Hello again, friends!
In the article “The time of lithium-ion UPS: fire hazard or a safe step into the future?” We dealt with the issue of the predicted cost of Li-Ion solutions (drives, batteries) in specific terms - $ / kW * h. Then for 2020 there was a forecast of 200 $ / kWh. Now, as can be seen from the KDPV, the cost of lithium has gone below $ 150 and a rapid fall is forecasted below $ 100 / kWh (according to Forbes ). What does this change, you ask? First of all, the gap between the cost of classic batteries and advanced technologies, as well as solutions based on them, is narrowing. Let's try to calculate on the basis of the case of the same Japanese submarine on Li-Ion batteries.
Initial data
As the source data, we take:- $ 200 / kWh forecast from our article on lithium fire safety
- 300 $/* 2018 « .....»
- VRLA Li-Ion 1,5-2 , 2018 .
- ,
- - : , , . « »
- 17*, 2017 300$/*. 5,1 . .
- If we take into account the real value of the KDPV, then the decline for 2 years was approximately 30%. At the prices of 2019, we get a savings of about 1.5 million dollars. Not bad, huh? I think when building such boats, you need to load it with Li-Ion batteries at the last moment, right before going on sea trials
- It can be assumed that for industrial solutions on lithium batteries, the cost drop, read the price equalization with lead-acid battery arrays is faster than expected. In a 2018 article, the estimated difference in lithium battery UPSs was 1.5-2 times more expensive than a classic UPS. At present, this gap should objectively be smaller ...
… to be continued…