Get best of the week

[Forecast] Transport of the future: medium-term horizon

imageAbout the Author: Brad Templeton is a software engineer, an evangelist of robotic cars since 2007, and worked on Google in his early years. Founder of ClariNet , honorary chairman of the Electronic Frontier Foundation and director of the Foresight Institute , founder of the faculty at Singularity University .

Part 1: short-term horizon
Part 2: medium-term horizon
Part 3: long-term horizon

Mid-term technology horizon

(Autopilot, delivery bot, auto-feed, convoy, road train)

Autopilot


The next big step will be the autopilot. Like an autopilot in airplanes, he will have to drive the vehicle in simple situations, but the driver will need to monitor the movement and be ready to take control. The autopilot must be able to keep the car in the lane and maintain the necessary distance from other cars. Also, the autopilot could issue loud alarms in the event of an unusual situation.

A simple autopilot is a reliable version of the highway driving features we have now. In fact, manufacturers selling lane departure warning systems say that the main reason they don't stop the car from leaving the lane is responsibility. This responsibility probably comes with a surprise for the user who forgot to use this signal,

The autopilot will not independently change lanes or turn, but he will be able to cope with highway driving and interchanges. He may also be able to drive on one-way city streets, although passenger presence raises the bar.

(We are not so far from this - you will see if you read about the experiment with the 1995 VaMP autopilot )

Human Support Autopilot


Another option for autopilot may be a system that will periodically ask a person for advice, but will not require constant attention. (Systems that can manage with periodic adjustment of the driver-human movement were created more than ten years ago)

In this case, if the system sees a situation (possibly a rare one) that it cannot understand, it will turn to the person for advice. If necessary, she will stop or slow down until she receives advice. Ideally, a system incomprehensible situation should be detected in advance. For example, if the car database indicates that a traffic light is at the nearest intersection and the car cannot determine its signal, then you should ask a person about it.

(A person does not have to be in the car, the issue can be resolved by sending a video to the person who is in another place)

Bot for deliveries in cities


There is a departure from the methods described above, which can happen before the creation of a full-fledged robot car. This retreat is a mini delivery robot. At first, his work will be demonstrated at combat points, but as soon as these robots earn some trust, they will be able to reach cities.

Why can they be on the streets before robotic machines?

  • Delivery bots can be limited in weight to reduce the damage that can be caused to goods in an emergency.
  • Excluding the issue of damage to pedestrians, if the delivery botnet falls and crashes into something or rolls over, only property will suffer.
  • The delivery bot does not have to rush. They can travel on slow and sparsely populated streets at low speeds. If cars follow them, they can drive off to the side. If pedestrians are detected, they can slow down even more and move with even greater caution. The cargo does not care.

On the other hand, it may take less time for society to trust a car on autopilot with an observing semi-driver before trusting a deliveryman. However, if cars cannot drive up to people on demand on their own, many of the benefits will be leveled.

I have a text about other interesting consequences of creating bots for urban delivery .

Whistlecar: Auto-feed machine (whistle machine)


The technology of delivery bots will allow you to do something even more interesting. For example, a car can be created that goes over to autonomous control only if there are no passengers. In other words, we could get technology that will allow us to move cars at low speeds without transporting passengers. This technology can be used to deliver cars to drivers on demand. People will still be able to drive themselves when they get into it.

I will use the term “whistle machine”, because the concept is similar to how the Lone Ranger could whistle, and his horse named Silver immediately resorted to it (since the path that these machines have to go is very long, Gandalf's horse might be the best metaphor , Tenegriv).

Whistle cars will provide many of the advantages of robot machines, which I designated earlier, in particular, they will be able to provide cars on demand and choose the right car for the trip. Such cars will be able to park and refuel on their own, which will provide corresponding advantages.

However, these cars will not allow drivers to work, read or relax while riding. The driver will still be required to feel the road. These machines may not be very good at reducing congestion or calling other machines. They can also be two-wheeled.

These cars can still get into accidents. However, they will be equipped with accident prevention technologies, which is why accidents are likely to occur much less frequently. However, since these machines themselves will not be able to save lives, any accidents that they will suffer when they deliver themselves will be perceived as a huge flaw, and this may prevent the spread of these machines.

Technically, creating a whistle machine might be easier than creating a fully robotic machine. Moving from place to place, the car whistle can move slower and more carefully. If a problem is detected, such a machine can turn and brake more sharply. She can also stop and establish a video connection with a nearby teleparker (remote operator) who can solve problems that can only be solved by a person. These cars can also travel on a limited set of streets until they get closer to their destination.

A whistle car will take longer to get to you than a robot car, but if there are a lot of these cars, then it will arrive in a reasonable time. Whistle cars make Carshare conceptmuch more attractive, because the cars themselves will come to you. If you make an appointment, you won’t have to wait.

You can read a more detailed overview of such machines .

Non-urban applications


We can see that robotic vehicles were primarily deployed in rural areas, and, in fact, they are already being used in certain industrial areas. Mining, drilling and agriculture are ripe for the use of robotics. These robots can get early permission to ride on rural roads - slow, with full marking and no passengers - before full-fledged robotic cars are on the roads.

Robotic convoy


Tighter vehicle placement while driving increases fuel efficiency by 45%. The reason is that when you set speed, the force necessary to overcome the wind resistance and increase along with the cubic speed becomes the main absorber of movement energy. In part, trains are effective because one long train with a small wind profile moves along the rails.

