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Novel Coronavirus nCOV / 2019-nCoV / NCP / COVID19: Forecasts, Statistics, Protection, News [4th reprint, rev.07.03]

Coronavirus (Novel nCOV / 2019-nCoV / NCP / COVID19)



I started creating my own site, so I’ll be busy.
It turned out that new line breaks do not work in html mode, switched to markdown.
Updated timeline: You can go , there is all the news from 01/26. English version of the timeline: all news from 2019 to 02.22, (I have not updated it yet).
Statistics usually by 12.00, a lot to consider. News comes out earlier now.
Habr uses attachment to keys. However, it stopped working for me.
I went into the browser in the security state changed to HSTS, while it works. If I can’t stop by in the future, it’s not my fault.
The publication of the English version took place (Few views)
Third version (Ru) 200,000 letters + 150,000 news.22.01. The publication had to be reduced, part of the news in Codepen (Timeout).
Third version (Ru) 02/04/100000 letters.
The second version (Ru) 28.01.70000 letters.
First version (Ru) 01/26/50,000 letters


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Clickable links: New: Links to modified material.


Clickable links: New: Links to modified material.



  1. Extended Facts: Family
  2. Extended Facts: Typology
  3. Extended Facts: Size
  4. Extended Facts: Other
  5. Extended Facts: Build
  6. Symptom Data: Invasion
  7. Symptom Data: Main Symptoms
  8. Similar signs of three coronaviruses
  9. Gaps in understanding the source of coronavirus
  10. Understanding Gaps: One Case from the Past
  11. Understanding Gaps: One Case from the Past, 2
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The complete 2019-nCoV genome is now stored online at GenBank: MN908947.3 .
Link to chronology: <a href= lower codepen.io/jamiahabrahan/pen/LYVZZaz> Chronology.
WHO scientific articles:
1

Complete 2019-nCoV genome, now stored online at GenBank: MN908947.3 .

Extended Facts: Family


02.02

Coronaviruses are a family of RNA viruses that includes 40 types of viruses in 2 subfamilies as of January 2020. They were named because of the structure of their envelope in the form of a corona.
Coronavirus was first isolated in 1965 in a patient with acute rhinitis. In 2002-2003, the SARS-CoV virus appeared in China. (8000 sick, 800 dead).
In 2012, MERS-CoV. At the end of 2019-beginning of 2020 2019-nCoV. In addition to zoonotic (approx. Pathogens parasitize in the body which is a natural reservoir for them) SARS- and MERS-CoV,
there are four “established” human coronaviruses (HCoV).

Extended Facts: Typology


02.02

2019-nCoV: Kingdom: Riboviria, Type: Incertae Sedis, Order: Nidovirales, Family: Coronaviridae, Genus: etacoronavirus, Subgenus: Sarbecovirus Are
divided into 4 genera, which are called alpha-coronavirus, beta-coronavirus, gamma-coronavirus 1 and delta .

HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E are alpha-coronaviruses (120-160 nanometers), while HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, 2019-nCoV are beta-coronaviruses, 1 and 2

Extended Facts: Size


02.02

Viral particles (approx. Virions) are spherical in shape, with some changes in the internal structure (approx. Signs of polymorphism) with a diameter of 75-160 nm (size 2019-nCoV from 60 to 140 / ~ 120 nanometers in diameter).
The height of the protrusions of different coronaviruses averages 12-24 nm (2019-nCoV 9-12).

Extended Facts: Other


01/26

Different types of coronaviruses infect humans, cats, birds, dogs, cattle, pigs and hares, bats, camels and other animals.

Extended Facts: Build


02.02

Coronaviruses are viruses with a positive RNA chain (+ RNA) and, compared to other RNA viruses, have an exceptionally large genome (from thousands of base pairs) and use a complex process strategy (approx. Genome expression.),
Where hereditary information (DNA nucleotide sequences) converted to RNA or protein.

They have a polycistronic (approx. Number of sides) genome organization and use a unique transcription mechanism to generate a nested set of subgenomic (sg) mRNAs.

Coronaviruses have a single-stranded RNA genome that encodes 4–5 structural proteins, including the outer membrane protein (N), matrix protein (M), small membrane protein (E), spike (S) glycoprotein (protein), which ensures cell binding and penetration.
Some beta-coronaviruses have a protein (glycoprotein) (HE) that some enveloped viruses use as an invasion mechanism. HE helps in attaching and destroying certain sialic acid receptors
that are located on the surface of the host cell ... 0 .

Symptom Data: Invasion


02.02

SARS-CoV and a similar 2019-nCoV begins its life cycle by binding its viral particle through a two-component protein (glycoprotein),
which is encoded by the S-segment of the virus genome with the ACE2 receptor on the target cell, and the virus particle is captured by the process of capture of external material by the cell.

Its protein S changes position to facilitate fusion of the endosomal membrane and the release of the RNA genome into the target cell.
After transcription and translation, the viral structural and non-structural proteins and genomic RNA are then assembled into viral particles (approximately the assembly of the virus from the components takes place) .Then
they are transported through intracellular organelles and released from the target cell.

Symptom Data: Main Symptoms


01/26

Symptoms are generally similar to similar coronaviruses: cough, fever, shortness of breath, chest pain ...
The virus is difficult to distinguish from ordinary diseases and it is not always possible to determine the disease with a thermal imager.


In severe forms of coronavirus infection, rapid progression of lower respiratory tract disease can be observed.

In almost all patients with a severe course of the disease, there may be progressive acute respiratory failure.
Pneumonia is detected in almost 100% of seriously ill patients, acute respiratory failure is diagnosed in 90-95% of patients.
Other symptoms in critically ill patients include pneumonia, acute respiratory failure, acute respiratory distress syndrome, sepsis, and septic shock.

02.02?

Irregular cases of signs different from other coronaviruses were recorded at the Wuhan People’s Hospital: Some of the patients in the first stages had poor appetite,
fatigue, mental problems, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, and headache. Only after a while did pulmonary pneumonia symptoms begin to be observed.
There is definitely nothing good about the variable characteristics; this may be, in part, a sign of mutability and significant differences in viral samples (polymorphism) or even virus instability.

02.02?

Recently, in the medical journal Lancet, information appeared about the disease of an entire family, including a child.
This is the first such case. Scientists noted a very high infectiousness of the virus, the chance of infection with the close proximity of the diseased is high.

Similar signs of three coronaviruses


01/28?

Scientists have confirmed that coronavirus belongs to the same group of viruses as the causative agent of SARS-CoV SARS, as well as the strain of Middle Eastern respiratory syndrome MERS-CoV. Hundreds of people died from diseases caused by these viruses.

The 2019-nCoV genome is very similar to the already known coronaviruses. Its RNA most (96.2% nucleotide coincidence) was similar to the RNA of a virus similar to the SARS virus found a couple of years ago in bats Rhinolophus affinis in Yunan Province.

According to other studies, the 2019-nCoV gene coincides 79.5% with the SARS-CoV SARS RNA. It retained one of its five sites unchanged.
He also has the same receptor (ACE2).

However, there is a high probability that the new virus differs from SARS and from the bat virus, including mortality (-) and transmission rate (+), more about this below.

Gaps in understanding the source of coronavirus


01/26 (Understanding gaps: A study of what was done with hCoV-EMC)

There is a significant likelihood that scientists still do not fully understand the nature of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus or are even mistaken again, as was the case with the hCoV-EMC virus discovered in 2012.

Understanding gaps: One such case


At that time, it was also suggested that hCoV-EMC and SARS had the same infection pathway, but this was not confirmed after studies.
In 2012, as a result of studies at the University of Bonn Medical Center at modifying hamster kidney cells, scientists forced them to produce ACE2 human receptors.

SARS-coronavirus was able to enter these cells, but hCoV-EMC did not succeed - this proves that the hCoV-EMC virus does not need ACE2 receptors to enter the cell.
What is most interesting, then it was not possible to establish which receptors are needed by hCoV-EMC.

Understanding gaps: One such case, 2


01/26

Also a signal that scientists still do not fully understand the origin of the virus can be a recent statement that the current virus was transmitted from snakes, which many scientists consider unlikely.

Nature magazine published commentaries by leading virologists from around the world stating that snakes could hardly have been the source of a new coronavirus.

Understanding Gaps: Probably the Wrong Hypothesis


01/28

There is a hypothesis that the 2019-nCoV virus was obtained in the laboratory from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. (approx. Then there were scientific articles hinting at this; see paragraphs Understanding spaces: Probable medium, studies, 2 and 3)

Understanding Gaps: Probable Carrier, Research


01/28

Another group of researchers at the Wuhan Institute believe that the most likely carrier of coronavirus 2019-nCoV was a bat.
In this case, most likely this virus is a hybrid of another coronavirus. They believe that this coronavirus is very similar to the one that occurred in 2003 (SARS).

Later, Xinguan Li and his colleagues from Wuhan University of Bioengineering recently suggested from the sequencing of the 2019-nCoV genomes and other coronaviruses
that the causative agent of the current epidemic arose as a result of the hybridization of bat and snake viruses, and another group of scientists came to different conclusions.

Understanding Gaps: Likely Carrier, Research, 2


01/28

There was a study indicating that the region of the receptor binding domain of the S gene was taken from the ZS bat-CoV virus (80% similarity).
This is a new virus with a more efficient receptor binding domain.

Understanding Gaps: Likely Carrier, Research, 3


01/28

imageSome people had no connection with the market. The

initial hypothesis about the origin of the virus through the market in Wuhan may not be completely true. Details were described about the first 41 hospitalized patients who confirmed the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV ...
According to researchers, 13 out of 41 cases had no connection with the seafood market.

Researchers isolated the virus from a fluid obtained from the bronchi of patients, sequenced the RNA found there. These actions were carried out on five more patients
. Scientists did not find any facts that allow 2019-nCoV to be considered a snake virus.

Understanding Gaps: Likely Carrier, Research, 4


01/28?

It was found that the entry point of the 2019-nCoV virus into the human or animal organism is the same as in the case of the SARS SARS virus - ACE2 receptors.
The virus joins them with its suction cups, and then injects its RNA into the cell.

Receptors are located in cells located deep in the lungs. SARS discovered in 2003 the method of penetration through ACE2, this makes the new coronavirus and SARS very similar.

The difference in the genome of different samples of the virus is very small, which indicates that the hybrid virus appeared no earlier than the end of October 2019.

Understanding gaps: A study of what was done with hCoV-EMC


01/28

In a typical case, a typical coronavirus that comes from bats is transmitted to another animal species or person, it ceases to infect bat cells.

In the case of hCoV-EMC, he continued to do so, as was proven by the center.

Understanding Gaps: Summary


01/26

The most likely options are: hybridization with an unknown virus. Hybridization of viruses from a bat and a snake (an insignificant probability). More research is needed.
It is necessary to carry out work to refute some of the speculative theories.


