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Why everyone should think about it: answers to the most pressing questions about the Covid-19 coronavirus

The author of the article, Dave Troy, is a researcher of online misinformation and lies, as well as an expert in the field of calculations related to disease statistics. Recently, he answered many questions about Covid-19 on social networks, trying to refute misconceptions and lies. Here are the most common answers, in the hope that this information will become more accessible to others.

Dave is not a specialist in the field of health and medicine, but he made an extra effort to bring all the answers in line with official data and medical recommendations.

Why do people worry more about the virus than the flu?


Each person infected with seasonal flu can infect approximately 1.3 other people. SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) infects about three times as many people (an estimated 2 to 4). This number is called the reproductive factor, or “R0” (sometimes pronounced R-zero). This speed of spread allows the virus to multiply very quickly, and this can lead to an overload of an already busy healthcare system.

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The pandemic COVID-19, a potentially severe acute respiratory infection caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (2019-nCoV), has officially been announced in the world. There is a lot of information on Habré on this topic - always remember that it can be both reliable / useful, and vice versa.

We urge you to be critical of any published information.


Official sources

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It is true that among healthy people under the age of 50, the mortality rate is quite low, but it is still 20 times higher than that of the flu. At the same time, in elderly patients the mortality rate is much higher. The table below shows the distribution of age-specific mortality estimates for coronavirus and influenza. According to WHO estimates , the average mortality rate of COVID-19 is 3.4%, which is about 100 times higher than that of influenza. Nevertheless, we should not forget that this average indicator does not take into account age groups. Available data indicate that the mortality rate from COVID-19 in older people and people with cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and cancer, as well as in patients with immunodeficiency syndrome is higher - from 9% to 19% ( WHO briefing on March 9) Even if you yourself are not at high risk, we still have a social duty to take measures that will prevent the spread of the virus, which could lead to an overload of the health system, as is happening now in Italy.



If this happens to me, why not just survive it? I do not want to change my habits just for the sake of prevention, because this, apparently, is not dangerous.


Do not be a person who, because of his indifference, spends medical resources that someone needs more than you. This is a matter of ethics, humanity: we must minimize the spread of the virus so that health care resources (from diagnosis, treatment, to ventilators and oxygen concentrators) are available to people who need them most. Share this infographic on the pages of social networks, it clearly explains why this is so important. Look at it in terms of loadon the healthcare system. If we can slow down the spread, we will have more time to react and prepare. Slower distribution will save many lives, because an overloaded health system will not be able to help everyone who needs it. Health experts call this “curve alignment,” and this is perhaps our best and only mitigation strategy.



Are other diseases, such as SARS, MERS, or H1N1, more deadly? Why bother with the Covid-19 coronavirus?


The problem is not so much mortality as the overall impact of the outbreak. Although other diseases can be more fatal, a combination of reproductive factor (R0), population susceptibility, and immunity can make them more manageable. SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19) is completely new to humanity, so no one is safe. The human body is already accustomed to regular outbreaks of influenza, as this disease appeared long ago and many undergo annual vaccination. There is no clinical trial for SARS-CoV-2 yet. Such a vaccine will not be widely available until the first quarter of 2021. Therefore, it is expected that a very large number of people will be infected.

How fast will it spread?


We do not know, but it seems that the number of infected people doubled every few days. We do not know how the virus reacts to the temperature or humidity of the surrounding air (see the next question). Here you can observe the spread of coronavirus in your country. And perhaps the real numbers are actually even higher.

Does he not calm down by the summer, as the ordinary flu does?


We do not yet know , although there is reason to believe that this disease can weaken at higher temperatures. However, it has a high reproductive factor (R0), a high prodromal (asymptomatic) period of about 14 days, so this is far from the same as flu. In warmer countries, such as Singapore, there are already infected people. We observe the development of events in other warm countries, in which there are also such cases. And do not forget that people can be carriers without symptoms. The virus can go into sleep mode during warmer summer temperatures, as well as move to the southern hemisphere, where the climate is cooler. In the fall, he can continue from where he left off and hit new people. So, do not expect this to end by September.

