): R0 = 6.0
(Smallpox): R0 = 6.0
(Measles): R0 = 16.0
Measles leads the list, being the most contagious with a range of R 0 = 12-18. This means that one person can infect an average of 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.Although measles can be extremely dangerous, vaccination efforts and collective immunity are holding back its spread. The more people who are immune to the disease, the less likely it is to spread, which makes vaccination critical to prevent the recurrence of known and treatable diseases.It is currently problematic to calculate and predict the true impact of COVID-19, because the pandemic is in full swing, and researchers are still studying this new form of coronavirus.Urbanization and the spread of disease
We are back to where we started - the growth of global ties acts as the driving force of the pandemic. At least in small tribes of hunter-gatherers, at least in megalopolises, people's dependence on each other opens up opportunities for the spread of diseases.Urbanization in the developing world leads to the fact that more and more rural people fall into denser areas, while an increase in population puts more pressure on the environment. At the same time, passenger traffic has almost doubled over the past decade. These macro trends have a profound effect on the spread of infectious diseases.Since organizations and governments are now asking citizens to voluntarily go into self-isolation to reduce the rate of infection, the digital world allows people to maintain social connections and commerce like never before.Editor's Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is in its early stages, and it is obviously impossible to predict its impact in the long run. This publication and the infographics in it are intended primarily to represent the historical context.UPDATE: Infographic updated April 11, 2020.
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