Coronavirus most likely crossed the cross-species barrier to humans, in all likelihood, through the intermediate link - of a domestic or wild mammal (for example, MERS passed from bats through one-humped camels, and SARS through presumably vivver). Beta-cononaviruses are found only in mammals, including humans. Therefore, many do not believe in the option of snakes.

Features of the coronavirus, including h.



Features of coronavirus: The incubation period


01/29?

The incubation period can reach 14 days.

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04.02

There is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. (From 2.0 to 4.0) This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of China Ma Jiaovei.

Some experts do not believe about the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. “I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of working with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with them - ed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period,” said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

Possible origin:


01/26/28.01

Nowadays from bats and an unknown animal like the hCoV-EMC coronavirus or bats and snakes. In the second case, this is a unique case, since this is a transfer from cold-blooded, albeit partial.

Perhaps the infected bats hit the market in Wuhan, where they sell them, including for cooking in the form of soup, a local delicacy.
Markets such as the Wuhan fish market (where they sell different types of animals) are a haven for the spread of coronavirus, like the current one or what happened in 2003 (SARS). So the emergence of a new virus was only a matter of time. Some virologists regularly reminded of this.

Possible origin: Outcome: Action required


01/26/28.01

Despite these reports, there are several important signs, most likely not taken into account, that could shed light on the characteristics of the virus.
For example: research is needed on the probability of virus survival in an environment outside the body, as well as studies on interspecific transmission of the virus as was done with hCoV-EMC.

Thus, it would be nice to conduct a study on this topic, to conduct a similar experiment with a new coronavirus. So you can see about other features of the new virus.

Possible origin: Summary: Suspicion


01/26/28.01

If my suspicion is confirmed, then the new coronavirus has at least several variants of the disease vectors:
people, pigs and some species of bats. This is very bad, since it is not known whether the authorities take this problem into account.

In addition, a high probability of mutations of this virus can be dangerous and can lead to the appearance of an easily passing interspecific barrier, a “universal” virus.
By removing the dependence of the virus on a specific receptor or increasing the number of possible infection methods, such a virus can be obtained.
Sooner or later, similar coronaviruses may appear, which can be very disastrous

Possible origin: Methods of spreading the virus


02.02

The bulk of the spread is airborne. Up to 100 million genomes per ml are found in nasopharyngeal secretions.
In 32% of cases in patients, on average 3.2 days after the onset of the disease and in 68% on day 14,
Viral RNA was detected in stool samples in 97% of patients 2 weeks after the disease and in 42% of urine tests.
Fecal-oral transmission is strongly suspected. 1 .

Possible origin: Virus transmission methods: Infectious (Copy)


02.02

There is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of the People's Republic of China, Ma Jiaovei.

Some experts do not believe about the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of work with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with them - ed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period, ”said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

This section contains information on the protection and survival of the virus. Next Section: Statistics

Section 2: A Brief History of Medical Remedies


At the beginning of the XVII century, the French physician Charles Lorm created a suit that was supposed to protect doctors from illness; he created a suit for “plague doctors”.
Composition of the plague doctor’s suit: Thick waxed coat, gloves, hat with brim, “crow” mask that covered the whole face.

The nose of the mask was stuffed with hay, dried herbs (lavender, mint, cloves, and so on), spices, camphor, or laid with a sponge dipped in vinegar.
At that time, it was believed that the disease was caused by odors (miasma), so the mask was created to drive away the smell, but actually acted as a respirator.
The openings for the eyes in the mask were covered with glass, and the “plague doctor” himself interacted with the patient or the deceased mainly with a cane.

In the 1860s, the famous hygienic physician Joseph Listerov created the theory of antiseptics. Since that time, more attention has been paid to the protective medical “uniform.” The doctor’s white coat was introduced in the second half of the 19th century. Rubber gloves for protecting hands appeared in 1886 at a US military hospital.
A gauze-watt bandage appeared only in 1916-18 - as a protection against the Spanish epidemic. Already in the 20-30s, masks were required to be worn by medical personnel.

Section 2: Features of protection against the virus: Treatment and prevention



Protection Features: Treatment


01/26/28.01

WHO does not recommend any specific treatment for the disease at home. In case of symptoms, seek medical attention.

02.02

Not yet possible. It makes no sense to stimulate the immune system if the patient does not have time to synthesize antibodies to the failure of the respiratory system.

Direct-acting drugs on the virus have not yet been studied, but there may be some data soon. According to Lancet, patients received broad-spectrum antibiotics, corticosteroids as anti-inflammatory and various antiviral combinations.

It is possible that a rather toxic ribavirin, which in itself has a (New version lost!)

Teratogenic effect (can cause fetal malformations) and can lead to death due to suppression of blood formation , may be effective . Therefore, it is impossible for pregnant women and the use is strictly under the supervision of a doctor. He demonstrated positive effects on SARS. In any case, it should not be used due to toxicity.

Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)



There are methods that can alleviate the most dangerous symptoms of the virus:
It is now known that as a temporary measure to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus, Chinese patients are treated with two HIV drugs - a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, writes Bloomberg. No effective antiviral drugs against the virus exist today.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (EXMO) - oxygen saturation of the blood makes it possible to survive the most dangerous symptoms.

01/22/01/02

The use of inhibitors of various types.

For example, Favipiravir is a synthetic antiviral drug that was developed back in 1998 in Japan (Toyama Chemical / Fuji Film). The drug is active against RNA viruses and was used in Japan in 2014 to stop the flu epidemic.
So the drug is not new at all and will not be a salvation for everyone. At best, there will be a weakening of symptoms for those already infected. So there’s no point in buying such drugs healthy.

According to Reuters, chloroquin phosphate, which is intended for use against malaria, has also been shown to be effective in inhibiting a new coronavirus infection.
That is, the drug is intended to suppress the performance of the virus. Such drugs are not a panacea. There are at least 50-100 such drugs (mainly inhibitors).

2019-nCoV; Favipiravir RdRp Influenza Inhibits RdRp ‱ Approved for influenza in Japan ‱ Randomized trial for 2019 nKoV (ChiCTR2000029544, ChiCTR2000029600)
2019-nCoV, MEPS, SARS, RSV, HCV RdRp RivRin RivRomV HCV RNA synthesis and synthesis ‱ HIV and RNA synthesis for 2019-nKoV in (ChiCTR2000029387). ‱ Randomized test for SARS
2019-nCoV RdRp Penciclovir Inhibits RdRp Approved for HSV
2019-nCoV, MEPS, SARS RdRp Remdesivir (GS-5734) ‱ Stage 3 (for NC04652525T2526T) 1 for Ebola (NCT03719586)
and another 65 pieces ... More details:www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41573-020-00016-0/17663286

Protection features: Treatment methods. Question from the reader


01/27-01.02

Hi, I wanted to ask if COVID19 penetrates ACE2,
then blockers of this enzyme can help for treatment?
e.g. Lozatran yandex.ru/health/pills/product/lozartan-teva-29982/prices

Yes, they can help in the treatment, alleviation of symptoms. 1 and 1 . Results only in clinical cases.

However, the result will depend on the specific inhibitor, so some drugs can inhibit coronavirus only in words. Thus, such treatment is possible only in a hospital and with an already approved, tested inhibitor.

There are many variants of inhibitors that inhibit the virus in one way or another. And there are also many ways to do this.

Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)


01/27-01.02

Scientists are currently testing pre-manufactured vaccines for other coronaviruses at the 2019-nCoV, as
Xu Wenbo, the head of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, just said, another scientist is trying to enter the country and test samples. Success can make a difference . Otherwise, it will take a very long time to wait for the vaccine, up to several years.

The US and Russia are already developing the first vaccine options. A certain result is possible in a few months. Research and development are ongoing for MERS-CoV.

01/28/06.02?

Researchers at Hong Kong University said they had developed the 2019-nCoV coronavirus vaccine, which already killed 132 people. The team modified the conventional flu vaccine and added part of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus surface antigen to it. The authors believe that the vaccine will protect against both the flu and the Chinese coronavirus.

Doctors at Rajawiti Hospital in Bangkok say a new approach to coronavirus treatment has improved the status of several patients. According to unconfirmed information: oseltamivir + Lopinavir + Ritonavir.
The Thai Ministry of Health will have a discussion on Monday about this. The doctor accidentally increased the dose of one of the drugs.
Now the approach is used only in severe cases. It is too early to talk about the universality of this approach and it is not worth buying these drugs in the hope of self-medication. If this approach is confirmed in the world, it will be an additional opportunity to save patients and will be used in practice.

01/29/20120

The good news: Attempts to use all possible combinations have had their effect.
The good news: One of the antibodies that was created against the SARS epidemic of 17 years ago is able to neutralize the coronavirus of the new strain.
In bioRxiv have material on the subject.

This refers to the CR3022 molecule, which is effective against the SARS virus. Scientists have determined that this antibody also actively joins the 2019-nCoV virus.

Other antibodies that are much more effective than CR3022 do not respond at all to 2019-nCoV. They target ACE2 ribosome binding sites. These antibodies could not bind the 2019-nCoV spike protein,

Coronaviruses are attached to cell receptors using a spike protein. This triggers changes in the structure of the spike protein and leads to fusion between the viral and cell membranes.

This indicates that the difference in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) region of SARS-CoV and 2019-nCoV has a critical effect on the cross-reactivity of neutralizing antibodies, and that it is still necessary to develop targeted antibodies for new antibodies produced by immune cells belonging to one cell clone that could specifically bind to 2019-nCoV RBD.

Information on the specific structure of the receptor-binding domain is also confirmed in another study. Read more in: Receptor-binding domain as a target for the development of vaccines against SARS.

Biologists believe that the use of CR3022 in combination with other substances "compatible" with the 2019 pathogen makes it possible to quickly synthesize the first drugs.

The good news: Australia has announced the successful creation of a laboratory version of the Chinese coronavirus.

02/01/20120

Researchers from Hong Kong University said they had developed the 2019-nCoV coronavirus vaccine. The team modified the conventional flu vaccine and added part of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus surface antigen to it. The authors believe that the vaccine will protect against both the flu and the Chinese coronavirus.
Unfortunately there is no more specific information.

02.02 2020

In Thailand, cases of cure patients were recorded using a combination of drugs. According to some reports: Oseltamivir (dosage was increased) + Lopinavir + Ritonavir. It is too early to talk about the full use of this method around the world. A meeting will be held at the Thai Ministry of Health on Monday. A possible application of the method will be discussed there.

Do not try to use a similar combination at home.
So far, the necessary studies have not been conducted on the effectiveness of the triple combination at this dosage. The drugs have many side effects, some of which are severe, in addition, the drugs are quite expensive.
Even doctors use this option only in the most severe cases.

A similar combination has already been used in medical practice including separately

02.02 2020

GeoVax, a biotechnology company, has signed a letter of intent with BravoVax, a vaccine developer based in Wuhan, China, to jointly develop a coronavirus vaccine using the 2019-nCoV genetic sequences.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals is partnering with Beijing-based Advaccine Biotechnology to advance the development of the INO-4800 vaccine. The vaccine is a potential treatment for 2019-nCOV.