When will the vaccine be available? Can't we just stop this?


Vaccines are under development, but it will take time to market a workable, proven vaccine to the market. Some pharmacist teams claim that they already have vaccines in March 2020, but in any case, it will take some time to refine, test, manufacture, market and deliver these drugs. Producing enough vaccines for billions of people will not be an easy task, and it will take time, capital, and coordination with governments. According to experts , vaccines will not be available until the first quarter of 2021.

How should I protect myself? Is it worth stocking up with a hand sanitizer?


Your best defense is washing your hands frequently with soap and water. Try not to touch your face: nose, eyes and other mucous organs. Hand sanitizers with a high alcohol content more or less work, but soap and water are extremely effective and should be a priority. Soap molecules are oblong, one end is hydrophobic (in fact, it is fat, it does not mix with water, but clings well to dirt, bacteria and viruses), the other end is hydrophilic (that is, it joins water). When we wash our hands or wash clothes, particles of the affected cells adhere to the oblong soap molecules, at the ends of which streams of water later “tear” them from the surface. After this, dirt or harmful particles (covered with soap) can no longer cling back to the skin and tissue.

A hand sanitizer can make the virus powerless, but leave it on your hands. Wash your hands often. Keep your distance from other people and try to avoid unnecessary travel and social events. Here’s one recommendation from the US Department of Health’s federal agency: if you’re somewhere and don’t have free access to soap and water, go to another place where they are and stay there.

China and Korea have proven that this can be slowed down and stopped. Can't we just do what they did?


The governments of China and Korea have taken extremely decisive action to minimize the spread of this disease. In China, an authoritarian regime that can unilaterally impose and provide for a massive blockage of the activities of individuals for several weeks. It will be more difficult for governments in the USA and Europe to do this, but we are likely to see a growing number of closed schools, cancellation of events, restrictions on movement and other measures of social distance. Italy has just introduced monthly quarantine for 16 million people. Nicholas Christakis, Spaniard flu expert, suggests that the sooner we do this, the more lives we can save.

When will everything be back to square one?


We do not know. Most likely, in March, April, May and June 2020 the situation will not change. In addition, we can fix a certain respite in those parts of the world where the weather is warmer. But given that the vaccine on an industrial scale will not be released until 2021, a few more outbreaks may well occur before that time. Every month we try to make these estimates more accurately. You should not expect that everything will return to normal in the near future. In the fall, another outbreak may occur.

Panic causes almost more harm than the coronavirus itself. Should we really care so much about this? Why is there so much fear?


Yes! Panic, anxiety and fear are completely useless. Instead, we must be realistic. One must be prepared for various consequences. We must have a rational basis for reflection. You need to understand how to respond to this and have full transparency on the part of the government. Although we may not be ideal, we can certainly calm down and understand the statistics behind it and take reasonable steps to minimize the risk. Having food supplies for 2-3 weeks and the necessary medicines at hand is an excellent preparation. But to collect in large quantities such things as masks for breathing, it is only necessary when there is a risk of frequent contact with sick people. We hope that these questions and answers will help to put everything in its place.

Why are conferences canceled? Shouldn't I just go to the conference I’ve signed up for?


The US Department of Health has suggested that social distance measures and travel restrictions can help slow the spread of the disease. Many conference organizers also face obstacles from participants, sponsors, and contractors. In some cases, local authorities force the cancellation of major events .

For this reason, many organizers decide to postpone events until a later date or suspend work until this situation is resolved. In general, you should bear in mind that minimizing the interaction of large groups of people is now of paramount importance to society. And if you still need to travel, you can think about which vehicle to choose: a car, train or plane.

Here are the materials (though they are English-speaking) that will help you make your own opinion on this topic:



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