Increasing the density of cars on the road is dangerous for other drivers. If the car in front slows down, a person will not be able to react quickly enough. But the automated system will be able, if it is of high enough quality. We drive close enough along the highway, and most of the time there are no accidents, but a denser construction is much more difficult to organize.

However, we could go further and develop the concept of a convoy. In such a “train” the front driver will control the situation. All other cars follow the directions of the front car. Although these machines are not physically connected, they can move like a train, almost doubling efficiency.

Of course, cars must really trust the lead driver. Such trains, which can form self-organizing constructions on the roads, may require that the lead driver have a special license (for example, a license to operate a bus). In fact, every day we rely on the skills of bus drivers. Also in the convoy in front there can be 2 or 3 drivers who actively control the movement and are ready to take control in case of emergency.

Cars equipped to follow the leader could see a convoy passing by and ask for permission to join it. Such cars will go to the back (or even middle) part of the convoy and adjust the controls. A redundant network will be required, and in case of loss of control, all cars will go into fault-tolerant mode, quickly widening the gap or changing to different lanes. Cars do not need centralized management to maintain distance - this technology is already available. Centralized management will be used only for any (rare) lane changes, as well as to ensure that all vehicles remain in their lane.

Of course, we must be sure of the safety of such trains, since an accident involving them will have disastrous consequences. Fear of such events can greatly delay the adoption of these technologies.

USA convoy truck rides



A convoy of robotic trucks may be on the road earlier than a convoy of passenger cars. All trucks are driven by professional drivers who can be trained to drive convoys. In the Australian outback there are "road trains", which are a truck with 3 trailers. They are separated at transit stations on the outskirts of cities (a road train with three trailers uses 2/3 of the fuel and 1/3 of the personnel of three semi-trucks with one trailer).

In simple mode, the convoy can be formed of 3 trucks with 3 drivers, and each of the drivers takes on a change of control of the convoy, and at this time the rest can rest or sleep. Other vehicles may join, but their number will be limited. Since trucks will go one by one, fuel consumption will be more economical than with conventional cargo transportation, as well as more competitive compared to rail (which currently surpasses trucks in energy consumption in the ratio of 4 to 1). Of course, the weight of trucks requires such systems of the highest safety, and also mechanisms are necessary that will allow cars to quickly go around these slow convoys.

In fact, experiments were conducted in Europewith such convoys.

The main problem of road trains with a high level of interaction is safety. The vehicle described above is 2 times longer and 3 times heavier. Driving under the control of a robot can increase the level of safety enough to allow such convoys to travel on more roads, even with a large number of trailers.

Other countries


As confidence in robotic cars and technologies that help avoid accidents grows, we will see how several powerful forces lobby them. Of course, there must be new organizations that are convinced of their values, but let's look at the following aspects that have an impact:

Car companies


Automakers will sell robotic cars and cars with accident prevention technologies. They used to be the most influential lobbyists in the USA. "What is good for General Motors is good for America." Now this power will be directed to the legalization and public acceptance of robotic cars.

Sierra club


Since robotic cars promote the use of electric vehicles and reduce environmental pollution, environmental lobbies will support at least this component of them.

Mothers Against Drunk Driving


Mothers against drunk driving and other groups of road accident victims will be strong supporters if they are convinced that robotic cars will be safer than ordinary ones.

Alcohol industry


This rich and powerful industry will celebrate for itself the fact that robotic cars can eliminate the problem of drunk driving. Bars and breweries will mark an advantage for drinkers who do not care about how they get home. They will be very surprised at the fact that they are on the same side as their mothers against drunk driving.

American Association of Senior Citizens and Persons with Disabilities


Sometimes people lose the ability to drive a car with age. This may be due to age-related changes or difficulties in getting into standard cars. Robot machines will provide convenient transportation of such people, and although AARP is not a group of technophiles, fractions of such groups will see that all these technologies will make the lives of older people full.

Obviously, robotic cars will become God's gift for the blind or other persons who are not able to obtain a driver’s license. Such cars also offer interesting opportunities for people using wheelchairs and those who depend on paratransit infrastructure with high latency. Electric robotic cars free up the construction of cars, which simplifies the production of vehicles with an empty body, the rear of which can go down like the tail of a ramp, so that a person in a wheelchair can simply drive into the car and secure his seat for the ride. And although there will be few such cars in the fleets of robotic taxis, which will lead to significant delays when calling, they will still arrive faster than paratransit and will cost much less.

(I recall a number of other designs for a vehicle for one person with disabilities, including one that can lower to the ground by suspension, as well as a robotic wheelchair)

Moms Athletes


Children (and their parents) will also benefit from vehicles that can safely transport them long before they can get a driver’s license. In this case, not the children will represent the lobby, but their parents.

Jews


In Jewish society, there are all kinds of opinions about driving and riding Shabbat. I expect that there will be many arguments (from those whose opinions are somewhere in the middle) about whether it is possible to drive a robotic car (which, if you will, I will call “Shabbot”) on this day.

All of the above parties form a significant set of lobbyists. However, there will be opponents: oil companies, technophobes and unions (such as Teamsters), as many truck and taxi drivers will be fired.

Continued Part 3: long-term horizon

Part 1: short-term horizon
Part 2: medium-term horizon
Part 3: long-term horizon


image

About ITELMA
- automotive . 2500 , 650 .

, , . ( 30, ), -, -, - (DSP-) .

, . , , , . , automotive. , , .

Read more useful articles:

More articles:


All Articles