Clover Biopharmaceuticals is developing a recombinant subunit vaccine using patented Trimer-Tag technology. The company is developing a vaccine based on the S-Trimer protein of the 2019-nCoV virus, which is responsible for binding to the host cell and causing viral infection.

Vaxart is developing an oral recombinant tablet vaccine using its own VAAST oral vaccine platform.

CytoDyn considers Leronlimab (PRO 140). The drug is already in the second phase of clinical trials as a treatment for HIV.

Remdesivir (GS-5734): China has filed a new patent for a drug created by Gilead Sciences Inc., which, according to its scientists, can fight against coronavirus.

Biocryst Pharma Halidesivir (BCX4430) is a Potential Antiviral for Coronavirus

Section 2: Features of protection against the virus: masks: Pros and Cons



Why WHO, other doctors do not recommend the use of masks, and why they can still be used



Cons of PPE


16.02

Usually referring to medical masks and not respirators. The effectiveness of medical masks only if most people use them or patients wear them to prevent the spread of the virus.
Cause a shortage of masks and respirators for honey. workers.
Some manufacturers warm their hands on masks. Some protective equipment can be quite expensive.
It is necessary to change or inactivate the virus on masks and respirators.
The complexity of inactivation (destruction) of the virus in masks and respirators.
You may forget to inactivate masks. It is necessary to keep personal statistics and control.
It may be necessary to understand the characteristics of the survivability of the virus and its inactivation (below in the article), to have the appropriate reagents and equipment.

Pros PPE


16.02

There are a large number of cheap and completely reliable respirators until they are sold out.
The effectiveness of respirators of the corresponding categories has been proven (in more detail below).
You can effectively protect yourself if you strictly follow the instructions.

Section2: Features of the virus protection: masks: Features



Protection Features: Masks: If


01/26/28.01

If the virus is transmitted through lung receptors (ACE2), it is likely that the virus is most likely to pass through the respiratory tract, the virus has not mutated, is not similar to hCoV-EMC.

Protection Features: Masks: Disadvantages


01/26/28.01

Regular gauze dressings are not a sufficient way of protection, especially if they become wet,
and they must be changed regularly, which is usually ignored (especially in conditions of shortage or high prices for them, the press reports that a strong increase in the price of PPE is reported)

Conventional masks are ineffective. There are risks of infection through open eyes and the conjunctiva.
In addition, the unconscious habit of touching the face of many also does not contribute to protection. Therefore, fully enclosed gas masks, respirators are preferable.
The very ratio of the size of the virus and the fibers of the dressings also does not give optimism

. Other scientists also consider respirators to be necessary, at least ... More details in Cons of PPE and Pros of PPE.

Summary: Respirators can be used.


Therefore, it is quite possible to use respirators. You can quite effectively protect yourself if you strictly follow the instructions.
In any case, you should not risk it: use gloves and cover with skin or glasses any areas of the skin in the absence of protective clothing.

Protection Features: Masks: Best Option


01/26/28.01

Therefore, it is better to use gas masks or respirators with glasses, as a means of protection, devoid of the disadvantages of gauze bandages and light respirators.

The WHO publication disease-commodity-package specifies the requirements for a respirator:
Made of transparent plastic and provides good visibility for both the medical professional and the patient, the adjustable tape should fit snugly to the head and fit snugly to the forehead, resistant to fog (preferably) completely cover the face, can be reusable (made of durable material that can be cleaned and disinfected) or disposable.

  • EU standard directive 86/686 / EEC, EN 166/2002,
  • ANSI / ISEA Z87.1-2010
  • or equivalent

in other sources: not lower than N95 with a HEPA filter. According to Russian standards, the analogue of N95 will be FFP2, N99 - FFP3. thankAlyoshka1976comment.
About the rest you can read the FAQ on respiratory protection and disinfection and. 1
Instructions for self-assembly of the "medical mask"

Section 2: Features of virus protection: conventional mask: Research


Concerning more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, most of which were field studies,
studied groups of patients on the effectiveness of measures. Read: 1 and 2

A prospective cluster-randomized study was performed that compared surgical masks, unverified P2 masks and the absence of masks
in the prevention of influenza-like diseases (ILI) in households. It has been found that commitment to use the mask significantly reduces the risk of infection associated with with GPZ,
but <50% of the participants wore masks most of the time.

It was concluded that the use of face masks However, during a severe pandemic, when the use of face masks may be greater, the
spread of the pandemic in households may be reduced. Thus, the efficiency will increase with the number of% mask carriers.

Virus survival: The effect of water is mostly positive for the virus. (Copy)


02.02

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive.
One study on water: A study of the survival of a typical virus in an aquatic environment

There are suggestions that an environment that forms over time in masks contributes to the conservation of viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)


02.02

The filtering efficiencies of individual FFR and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges
were tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers).
The tests were carried out in two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not resistant to oil. 1

Section 2: Coronavirus adaptability to the host


16.02

In simple words, the paragraph below can be explained as follows: The virus can adapt to the host, has some tricky mechanisms, it was not difficult for him to cross the border between animals and humans.

Virus survival: Virus buildability.


02.02

Many of the coronavirus proteins expressed in the infected cell contribute to the interaction of the coronavirus with the host.
For example, by interacting with the host cell to create an optimal environment for replication of the coronavirus,
by altering the expression of the host gene or by counteracting the antiviral defense of the host.
Many of these interactions affect the outcome of the infection, including adaptation and cross-species crossing.

Virus survival: Rebirth between species.


02.02

The number of mutations in the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV spike (S) protein; for the transition, the interspecific limit was insignificant. 1 . Li et al. 2005c (see Chapter 2). .

Chemicals that inhibit or delay the physicochemical processes of peptidases do not affect the penetration of the virus.
This indicates that the use and penetration of the SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV receptors and, therefore, 2019-nCoV are independent of the activity of the peptidase receptor.
They depend only on binding to these specific host receptors. 1 .

Section 2: Introductory information on the survivability of viruses.



In the absence of host cells, viral populations in the environment can only decrease or remain stable.
Evaluation and analysis of the shape and intensity of this reduction represent the main objectives of viral inactivation studies.

Virus survival: Effect of temperature, a key factor.


02.02

An increase in temperature is the main factor influencing the survival of the virus in the environment through protein denaturation,
damage to the nucleic acid or decay of the outer shell of the virus (capsid). Inactivation mechanism

Higher temperatures mean faster inactivation of the virus. At low temperatures above zero, viruses can survive for long periods of time,
often longer than the duration of the study. Survival in cold conditions
At higher temperatures, the viral population will be reduced by several orders of magnitude over several days.
Decreasing population at higher temperatures
The freezing temperature allows viruses to remain stable for at least a couple of months, but an initial decrease may be observed in the early days. Survival of viruses at temperatures below zero.

A minimal decrease in infectivity was found after 21 days at 4 degrees Celsius. Heating to 56 ° C inactivates the coronavirus rapidly. 1 .
SARS-Cov is stable in feces and urine at room temperature for at least 1-2 days, especially if diarrhea is present (high pH);

Virus survival: Question from the reader.


02.02

There is a question about the heating in the building. Neuromantix: 0 about heating in the building.
0 The results indicate that additional calculations of the correlation of relative humidity and different temperatures are needed.
It is too difficult to choose the optimal ratio of temperature and humidity at home. An increase in temperature gives a better result in most cases.

Most likely there are no practical studies to increase the temperature in the room as a factor in reducing risks.
However, based on information on temperature, you can try to increase the temperature. Humidity can be chosen to taste.
However, it is impossible to fully defend in this way. 0
To ensure a high rate of inactivation of the virus, it is necessary to provide a greater temperature than 28-30 degrees.

Virus survival: Humidity, an additional factor.


02.02

The relationship between inactivation and relative humidity is not monotonous; there was a higher survival rate or a higher protective effect at low relative humidity (20%)
and high relative humidity (80%) than at moderate relative humidity (50%). There was also evidence of an interaction between AT and RH. 0

Virus Survival: Effect of Temperature, Key Factor. (Copy)


Virus survival was increased by lowering AT (temperature). A similar relationship between AT and virus inactivation was observed for enveloped viruses in liquids and aerosols.
The data on coronavirus obtained in this study suggest that although the rates of viral inactivation are lower at lower antibodies, the
effects of RE on the survival of viruses at each antibody are different.

With surrounding ATs (around 20 ° C), coronaviruses can survive for 2 days, losing only 1–2 log 10 of infectivity, depending on relative humidity.
With decreasing temperature, the survival of the virus will rise. The virus can survive weeks at a temperature of -1.

The effect of the method of distribution: Summary


02.02

The bulk of the spread is airborne. Up to 100 million genomes per ml are found in nasopharyngeal secretions.
In 32% of cases in patients, on average 3.2 days after the onset of the disease and in 68% on day 14,
Viral RNA was detected in stool samples in 97% of patients 2 weeks after the disease and in 42% of urine tests.
In order to get infected, you usually need to be within a certain radius (usually 1.5-2 m) from the infected.
Perhaps the influence of a genetic predisposition and characteristics as in vulnerable groups (for example, lowered immunity).
Either (contact) to transfer viral particles from objects, or direct contact with mucous membranes.

Fecal-oral transmission is strongly suspected. 1 .

Virus survival: Effect of sunlight activity.


02.02

Sunlight is another important factor causing viral inactivation by ultraviolet radiation.
The presence of an indigenous microbial population has a negative effect on the survival of the virus.
The presence of organic matter in water has a positive effect on the survival of the virus. Other factors responsible for enhancing viral inactivation
include the presence of disinfectants.

The activity of sunlight can be explained by damage to nucleic acids through the formation of pyrimidine dimers or other products,
and other mechanisms may be involved, such as the excitation of active substances present in the outer envelope of viruses or in the environment.

Virus survival: The effect of water is mainly positive for the virus.


02.02

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive.
One study on water: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)


02.02

The filtering efficiencies of individual FFR and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges
were tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers).
The tests were carried out in two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not resistant to oil. 1

Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)


02.02 Todo

Over time, the protective capabilities of respirators degrade.
There are suggestions that the environment that forms after a certain time in masks helps preserve viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.
There is a Ukrainian scientific article for filtering respirators. The value of degradation is indicated.
1

Therefore, PPI inactivation methods are important. FAQ on respiratory protection and disinfection.
Otherwise, one could not change the mask and not inactivate the viral particles on the protective equipment. Virus RNA can exist on objects for a very long time. The protective capabilities of PPE are not permanent. After a certain time, depending on the protection class, etc. they exhaust their margin of safety. After this, the transfer of viral particles from protective equipment is possible.
So there are two options: to extend the service life (including inactivating PPE) or change them.

