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[COVID-19] Your task is to smooth the peak

A month ago, I updated the half-mask filter kits. Two weeks ago, I bought long-term food products. At the same time, I began to compose a first-aid kit and take the medicine I needed.

No, I didn’t do it because I was going to go into isolation for months. I am trying to smooth out the load on all support systems in a cooperative pandemic game. And at the same time not to be left without the necessary things.

Why is it important? I'll try to tell you in a couple of minutes.

What's happening?


You probably saw this, or a similar picture, illustrating the burden on the healthcare system:

image

This is a great illustration of why load balancing is an important thing.

Now let's think about more mundane things. For example, about food.

In a normal situation, stores provide people with products evenly. You go to the store several times a month or more often, take what you need. There are many people, and at different times they come to shop - the store can calculate how much it needs to provide goods on average.

What is happening now? People are procured months in advance. A “peak” forms at the store. Shelves become half empty.

And what do people start to think when they see half-empty shelves? What you need to buy more, because otherwise the next time you can come and see nothing at all in the store.

And we get explosive load growth in a short period, which the supply system cannot handle. We will have a part of the population of buckwheat sitting on the mountains, and another part that came to an empty store.

The same thing can happen with any other coronavirus and quarantine system:

  1. Products
  2. Medicines (It's not so scary here - prescription drugs are a bit more complicated to buy)
  3. PPE (masks, gloves, respirators, filters)
  4. Medical devices (it is strange that people have not bought pulse oximeters yet)
  5. Pet food
  6. Household items (yes, I noticed here that for some reason some people care about the annual supply of toilet paper)

It is clear that the peak of demand will pass at some point. But while it will work, we may find ourselves in an unpleasant situation when the products / things we need are not found.

What to do?


And here the magic of cooperative games begins.

You see, if all people acted in a coordinated manner, the peak of the supply load would not have happened. We would just come to the store and take what we need.

But if we try to do this, and other people go buy products for a year, we will lose. The classic prisoner's dilemma - everyone will be better off if people do not buy food a year in advance, but the dominant strategy is to buy food.

Fortunately, this is not a binary case. We can vary the number of purchases.

I thought about this for a long time, and came to the conclusion that the best strategy is to buy a limited number of necessary things. With a small margin that will allow to wait out explosive demand.

If you buy products for a month / two - this will not greatly increase the load on the store. Well, let's say, not as much as if you buy buckwheat for 3 years in advance. And we will have enough reserves to wait out the peak, which will cause people who are sweeping everything off the shelves.

Thus, you protect yourself from a situation in which you do not have the necessary things left. And do not harm other people, as sweeping everything does. We will receive a reduction in the risks of panic and the use of barrage measures (coupons / decrees aimed at regulating demand).

Chart explanation:
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, - :

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— , — .

, - :

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, , . .


That is why, I started buying the necessary goods in advance. And that is why I did not take a lot of them.

I do not urge you not to purchase the necessary goods with a margin. This will only work if everyone does this. Which, unfortunately, will not happen.

But refrain from buying mountains of products that you don’t need - so you hurt everyone.

License: CC-NC-BY-SA 4.0

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