Mike (Manager): What is the likelihood that you can manage in three days?Peter (Developer): I can handle it.Mike: Can you name a number?Peter: Fifty or sixty percent.Mike: So there is a pretty high probability that you will need four days?Peter: Yes. even five or six may be needed, although I doubt it.Mike: To what extent do you doubt it?Peter: Oh, I don’t know ... I’m ninety-five percent sure that the work will be done in less than six days.Mike: So maybe seven?Peter:Well, if everything goes awry ... Damn, if EVERYTHING goes awry, maybe ten or even eleven days. But the probability of such a coincidence is very small, right?