The number of bacteria on the surface of the mask increases with increasing operating time; a significant difference was found between 4-6-hour and 0-hour groups (p <0.05).
1 . Masks need to be replaced due to a drop in antibacterial protection.
For example, here is the degradation of static charge: 1 ,2

It is likely that the retention time of coronavirus will increase on breath-heated and moist dressings. Practical studies are needed.
Probably the features for inactivating 2019-nCoV are generally similar to SARS, but I would like to see real practical research on this.
The factor of preservation of the virus in an open environment may be another unaccounted factor affecting the spread of the virus.

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive. One such study: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Regarding more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, and most of them were field studies, and groups of patients were examined for the effectiveness of the measures.
Check out: 1 and 2

The impact of other measures on the situation


02.02


Assessment of other measures: closure of school 1 and randomized controlled trials of handwashing
1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10

Influence of other measures on the situation, nose washing, answer to the reader’s question


02.02

There is not much information on nasal irrigation (rinsing the nose). 1
Naturally, there is no information on 2019-nov or SARS. Conducting such studies is very difficult. There are a large number of washing methods. Not all of them have been investigated.
1
In the control group Significant improvements have been made. This may be suitable as an additional method of risk reduction in addition to hand washing and other methods.
However, each exit from the house becomes a whole mission and keeping track of everything will be difficult.

Section 2: Factor of virus size, survival and transmission versus treatment methods



SARS data are presented. Given the similar characteristics of coronaviruses (differences appear, for example, in the receptor-binding domain (RBD)), the situation can be reliably predicted.

The effect of other measures on inactivation


02.02

Other factors responsible for enhancing viral inactivation include the presence of disinfectants such as chlorine
1 , 2 , 1 , 1 , extreme pH 1 , 1 , copper 1, or aeration. Exposure to certain factors, such as water hardness, is less reliable 1

The effect of treatment on inactivation


02.02

image
The relatively large size of 2019-nCoV (~ 29.9 thousand base pairs and an average of 120 nm, min 60) and the lipid membrane make it susceptible to stages with virus inactivation, including used during production processes,
such as surfactants, solvents (S / D) 1 , waste management (low pH incubation), use of caprylate, pasteurization 1
or heat treatment, 1 , 2 ,
nanofiltration or fractionation processes ... The effectiveness of these processes was demonstrated on other model lipid-coated viruses, which are very similar to 2019 nKoV, for example, human coronavirus 229E and OC43, SARS-CoV and porcine coronavirus TGEV.

The effect of ultraviolet radiation on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question


02.02

Starting from 1 and 1, SARS was inactivated by ultraviolet light (UV) at 254 nm,
heat treatment at 65 ° C or more, alkaline (pH> 12) or acid (pH <3) conditions, treatment with formalin and glutaraldehyde.
Liquid samples of bovine plasma did not contain detectable viable PPV after 15 minutes of exposure (cumulative UV-C exposure of 2295 J / L) 1
Bad news SARS-like virus (2019-nCov) was inactivated for a period of at least 15 minutes at 56 degrees or 254 nm. Better than 20 minutes at 254 nm. This worsens the effects. Not every time you want to spend so much time.
1 With less time, the probability of survival of viral particles increases. There is little information on maintaining the possibility of virus division during inactivation.

The effect of ozone on inactivation, an answer to a reader’s question


02.02

The proportion of live viruses on the surface decreased exponentially with increasing doses of ozone. 0 .
Viruses needed ozone doses of 20-112 min (mg / m3) (contact time [min] multiplied by the ozone concentration [mg / m3) for 90% inactivation and 47-223 min (mg / m3) for 99% inactivation.
The ozone dose for inactivation of 99% was two times higher than for inactivation of 90%. The required ozone concentration at a relative humidity of 85% was lower than at a relative humidity of 55%.

Section 2: Summary: Survival information for coronavirus on surfaces.


Given the basics of the theory presented in the previous paragraph, one can try to predict the features of the virus's survival outside the body.

Based on the data, you can be more or less confident in a sufficient margin of safety compared to 2019-nCoV.
SARS-Cov viral particles are sensitive to treatment with lipid solvents, nonionic detergents, oxidizing agents;

Probabilities of keeping the virus on surfaces: Summary


02.02


In a scientific article, environmental surfaces were recognized as probable factors
contributing to the transmission of nosocomial viral infections 1 .

The question of whether hospital surfaces play a role in the spread of nosocomial viral infection has become particularly relevant in connection with recent news.

Probabilities of virus preservation on surfaces: Results, 2


02.02


During an outbreak of SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV), SARS-CoV nucleic acids were found on surfaces and inanimate objects
0 , 0

It is likely that surfaces can be sources of virus transmission. Risk assessment requires data on the inactivation of the virus on environmental surfaces and data on
how the inactivation of the virus is affected by environmental variables such as air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH) and more.

Statistics: Problems with the study (copy):


02.02

Due to the fact that to study the most dangerous coronaviruses, you need specially trained personnel working in laboratory conditions of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) or 4,
there are big problems when studying this virus, and only limited data on the survival of coronavirus and the response to environmental stress factors.

The results show that when depositing a large number of surrogates, these viruses can persist for several days on surfaces in the AT environment and
in a wide range of relative humidity levels (from 20 to 60% relative humidity) typical of healthcare environments.

Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation


02.02

Coronavirus may be more resistant to surface inactivation than previously studied human coronaviruses. It was reported that SARS-CoV survived for 36 h on stainless steel
0. However, the AT and RH conditions were not presented for the previous experiment, which makes comparison difficult.
Rabenau et al. 0 reported a much slower inactivation of SARS-CoV on the polystyrene surface
(decrease by 4 log 10 after 9 days; AT and RH conditions were not reported),
which is consistent with some observations of TGEV and MHV

Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: influence of the main factor


02.02

Virus survival was increased by lowering AT (temperature). A similar relationship between AT and virus inactivation was observed for enveloped viruses in liquids and aerosols.
The data on coronavirus obtained in this study suggest that although the rates of viral inactivation are lower at lower antibodies, the
effects of RE on the survival of viruses at each antibody are different.

With surrounding ATs (around 20 ° C), coronaviruses can survive for 2 days, losing only 1–2 log 10 of infectivity, depending on relative humidity.
With decreasing temperature, the survival of the virus will rise. The virus can survive weeks at a temperature of -1.

Section 2: Summary: Virus Probability



Probabilities of virus conservation on surfaces without inactivation: Summary.


02.02

Based on survival data, it can be assumed that enveloped viruses can remain infectious on surfaces long enough
for people to come into contact with them, which creates a risk of infection that leads to infection and possible transmission of the disease.

Summary: Respiratory Filtering Efficiency. (Copy)


02.02

The filtering efficiencies of individual FFR and NIOSH approved N95 and P100 particulate filter cartridges
were tested against viable MS2 virus, a non-pathogenic bacteriophage aerosolized from a liquid suspension. Its size (23-28 nanometers).
The tests were carried out in two cyclic flow conditions (minute volumes 85 and 135 l / min) and two constant flow rates (85 and 270 l / min).
The average penetration of viable MS2 through FFR / N95 and P100 cartridges was typically less than 2 and 0.03%, respectively, under all flow conditions.

Given that the minimum samples of coronaviruses exceed the size of MS2 at least 40-60nm.
An acceptable safety margin for respirators FFP2 and N95 can be stated with a good face seal.
A particle filter respirator N99 (FFP3) filters at least 99% of the particles in the air, but is not resistant to oil. 1

Summary: Why you need to change the mask. (Copy)


02.02 Todo: Add more examples, add the main argument in comments

Over time, the protective capabilities of respirators degrade.
There are suggestions that the environment that forms after a certain time in masks helps preserve viruses for a longer time.
Because of this, there is a certain risk of infection by touching the mask and carrying the virus.
There is a Ukrainian scientific article for filtering respirators. The value of degradation is indicated.
1 The

number of bacteria on the surface of the mask increases with increasing operating time; a significant difference was found between 4-6-hour and 0-hour groups (p <0.05).
1 . Masks need to be replaced due to a drop in antibacterial protection.
For example, here is the degradation of static charge: 1 , 2

It is likely that coronavirus retention time will increase on breath-heated and moist dressings. Practical studies are needed.
Probably the features for inactivating 2019-nCoV are generally similar to SARS, but I would like to see real practical research on this.
The factor of preservation of the virus in an open environment may be another unaccounted factor affecting the spread of the virus.

Water, a frequent means of transmitting viruses, can contribute to their survival, but many environmental factors will adversely affect the virus population.
Keeping the dressing wet can help the virus survive. One such study: A study of the survival of a typical virus in the aquatic environment

Regarding more specific data: A couple of studies were conducted on the effectiveness of masks, and most of them were field studies, and groups of patients were examined for the effectiveness of the measures.
Check out: 1 and 2

Section 3: Sars Incidence Data (For Comparison)


01/26/28.01 TODO: Update all statistics


SARS Statistics: Cases


01/26/28.01

in 2003, 8437 cases of the disease were noted, of which 813 were fatal. Undoubtedly, 2019-nCoV is the leader in the number of infected among coronaviruses causing severe respiratory syndrome.
From the coronaviruses known from the 60s with lighter consequences, much more fell ill. Many had these coronaviruses.

SARS Statistics: Mortality


01/26/28.01

In 2003 (SARS), about 9% of patients with a confirmed diagnosis died. Now mortality has dropped to 3-4% due to effective treatment.

SARS Statistics: Mortality by Age


01/26/28.01

Mortality was much higher in patients older than 50 years, reaching a mortality rate approaching 50% for this subgroup of patients.

Section 3: 2019-nCoV incidence data


01/26/28.01 TODO: Update all statistics within 1-7 days.


Statistics probability of mortality: by age


01.27-28.01

Typical mortality probability statistics for Coronaviruses (Actual), the
probability for those under the age of 24 is below 1%. At the age of 25-44 years - up to 6%, 44-64 years - up to 15%, from 65 years and older - above 55%.
According to some data, some of the children asymptomatic had the disease.

Mortality probability statistics typical of coronaviruses (Actual)
Of the total number of patients with Chinese coronavirus, 80% are people over 60 years of age.

Mortality:
80+ 14.8%
70-79 8.0%
60-69 3.6%
50-59 1.3%
40-49 0.4%
30-39 0.2%
20-29 0.2%
10-19 0.2%
0-9 years old No and hopefully not


Mortality: By gender.
Male 2.8%
Woman 1.7%


Cardiovascular Disease 10.5%
Diabetes 7.3%
Chronic respiratory disease 6.3%
high blood pressure 6.0%
cancer 5.6%
no 0.9%


Statistics probability of infection: by age


01.27-28.01

Compared to non-smokers, smokers are at significantly greater risk of complications.
most deceased people with serious chronic illnesses or immunocompromised.
Some of them had an increased chance of dying from other diseases.

