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Why COVID-19 quarantine is still overreacting

Typically, panic is inversely proportional to awareness. In the case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, this is not so: data on its exaggerated danger are published, but the level of fear nonetheless continues to grow. Obviously, the media environment independently produces the messages necessary to maintain the alarm state. In addition, data interpretation plays a large role.

The risks


Yesterday, the FB reacted to the news about the cancellation of the Olympics in Tokyo in the following way: right, otherwise, "for many athletes, the Olympics, with such an epidemic, could be the last."

Obviously, in the mass consciousness, the degree of danger of the virus is rated as high for everyone.

One of the main sources of epidemic data is Hopkins University of America. The statistics about the disease COVID- 19 provides data on mortality obtained even in China, but they are still considered relevant, since article updated March 23.

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For adults under 40, mortality is 0.2%. Of these, most deaths are caused by concomitant causes (heart and respiratory diseases, cancer).
Unconditioned cases - 0.9%.

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Consequently, 1 death is possible in 55,000 healthy adults.
Against this background, is it reasonable to say that a pandemic really threatens many athletes?

I can not resist comparisons, because still, images, not numbers, act on consciousness.
Last year in Ukraine, 3400 people died in traffic accidents (population - 41 million) = one victim per 12,000 people. (of course, we are talking about all ages, and 164 children died).

The article on Habré claims (without links) that "among healthy people under the age of 50, the mortality rate is quite low, but it is still 20 times higher than that of the flu." In comparison with the above data, these figures are overstated by 10 times for the age group in general and 100 for healthy ones.

In the article “Coronavirus: how do we deceive ourselves” dated March 18, Ilya Pestov speaks in detail about why the available statistics on COVID-19 are overestimated. So, about Italy, which showed a 6% mortality rate, he logically proves that the cause of high numbers is the age of the sick.

Over the past week, media publications have already appeared that allow us not to assume, but simply talk about it. In particular, Telegraph on March 23 reports that “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre- morbidity - many had two or three. "

“A study in JAMA this week found that almost 40 per cent of infections and 87 per cent of deaths in the country have been in patients over 70 years old.”

That is, with a mortality rate of 6% in Italy, 90% of the dead are over 70 years old, and even 90% of them died not from the coronavirus itself.

Economy


In one of the first and most popular articles about coronavirus on Habré, the first comment is “Too much panic. Because of it, the economy will suffer, which will bring much more harm to people than the virus itself ”(from 12.03) is intensively minus. However, later Yevgeny Peskin cited a Harvard study based on data from 200 years, with the conclusion that a fall in GDP of 10% or more leads to a (delayed) increase in mortality by 5%.

Therefore, statements that panic does more harm than a virus are not unfounded, although they cause a vivid emotional reaction.

I will not provide links to numerous publications on how quarantine affects the economy - there are plenty of them and there is no doubt about the effect. The only question is the justification of these victims.

Emotions


It seems that SARS-CoV-2 is still, first and foremost, a media virus with a good presentation and publicity. Both the statements of “supporters” and many “opponents” work for a high “credibility” of the coronavirus because of their poor adequacy (I will not post a hackneyed video about grannies and “burning of the coronavirus in a bucket”).

But the media picture directly affects emotions, and they always deceive. We watch videos from the crowded corridors of Italian hospitals, and this makes us anxious. Obviously, we do not see victims of tuberculosis (1,600,000 deaths last year, 4,500 per day), and therefore it does not bother us. If you indicate their presence, the mind easily finds excuses for the emotional mood (“but there is a cure for tuberculosis!” - as the FB objected to me, despite the obvious discrepancy between “there is a cure” and the fact of death).

Globally, coronavirus does not threaten humanity, and that's for sure. Here is a very cruel graph of the Earth’s population over the past 20 centuries:

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It is inhumanly cruel because he “did not notice” World War 2 and the “Spanish woman” epidemic, which was hundreds of times more dangerous than the coronavirus (in Zambia, mortality was 21% of the total population, not infected).

I believe that every human life is a value. COVID-19 is undoubtedly a tangible threat to people over 70. However, there is an option to use the isolation of people from risk groups, and not society as a whole.

In a number of countries, including in Britain, the government advocated the introduction of limited measures to combat the epidemic, and tightened them under public pressure.

After some time, it may turn out that the phraseJohn PA Ioannidis about "an elephant who, frightened by a cat, jumps off a cliff and dies." However, the higher the price of the error, the more difficult it will be to admit. If the economy is destroyed by quarantine and the weeks of self-isolation so called around are behind, people will not be ready to accept the updated data that coronavirus was not much more dangerous than seasonal flu. Therefore, the sooner the reversal of opinions and the reduction of fears occur, the better.

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