01/29

Infected in 2020 by the ages of 28 and 89. The youngest of the deceased is 48 years old, and the oldest is 89, which generally corresponds to age-specific mortality rates for coronaviruses:
According to other sources, the average age of patients in Wuhan is ~ 41 years,

Probability statistics for other groups


01.27-28.01

People with weakened immune systems and chronic diseases are also at risk. For example, some of the cases included chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus (20%), arterial hypertension (15%), and cardiovascular diseases (15%). The first death of a doctor from coronavirus was recorded. The first death was recorded in Beijing. A 50-year-old man was injured. On January 8, he visited Wuhan and contracted pneumonia seven days after returning to Beijing.

2014 studies showed that pregnant women infected with MERS had stillbirths, so similar cases are possible with 2019-nCoV.
Recently, the first case of infection of a child.

There have been cases of infection from asymptomatic carriers. 1
Two people came into contact with an asymptomatic Chinese woman sent to Germany (Note. Later, she said that the symptoms did occur, but not so much)
. All 4 of those infected had a mild illness. The likelihood of contracting from asymptomatic carriers was rather small.

Statistics the probability of cure


01.27-28.01

Statistics on the number of cured: (January 28, 2020)
Up to forty-five patients were cured and were discharged from the hospital (49 today).
25% in China were patients with a severe course of infection (of which 16% were severe, 5% were in critical condition and 4% were dead).

Statistics: number of dead (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)


everyday


26 01 2020: More than 60 people (63 people), according to official figures.
27 01 2020: 82
28 01 2020: 106
29 01 020: 132
30 01 2020: 170.
31 01 2020: 213
02/01/20120: 259
02.02 2020: 305
02/03/20120: 362.
02/04/20120: 427
02/05/20120: 492
02/06/20120: 565
02/07/20120: 638
02/08/20120: 724
02/09/20120: 813
02/10 2020: 910
02.11 2020: 1018
12.02 2020: 1115
02/13/20120: 1363
02.14 2020: ~ 1400
02/15 2020: 1526
02.16 2020: 1669
02.17 2020: 1775
02/18/20120: 1813
02/19 2020: 2010
02.20 2020: 2126
02.21 2020: 2247
02.22 2020: 2360
02/23 2020: 2462
02.24 2020: 2522
02.24 2020: 2625
02/25 2020: 2702
02/26/20120: 2763
02.27 2020: 2801
02.28 2020: 2867
02/29/20120: 2923
03/01/20120 2980
03/02/20120: 3048
03.03 2020: 3116


Statistics: number written out


Every day TODO:

Cured 21,318 Fallen
: (Cured + Died) -5 (Cases of reinfection): 23765.
03.03

45,156 (94%) + 3,057 (6%) = 48,213 - {5-10}

Statistics: Number of suspicions



Statistics: number of common cases


everyday

42,756 (79%) patients with ordinary cases
03.03

33,493 (82%)

Statistics: number of severe cases


everyday

11,551 (21%) patients with serious and critical cases.
03.03

7,375 (18%) Go

to the news

Statistics: number of severe cases


02/23

Only 23 deaths in countries other than China.
02.24

A minimum of 27 deaths.
02.27

South Korea 13.11.8
Diamond Princess 4.4.4
Italy 12.11.7
Japan 3.1.1
Iran 19.16.16
Hong Kong 2.2.2
Taiwan 1.1.1
France 2.1, 1
Philippines
1.1.1 minimum 57 deaths
02/28

minimum 70 deaths (13 new)
minimum 89 deaths (19 new)
03/01

South Korea 18,17,13,13,11,8
Diamond Princess 6,4,4,4,4
Italy 29,21,17,12,11,7
Japan 6,5,4,3,1,1
Iran 43 , 34,26,19,16,14
Hong Kong 2,2,2,2,2,2,2
Taiwan 1,1,1,1,1
France 2,2,2,2,1,1
Philippines 1,1, 1,1,1
United States 1 ,,,,,,
Thailand 1 ,,,,,,
United Kingdom 1 ,,,,,,
Australia 1 ,,,,,,
???
Ecuador 1 ,,,,,,
at least 112 deaths
03.03

minimum 145-138 (+33)
03.03

South Korea 26,18,17,13,13,11,8
Diamond Princess 7,6,4,4,4,4,4
Italy 41 (34), 29,21,17,12,11,7
Japan 6,6, 5,4,3,1,1
Iran 54,43,34,26,19,16,14
Hong Kong 2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2
Taiwan 1,1,1,1,1,1
France 2,2,2,2,2,2,1,1
Philippines 1,1,1,1,1,1
United States 2.1 ,,,,,,
Thailand 1.1 ,,,,,,
United Kingdom 1 , 1 ,,,,,,
San Marino 1 ,,,,,,
Australia 1.1 ,,,,,,
03.03

South Korea 28 33
Italy 52, 79
Iran 66 77
Diamond Princess 7
Japan 6 Japan 6
France 3 France 4
United 6 United States 9
Hong 2 Hong Kong 2
Thailand 1Thailand 1
Taiwan 1Taiwan 1
Australia 1Australia 1
Philippines 1 1
San Marino 1 1
Spain 1
Iraq 32
minimum 175 -174 (+27 | +37)
03.03

minimum 222
03.03

South Korea 35
Italy 107
Iran 92
Diamond Princess 6
Japan 6
France 4
Spain 2
United States 11
Hong Kong 2
Australia 2
Iraq 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 42 1
San Marino 10 1
Philippines3 1
minimum 273
03.03

South Korea42
Italy 148
Iran 107
Diamond Princess 6
France 7
Japan 6
Spain 3
United States 10
Switzerland 1
United Kingdom 1
Hong Kong 2
Australia 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
San Marino 1
Philippines
1,339
03.03

South Korea42
Iran 124
Italy 197
Diamond Princess 6
France 7
Japan 6
Spain 5
United States 14
Switzerland 1
United Kingdom 2
Hong Kong 2
Netherlands 1
Australia 2
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
Iraq 2
San Marino 1
Philippines
1,429
China 3,097
South Korea China 3,097
South Korea 50
Italy 233
Iran 145
France 16
Diamond Princess 7
Japan 6
Spain 8
United States 19
United Kingdom 2
Netherlands 1
Switzerland 1
Hong Kong 2
Australia 3
Thailand 1
Taiwan 1
Iraq 4
San Marino 1
Philippines 1
Argentina
1,503

Statistics: Cumulative cases (More data in the chart table. From 11.02)



01/26/20120: 1300 (real) to 1700 (hypothetical, according to my method)
01/27/20120: 2989 (real yesterday, 2,000 real, Reuters) up to 3,000 hypothetical
January 28, 2020: More than 4,000 (real) 6,000 -8,000 hypothetical cases.
January 29, 2020: 6062 people (lower bound of the forecast). 8,000 to 11,000 hypothetical cases.
01/30/20120: 7875 (lower bound of the forecast) .9500 -13000 hypothetical cases.
01/31/20120: 9816 (Lower bound of the forecast). 11000-16500 hypothetical cases.
02/01/20120: 11943 (Lower bound of the forecast). 14000-15550 hypothetical cases.
02.02 202014562 (Lower boundary of the forecast). 16,000-20000 hypothetical cases.
03.02 2020:17388( ). 21600-29000
04.02 2020:20628( )23500-30000.
05.02 2020:24540( )24900-31000.
06.02 2020:28262( )30000-39500.
07.02 2020:31453( )35500-41000.
08.02 2020:34676( )38500-45000.
09.02 2020:37562( )32500-40000.
10.02 2020:40416( )
11.02 2020:43101( )
12.02 2020:45171( )
13.02 2020:60108( , 55000)(.14.02 )
14.02 2020:64436( )
15.02 2020:67102( )
16.02 2020:69264( )
17.02 2020:71330( )
18.02 2020:73433( )
19.02 2020:75196( )
02.20 2020: 75726 (Average forecast boundary)
02.21 2020: 76717 (The average border of the forecast)
02.22 2020: 77767 (Average forecast boundary)
02/23 2020: 78724 (Average forecast boundary)
02.24 2020: 79363 (Average forecast boundary)
02/25/20120: 80,131 (The lower boundary of the forecast)
02.262020: 81600 (The average border of the forecast)
02.27 2020: 82140 (The average border of the forecast)
02.28 2020: 84990 (Average forecast boundary)
02/29 2020: 85173 (Average forecast boundary)
03/01/20120: `87000 (The average boundary of the forecast)
03/02/20120: 89.002 people (average forecast boundary)
03/02/20120: 89.002 people (average forecast boundary)
03/02/20120: 90.133 people (average forecast boundary)

nces.ed.gov/nceskids/createagraph/default.aspx?ID=86833807f9ed4fefbeb5cde2354f05c4

Section 3: Statistics: Country Data


Every day, Spoiler with detailed country information has been deleted so far. Information is outdated


Statistics on the Chinese provinces here: I have more accurate country data.

image

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:5883-4747>3858>3089>2502>1701(1694)>1128>889>685>470>326>231 ^
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800-670>545>262>203>165>130>79>60>49>27>18 ^
130,125,283,59,38,35,51,9,11,22,9,2,2,1,1,2 ,2 ,1 ,3 ,2(28)
525-402>282>228>165>123>84>58>41>25>13>9>2 ^
123,120,54,63,42,396,26,17,16,12,4,7,~.1,(1/02)
(465)444-357>233>160>128>103>87>69>66>60>57 ^338+19 (21+19+)
87,124,105,73,32,25,16.18.3.6,3.4,18,6,14,1,1,1,1,3,1,1,3...
268-216>120>93>58>42>24>19>15>8>1 ^
52,96,27,35,16,18,5,4,7,7,1,27.02
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188-128>82>38>24>18>10>7>2>1 ^
60,46,44,14,6,8,3,5,1,1,28.02)
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58,61,27,,8,,7,6,2,1,~,(04.02)
:161-137>94>52>,,30>,15>13>11>7>~>2>1 ^
24,43,42,22,15,,1,2,4,6,1,~(31,01)
:156-128>91>59>33>,,25>19>15>6>4 ^
28,37,32,26,23.8,,6,4,9,2,4,(28.02)
138-130>117>112>110>108>106>102>98>93 ^_
8,13,,5,2,2,,2,4,4,5,2,1,1,3,1,18(67),4,3,5,9,8,5,5.7,3,2,4,6,2,6...
109,108>105>101>100>95>94>93>85 _
1,3,4,1,5,1,1,8,6,4,7,4,1,7,2,4,3,1,2,8,16,2,3,3,1,1,7

94-83>55>50>,,36>29>,,25>23 _^
10,28,5,14,7,4,,2,1,1,1,2,1,2,1,2,2,2,4...
93-15>3,,2>,1 ^_ 48+45(15)
12,,1,,1,~,1(14.02)
:85-60>55>52>,,49>47>41>38>33=33>26>1 _^
25,5,3,3,,2,6,3,5,7,25,1(24.02)
:81-66>43>29>24>18>14>10>6>5>2 ^_
15,23,14,5,6,4,4,4,1,3,2,(26.02)
78-71>60>52>42>39>29>26>25>24>23 ^
7,11,8,10,3,10,3,1,1,1,2,4.2,2,1,1,5...
66-45>31>9,,7>4>3>1 _^^
21,,14,,22,2,,3,1,12,1,27.02
61,,58>,,56>46,,45>43>26>12>5 _^
3,2,,10,1,,2,17,14,7,2,3(24.02)
60,,54>48>34>33>27>24>20>16>14>12 _^
6,6,14,1,6,3,4,4,2,2,1,1,1,1,1,2,1,1,1...(28))
54-46>36>35>32>26>19>13>8>7>6>5>1 ^
8,10,1,3,6,7,6,5,1,1,1,4,1(24.02)
,,50>47>,,43>42>41 _^
,,3,,4,,1,1,3,2,1,1,1,7,6,5...
50-45>35>26>14>9>3>1 ^
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39,,31>29>22>6>,~,3 ^^
8,,2,7,,16,,3(~,1(02.01),1,1(30.01)

29-23>20>15>10>,,4>,,3>2>1^
6,3,,5,6,,1,,1,1,1,(27.02)
:28-22>16>15>,,13>10>7>4>3>1 ^_
6,6,1,2,3,3,3,1,2,1(22.02)
26-23>21>16>,10>8>1 ^
3,2,4,6,2,7,~,1,28.02)
26-19>12>8>,5>4>3 ^
7,7,4,3,,1,,1,,3,02.03)
:25-21>17,,15>12>10>7 ,,>3>2 ^_
4,4,2,,3,2,3,4,1,1(23.02)
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6,,9>(7,04.03)
21-13>9>6>4>2 !
8,,4,3,2,,2,2(1,01.03)
21-17,,16 __^!
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Grand Princess 21..
45,06.03)docks Japan
MS River Anuket 45
45,08.03)docks in Luxor, Egypt
Diamond Princess 706..
706..docks USA


:112(+7) (106 () ).
:105(+5) (106 () ).
:100(+5) (101 () ).
:94(+3) (95 () ).

:68 (69 () ).
:73(+5) (74 () ).
:76(+3) (77 () ).
:86(+10) (87 () ).
:90(+10) (91 () ).

There was information, canceled
Poland 1 case
Indonesia> Now there is
Saudi Arabia 1 case (28 number)
Pakistan 1 case (30 number)
Kenya 1 case (28 number)
Equatorial Guinea 1 case (30 number)
Sudan: 2 cases (29 number 1 )
Brazil 9 cases (1 new, 28) 1

Incomplete data from December 31 to February 19
image

To news
Details also: Details
Data from a recent WHO report plus data from other sources synchronized


deathf.jpg
Photo widget to calculate the number of infected

Section 3: Statistics: Notes and Summary


10.02 Part of the data on the schedule disappeared, I had to re-fill it.

Good news. Judging by official data, distribution slows down. Because of this, the boundaries of the forecast are quite large.
Perhaps the lag from antiviral measures is already affecting. The speed of distribution according to official sources has decreased. Good news.

My statistics, some of the data may vary

02/14

Such a large replenishment of the 13th number is associated with a possible peak. However, due to the refusal in China to take the statistics of patients without symptoms, the statistics are distorted. Is peak falsification possible?

Statistics: Results:


01/26/28.01

It is already possible to admit a much greater base mortality (not considering the factor of good treatment),
perhaps the health system is at the limit of its capabilities. In the worst case, the ratio of mortality to infected can increase to SARS with increasing collapse of the healthcare system.
We can conclude that while the health care system has not reached its limit. Therefore, mortality is still much lower than mortality under normal conditions, without medical care (Basic mortality).

01/26

Unfortunately, it is not known how many actually died, but so far the mortality is lower than that of SARS, and the authorities reacted late to the coronavirus.

That is, mutations may have negatively affected mortality, but the delayed action of the virus cannot be excluded,
or it was very lucky / the work of the authorities was more effective than in 2003. However, there remains a high probability of an increase in the number of cases.

Section 3: Approximate Simple Assessment Scheme


26.01 This section gives the probabilities of a possible development of the situation.

We set the maximum probability for the airport in Wuhan, put a much lower probability for the airports. For airports in other areas and slower transportation methods, while taking the weighted average probability for coronaviruses ... for the last 5-7 days before the airport closes, we take a slightly higher probability than from the beginning of the spread, we try to consider how much it could get sick, given the age and probability of catching the disease , as well as the possible consequences of the incubation period and consider.

Statistics: Forecast: Assumptions:


01/26/28.01 TODO: Update the model within 1-7 days.

In addition, another assumption is possible: if the number of cases can be greater, then is it possible to increase the number of possible deaths on the basis of these thoughts about the possible number.

In addition: achieving a certain threshold of patients complicates treatment, worsens quality, including through a total shortage of medical supplies.
Therefore, this factor should be taken into account.

And, given the large incubation period, a large number of countries with disease situations, etc., the
number of cases can be greater based on the methods of probable spread of the virus, for example, given the number of passengers transported per day,
for example, only one Wuhan International Airport served 19 million passengers , of which 3400 flew daily to other countries.

The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)


01/29?

As the preprint of the medrXiv article emphasizes, carriers spread the virus without symptoms, which was one of my warnings when I started writing this article a few days ago.
It all depends on what progression the virus will develop before the end of the period.

16.02 ,?

This has recently been refuted. Symptoms do exist, but are very weak. So the danger is partially preserved.
The asymptomatic transmission of the virus was disproved. Symptoms: muscle pain, fatigue and temperature. Transmission during the incubation period was not disproved. 1

The characteristics of the coronavirus, including hc, are especially important: Distribution without symptoms (copy)


01/29?

The most dangerous indicator is the factor of reproduction of the infection, indicating how many healthy people are infected by one sick person.
This number lies in the range from 3.6 to 4 (approx. 2.0-4.0). And this means that it is necessary to reduce the ways for transmission of the infection in 75% of cases in order to stop the growth of the epidemic. Calculations in the model were carried out according to data on January 21.

According to epidemiologists from the University of Lancaster, the Glasgow Virus Research Center, and the University of Florida Gainesville, only 5% of cases were detected in Wuhan.

For comparison: in SARS virus in 2003 the infection reproduction factor was 2.0-3.5. However, this virus was not transmitted during the incubation period,
and the symptoms were more pronounced. The reproduction factor after quarantine decreased to 0.4.

Features of the coronavirus, including h. Especially important: Distribution without symptoms: Opinion (Copy)


01/29?

Harvard epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Dean points out on Twitter that he’s never seen a 3.8 *** in his life and expects a “thermonuclear pandemic.” (*** Most likely for typical coronaviruses)
He also quotes from another study, where the infection reproduction factor is estimated at 2.8.

Summary: Assessment Models for Other Professionals



Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 1


01/26/28.01

Perhaps Professor Neil Ferguson of the Center for Global Analysis of Infectious Diseases MRC at Imperial College London, has its own methodology and it is different, they counted at least 1,700 cases yesterday. New data on patients (2000) correlate with assumptions. Thus, it is possible today at least 2500-3000 patients hypothetically.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 2


01/27

Similar calculations are provided by another model presented by experts from Hong Kong. According to SCMP, there are already 44,000 infected in Wuhan, and the infection has spread to all the big cities of mainland China. In this model, the number of cases doubles every 6.2 days.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 3


01/27

For Wuhan, the 11 millionth city in China that became the epicenter of the epidemic, a team led by Jonathan Reed calculated
that, while maintaining the current reproduction factor, there would be 191,529 infected.

Closing cities will not help stop the Chinese coronavirus, although it will delay its spread to some extent, say experts interviewed by Business Insider.
I also pointed it out above. This will only affect the future situation and that is not so good.

The only plus is low mortality.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 4


01/27

According to German experts from the University of Gottingen, there has not yet been a peak in the distribution of 2019-nCoV, and March will be a real test for the world. In this case, the number of infected can exceed the result of SARS (about 8 thousand),
however, I expect a much lower mortality rate than SARS per 1000 cases, no more than 40 people per thousand.

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 5



Another (Such even more minimalist than mine) model. 39 000 people will get sick (Note. Already much more) 1

Statistics: Forecast: Forecast model, 6

190 000 people will get sick. 1

02/14/2020

Regular snapshots of the COVID-19 virus (formerly 2019-nCoV) published at the Rocky Mountains lab at the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Hamilton, Montana, are published.
Pictures taken from an electron microscope. Division 1
conducts research on dangerous pathogens such as pathogens of Ebola, tularemia, Q fever and others. Biosafety level - IV category (maximum).
In the USA there are about 15 facilities where there is such a level of biosafety.

World Health Organization Advisor Ira Longini has created another model.
according to the model, each infected person under ordinary conditions infects another 2 or 3 people.

Even if we halve the rate, a third of the world's inhabitants will be infected with the virus, Longini said.
who also heads the Center for Infectious Disease Statistics at the University of Florida. 1

My opinion: I can say that uniformity of infection is almost impossible. There are situations with a positive opportunity for the virus to spread, but vice versa.
There are much fewer “positive” situations than negative ones. Therefore, all these models can do little.

Statistics: Forecast: My model


01/26/28.01

My model is much more modest: See in the section "Data on morbidity", the line is a hypothetical number of cases.
in the future, from 8,000 (Confirm tomorrow or the day after tomorrow) –100,000 people will fall ill until the peak of the incidence rate, if the health care and quarantine system continues to function,
serious measures will be taken, there will be no serious increase in the number of cases in other countries.
This is the most minimalist statistical forecasting model that I saw (I do not have time, maybe something new has appeared)
01/16

It turned out there was a model similar to me. The minimum indicators of my and other models have already been overcome (SARS). If the epidemic fails, 100 thousand should be within 1-2 weeks.

Statistics: Problems with the study:


02.02

Due to the fact that to study the most dangerous coronaviruses, you need specially trained personnel working in laboratory conditions of biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) or 4,
there are big problems when studying this virus, and only limited data on the survival of coronavirus and the response to environmental stress factors.

Statistics: Forecasting Controversy


02.16: Section moved: follow the link

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Getting Started

Summary: State Response Stages and Forecasts



01/26/28.01

Unfortunately, too much time was allowed between government decisions, as is usually the case.
However, in other countries, a partially authoritarian model might have been worse; everyone will only know when it reaches a certain stage of danger.

01/26/28.01

Unfortunately, too much was allowed in.
After the threat was acknowledged, the level of government response afterwards
was generally quite high, however, it was expected that there would still be punctures for people, for example, the same video of dead people lying with the living.
02.16. Note

However, they say that these videos are from 2003 (SARS Epidemic). Therefore, the quality of shooting is not very high.

16.02

In democratic models, timely response to a situation is called into question.
The slow response of the authorities of any country is almost an axiom.
Closing millions of cities a couple of days after the discovery of the disease is fantastic.
According to the correlative model (danger — what needs to be done) of the state’s response, this will only happen if the danger is recognized.

In other cases, the response will be at least a week after indicating a significant danger.
Nobody will lose money at the closure of cities to a certain level of danger. This is the main truth about the relative model of response.
Thus, the reaction time of the authorities and the closure of the cities of millions can be called very good. Nobody has yet covered the cities of millionaires.
If 8 doctors together Li Wenliang achieved success, we could talk about an almost perfect response.

In the image below, I present the differences between response protocols and hazards including lag due to the incubation period.
The difference between a real response protocol (commensurate with the situation) and a hard response protocol. RTV Card
image


Protection Features: Treatment Methods (Copy)


01/27-01.02

There are methods that can alleviate the most dangerous symptoms of the virus:
It is now known that as a temporary measure to reduce the symptoms of coronavirus, Chinese patients are treated with two HIV drugs - a combination of lopinavir and ritonavir, writes Bloomberg. No effective antiviral drugs against the virus exist today.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (EXMO) - oxygen saturation of the blood makes it possible to survive the most dangerous symptoms.

01/22/01/02

The use of inhibitors of various types.

For example, Favipiravir is a synthetic antiviral drug that was developed back in 1998 in Japan (Toyama Chemical / Fuji Film). The drug is active against RNA viruses and was used in Japan in 2014 to stop the flu epidemic.
So the drug is not new at all and will not be a salvation for everyone. At best, there will be a weakening of symptoms for those already infected. So there’s no point in buying such drugs healthy.

According to Reuters, chloroquin phosphate, which is intended for use against malaria, has also been shown to be effective in inhibiting a new coronavirus infection.
That is, the drug is intended to suppress the performance of the virus. Such drugs are not a panacea. There are at least 50-100 such drugs (mainly inhibitors).

2019-nCoV; Favipiravir RdRp Influenza Inhibits RdRp ‱ Approved for influenza in Japan ‱ Randomized trial for 2019 nKoV (ChiCTR2000029544, ChiCTR2000029600)
2019-nCoV, MEPS, SARS, RSV, HCV RdRp RivRin RivRomV HCV RNA synthesis and synthesis ‱ HIV and RNA synthesis for 2019-nKoV in (ChiCTR2000029387). ‱ Randomized test for SARS
2019-nCoV RdRp Penciclovir Inhibits RdRp Approved for HSV
2019-nCoV, MEPS, SARS RdRp Remdesivir (GS-5734) ‱ Stage 3 (for NC04652525T2526T) 1 for Ebola (NCT03719586)
and another 65 pieces ... More details:www.nature.com/magazine-assets/d41573-020-00016-0/17663286

Protection Features: Vaccines (Copy)


01/27-01.02

Scientists are currently testing pre-manufactured vaccines for other coronaviruses at the 2019-nCoV, as
Xu Wenbo, the head of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, just said, another scientist is trying to enter the country and test samples. Success can make a difference . Otherwise, it will take a very long time to wait for the vaccine, up to several years.

The US and Russia are already developing the first vaccine options. A certain result is possible in a few months. Research and development are ongoing for MERS-CoV.

Summary: Hazard Assessment



Unfortunately, due to the large incubation period and possible mutations, various changes are still possible, the relatively small number of deaths can be misleading.
Many hint at low mortality compared to conventional SARS, but not only mortality can make it dangerous, but also a high possibility of mutations, a large incubation period, high infectivity and possible cross-species infection of creatures, the possibility of “silent” spread, and other factors that may change the overall situation.

Summary: Possible origin: Virus transmission routes: Infectious (Copy)


02.02

There is information about the high infectivity of the virus during the incubation period. This was stated at a press conference in Beijing by the Head of the State Committee for Healthcare of the People's Republic of China, Ma Jiaovei.

Some experts do not believe about the contagiousness of the virus during the incubation period.
“I seriously doubt that Chinese government officials have any evidence to support this claim. I don’t know any evidence that over 17 years of work with SARS and MERS coronaviruses (they often compare the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV with them - ed.), It was discovered that someone got infected during the incubation period, ”said Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota.

Results: Possible origin: Interspecific distribution


01/26/28.01

With a high probability, the new virus is not so scary compared to SARS (due to greater mortality) and especially hCoV-EMC (due to cross-species reproduction of the virus).

I consider the latter to be the most dangerous, due to the unspecified type of receptors through which the virus is transmitted, which may be an omen of the emergence of a new cross-type virus,
transmitted from animals to humans, and humans to animals without restriction.

Summary: Hazard assessment: Interspecific distribution


01/26/28.01

The mortality rate for this 2019-nCoV is not so high, and only certain age groups have a high probability of dying.

16.02

However, there is a chance that even relatively young people will die, for example, the death of Li Wenliang.

Outcomes: Hazard Assessment: Health System Limits


01/26/28.01

However, the health care system has its limits. With a significant increase in the number of infected, there will be a large deterioration in the quality of treatment. And it is confirmed. International assistance is needed in this matter.

According to press reports, now in Wuhan there are not enough doctors or tests for the virus. Patients spend hours in queues waiting for admission, and rapid tests are carried out only for those who have the most pronounced symptoms: temperature, cough, shortness of breath.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: Duration and Tails


01/26/28.01

Unfortunately, the average duration of the disease and its severity is quite high. So it is still not over soon.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor


01/26/28.01


It turns out that the factor of the new year can even help: the population has enough money on hand to pay for food ...
for several months without going to work.

Of course, some people have moved, but earlier.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)


01/26/28.01

In addition, about five million residents left Wuhan before the city was closed due to the epidemic of the new coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reports, which is quite possible given the time lag.

Thus, it was not possible to stop the spread of the virus using the usual virus response protocol. Only responding to more stringent protocols is unlikely due to the reluctance to spread panic, substitute power, be deceived if the result is not confirmed, etc.
The New Year factor, in addition to increasing travel, has a good side: Many people have enough money to live for several months .

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 3 (Copy)


01/26/28.01


Results: Predictive models


01/26/28.01

Above are various predictive models and their numbers.

Summary: Vaccine Development Probability


01/26/28.01TODO: Add from news list

If a positive result is achieved: success in testing earlier vaccines,
things can accelerate if the authorities allow them to be used without very long testing.

Summary: Vaccine Development Probability


01/26/28.01TODO: Add from news list

Regarding the hype: People stock up on masks. Even a medical article talked about this problem with a possible shortage of masks for doctors;
in the USA, doctors contacted suppliers and controlled the situation. Reserves of masks may not be long enough.
However, the release of masks is very large. In the end, the situation should bounce back.

Outcomes: Hazard assessment: The effect of lag on statistics. Effect of the incubation period:


02.16 TODO: Create an article

Indicate heterogeneity of virus transmission. 2 to 14 days.
Indicate the similarity of the schedule for the transmission of the virus to a tree-like representation or web.
Indicate the “tails” from the lag of infection to the lag of discharge or death many days after. All this will continue to stretch the duration of the flash for a long time.
Point to the minimum lines of the flash, taking into account the “tails”, even if no one is already sick will be at least a few weeks to several months.

Summary: The effect of the incubation period


01/26/28.01


Unfortunately, the virus has a large incubation period. This means that the current rates of disease and mortality reflect only the number of diseases at the beginning. That is, we are now observing only the first group of cases that appeared at the beginning. Thus, it is pointless to blame the authorities for the impossibility of stopping the disease. The impact of the current restrictions made by the government will be, for example, to reduce the growth of the virus growth exponent in a few weeks or at best to reduce the growth of infected people!
Therefore, the statement by epidemiologists that the results will be visible only after weeks or months is correct.

Outcomes: Impact of the incubation period: Assumption of going beyond the SARS level


01/26/28.01

In addition, the current number of people infected with the first stage may indicate a possible excess of the 2003 indicators.
I hope that the curve for increasing the spread of the virus to the peak of the spread of the infection will be o (n) or no more than (n log n).
16.02

And so it happened. The number of cases has long gone beyond SARS.

Results: The effect of the window until the authorities react


01/26/28.01

The disease had a large gap, where there were no restrictions. Now we are witnessing a situation of an increase in the number of cases during that period.
We will see the impact of measures taken by the government later. The same is with preparation and the usual response to the disease. As a result, being late in any case will be sufficient for the spread of the disease.

Summary: Hazard Assessment: New Year Factor, 2 (Copy)


01/26/28.01

In addition, about five million residents left Wuhan before the city was closed due to the epidemic of the new coronavirus, the South China Morning Post reports, which is quite possible given the time lag.

Thus, it was not possible to stop the spread of the virus using the usual virus response protocol. Only responding to more stringent protocols is unlikely due to the reluctance to spread panic, substitute power, be deceived if the result is not confirmed, etc.
The New Year factor, in addition to increasing travel, has a good side: Many people have enough money to live for several months .
The answer to why the reaction of the authorities can not completely extinguish the virus in the chapter: Results: State response stages and forecasts

Typical misconceptions regarding the virus:


01/26/28.01

Many fakes appear on social networks regarding the virus, supposedly the virus spreads only among the Chinese. However, the first cases of infection of foreigners have already occurred, the first cases of transfer from a foreigner to a foreigner have occurred.

There are also many fakes that are too dramatic. Pointing to hundreds of thousands of infected, or even dead. Despite the relatively long period between the reaction of the authorities, at current rates it is quite difficult to achieve such impressive results.

Some people do not believe in the reality and danger of the virus, compares it with the flu.
The virus is dangerous due to the complex parameters that make this coronavirus dangerous. Starting from a possible high infectiousness and ending with severe symptoms.

Some people really more easily pass the symptoms, there may be certain individual characteristics. Some people may actually get slightly infected. Not everyone may have pneumonia complications. Statistics on the likelihood of illness and mortality hint at this. Some healthy people have a chance to get sick without complications, but it’s better not to risk it. Unfortunately, there are still many blank spots in the study of the virus. However, this does not mean that the virus is a fiction.

Summary: Consequences


01/26/28.01

Highest probability: Substantial material cost to the country. The probability is very high. Danger: Significant damage to the country.

High probability: A new economic crisis. Financial markets are already reacting.

If the interspecific transmission of the virus is confirmed (which I want to ask for verification), the consequences may be worse. Danger: Increase. The probability is average.

If the virus mutates, the consequences can be very different until the effects increase significantly.

If the virus spreads to nearby India, the situation can become very complicated .. Danger: High. Probability: Average, only more than 30 thousand Indian students in the country ...

The worst outcome could be panic. If the authorities cannot control the situation or scare the population too much. Danger: Colossal. Probability: Very low.

With such a probability, if the population of a billionth country tries to break through the borders, then there will be favorable conditions for the spread of the virus.
A huge chance to infect Indian citizens, which can create the most dangerous migration in the world, and part of the population will be sick.

Results: Various negative consequences are possible, up to a very dangerous migration of the infected population, the government may not hold back such massive cases ...
I note the chance of individual survival for the population who tried to escape falls even lower than to remain in the current situation.

Unfortunately, it turned out that even technically advanced and powerful countries find it difficult to cope with the consequences alone, so I wanted other countries and organizations to more actively help in this and other cases in order to reduce the likelihood of panic and the worst-case scenario.

Summary: Forecasts and Reality


11.02-13.01TODO: Evaluate the results of my forecast and reality, add news related to the impact

Chinese coronavirus: Hong Kong medical experts call for draconian measures in the city, as researchers estimate that Wuhan already has 44,000 cases.

As a result, we can say that the minimum prognosis is no longer realistic. (More than 75,000 patients. 35,000
predicted ) If there were no new cases, my prognosis of up to one hundred thousand people would be real.
Due to new cases in the world, it is now likely to infect at least 100,000 people and up to 29,000 thousand.

Outcome: Action required


01/26/28.01

WHO needs to recognize the virus as a global threat. A move towards this has already happened: WHO said that the reports on Thursday, Friday and Saturday on January 23, 24 and 25, which said that the global threat was “moderate”, made a “mistake”. This is a very good sign.

Need a flash mob support on social networks. Fortunately, residents support each other and even created a flash mob. "Hold on, Wuhan!" It would be great to support them, at least in words.

01/26/28.01

The good news: The WHO IHR Emergency Committee will resume work on a new coronavirus in China to decide if the epidemic is a global emergency.
WHO declared the outbreak of coronavirus a global health emergency. The decision overturned the organization’s decision to postpone the declaration just a week ago.
The declaration does not have the force of law, but is a landmark example for everyone. The declaration of emergencies also adds urgency to any WHO appeal for money.

01/30/20120

The rapid spread of coronavirus caused massive cases of anti-Chinese sentiment. In Japan, the hashtag # ChineseD'tComeToJapan is popular on Twitter.
“Some of the xenophobia is likely due to wider political and economic tensions and concerns about China,
which interact with more recent fears of infection,” said Christie Gowella, associate professor of Asian Studies at the University of Hawaii, Manoa.

There is a lot of information about the growing domestic contradictions, which is very dangerous.
Now we need to deal with panic. The situation with the loss of control by the authorities is the worst that could be.

Officials say that central China is dangerously short of medicines, despite the fact that the equipment is delivered in bulk from around the world.
The situation is testing the health system for durability. The photographs posted on the Internet show that hospital workers, many of whom are still in protective gear,
fell exhausted on their desks and on the floor.

Two of the Japanese citizens who were evacuated from Wuhan refused to undergo coronavirus testing, Japanese social media users said
travelers who arrived in Tokyo on Wednesday put the country at risk.

01/26/28.01

Need material support from countries. You need to check the virus as well as hCoV-EMC, an interspecific check of virus transmission, which can provide additional information.

However, this scenario can be avoided by creating worldwide support for those infected, for example, in social networks, including from the states.
In this case, it is quite possible to defeat this outbreak of coronavirus.

Despite these reports, there are several important signs, most likely not taken into account, that could shed light on the characteristics of the virus.
For example: we need studies on the probability of virus survival in an environment outside the body, as well as studies on interspecific transmission of the virus as was done with hCoV-EMC.

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Getting Started



The main tasks when writing this section.
Put forward various models and methods for assessing the disease, with its minuses and pluses.
Indicate the need to create global forecast models with clear rules.
Indicate the problems of existing predictive entities.
Indicate an example of a complex assessment model and disease development factors.

Initial phase: Response: Medical response


In January 2020, a consortium of Chinese medical specialists was tasked with investigating the occurrence of the so-called Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan pneumonia.
On January 24, 2020, the report was published in The Lancet. The investigation was marked off. The first patient who was subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus had symptoms on December 12, 2019 ...

A previous case of a patient who had symptoms since December 1, 2019 was discovered. which indicates an even earlier origin of coronavirus.

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase



Initial phase: Response: Reaction of physicians, 2


The number was already infected on the 30th. Dr. Wenliang, an ophthalmologist from Wuhan, tried to warn Wechat in his account.

One day before the official reaction, a group of doctors could warn of an outbreak. Thus the influence of "whistleblowers".
At the same time, authorities did not allow widespread dissemination of information in China until January 3, 1

Then Li Wenlyan’s information stated that a group of seven patients was unsuccessfully treated for symptoms of pneumonia, the virus did not respond to traditional treatment.

Later that day, the medical department of the Wuhan Municipal Health Committee issued an "emergency statement for the treatment of pneumonia of unknown origin"

Initial phase: Response: Reaction of authorities and organizations


Already on December 31 it was established such a report, and then was supplemented by: 1

December 31, 2019 Municipal Health Commission of Wuhan, Hubei, China, reported
on the group of cases of pneumonia of unknown etiology with a common reference to the reported market Wuhan seafood.
In some cases, visits to another food market were reported, while others did not report any connection with the markets,
but were in contact with people with respiratory symptoms.

On December 31, 27 cases were reported in this way. Most likely, the basis for distribution was already formed then. Thus, we practically missed the initial stage of infection.
I did not find information in public sources.

On December 31, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan immediately stepped up arrival control processes.

1st numbers the fish market has already closed.

Initial phase: Response: Media response


The first chronology was created on the Worcestershake of Vorutgale already on the 31st! <a href= first pt.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cronologia_do_surto_do_novo_coronav Ă­rus_2019-nCoV> 1
Many thanks to them, thanks to them I got more information for analysis.

Analysis of Probable Influencing Factors: Initial Phase: Assumptions



Initial phase: Probability: Assumption: The probability of an outbreak starting earlier


02/19

AssumptionProbability || Forecast criticality
The disease began many days earlier from ~ 20.11 to 30.11
90% (Very High) || Significant


Given the onset of symptoms in probably one of the first patients on December 1, 2019, and given the probable term for the development of symptoms.
Possible influence of factors:

AssumptionProbability || Forecast criticality
Lag before the onset of symptoms (slight asymptomatic period).
70% (High) || Slightly.
Slightly increases or decreases the period
Lag before symptoms similar to colds.
80% (Very High) || Slightly.
Perception of the onset of symptoms in a patient. (May be lag)
80% (Medium) || Slightly.
The stage of diagnosing symptoms and the actual onset of symptoms.
10% (Low) || Slightly.
Incorrect patient testimony / Error in providing information
15% (Low) || Slightly.
The sequence number of the specified patient in the chronology of the transmission of the virus.
50% (Very High) || Large.


Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: Total:


We have a significant chance of a start. The “window of opportunity” for the spread of the virus can be much larger.
Due to the large lag of the incubation period, the number of patients in the first period most likely affected the second.
However, the size of the “window” still surprises me.

Initial phase: Probability: Proposition No. 1: The main factors influencing statistics


At the first stage, many parameters have a greater level of criticality.
The course of the development of the disease in the initial stages can significantly change
AssumptionProbability || Forecast criticality
The factor of the presence of “strong” individuals in the initial (base) group
50% (High) || Critical.
More fatalities | Less survival
The survival factor of “weak” individuals with greater infectivity
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21.02


:


The first major factor can be considered the severity of the disease. On the one hand, an ideal virus should cause greater severity, but eventually allow the virus to spread while the patients are still alive and can move around.
Thus, severity affects patient mobility. It will be difficult for a patient in serious condition to infect many. The most negative scenario for the virus. The severity is too high, all patients died without being able to infect anyone.
More positive for the virus is low severity but high infectivity. However, in this case, he should not threaten peace.

Thus, the “ideal virus" needs to be "delayedly increased severity". In this case, you can infect a lot of people (Mobility will be sufficient), and then they will die.
So our coronavirus is really “very advanced” in this direction. Very close to the perfect virus. If the severity was a little higher and modern means did not allow saving people, we could talk about incredible danger. The average number of infected from 1 patient (R0) from 1.2 to 3.0. This can be compared with the figures in the initial periods of SARS, H1N1 infections. Usually, R0 decreases with time. It is also affected by the survival of more aggressive forms of the virus and disease control measures. Some viruses can degenerate into less dangerous, but less dangerous can occur regularly.

The same SARS and MERS had higher mortality and did not have the pronounced benefits of delayed symptoms. Epidemics quickly agreed, despite the lower level of technology then.

: ()


21.02

The second main factor is infectiousness (This is a complex parameter): How many people can infect a person, what radius of the patient’s path is dangerous, what number of infection routes. how the protection methods influence infectiousness ... Here the ratio is direct. The more infectious the worse for us.

Restrictions on the possibility of infection and the “target group” reduce the chances of the virus. The same SARS and MERS required long-term close contact and genetically determined susceptibility to the pathogen.
However, MERS seemed to circumvent these features and really could be transmitted without ACE2, fortunately it was lucky. However, MERS oddly enough has an attachment to the place.
The outbreaks are still ongoing (in 2019, 152 cases, 51 people died). Recently, Saudi Arabia seems to have reported a small outbreak, just before 2019nCOV.

In addition, the main focus of the disease has almost exhausted itself. The main factors are likely to be other foci. If there is a new “wide corridor” for distribution, the situation may continue.
In other cases, the epidemic will decline. Thus, other countries are now at the center of attention.

The increase in the number of diseases in China continued and almost returned to normal +835 infected in China, having read + ~ 500 on the last day.
Disease growth in other countries has begun to affect overall statistics. Already registered 1076 cases of infection.
Given this, the situation will not be changed for a few more weeks.
Indicators for new diseases can “jump” every day, depending on the situation.

So there are 3-4 countries at risk. If everything goes well with them, the epidemic will be over.
The first country is Singapore (A man went to hospitals for a week until he was hospitalized), South Korea (A man went to church, infected parishioners), Japan (They say that quarantine is of insufficient quality), and also Thailand.
If the virus finds sufficient ways to spread and there will be a fairly vulnerable population (or other criteria, see paragraph: criteria), you can wait for a change in the situation.

Third main factor: Delayed action


The third major factor is the effect of the delayed effects of treatment and infection. Here the virus also has advantages. It’s hard to predict such hidden indicators.

Fourth main factor: mutability


The fourth major factor is mutability. Coronaviruses are more prone to this than part of other viruses. We will see.

Fifth major factor: incubation period


The fifth major factor is contagiousness during the incubation period and incomplete manifestation of symptoms, or partial manifestation.

Sixth Main Factor: Technical Level of Treatment


02.21

Sixth main factor: Technical level of treatment. We were lucky. If we encountered such a coronavirus in the 1920s, the situation would probably be repeated.
Due to the large number of factors, we cannot get a “clean script”. Many considered this to be the case on the ship, but this is not so. There the virus had its own characteristics.
They talk about ventilation and a large number of people from vulnerable groups. Thus, this option will not work either.

So it’s only partially possible to try to take a case on a ship as an example. An “ideal” test can only be testing in practically ideal conditions without modern treatment, which is absurd.
We will save people and not try to find out the real mortality and spread of the virus.
Probably in a “perfect test” one could get the result and maybe it would be comparable to Spain.

But don’t worry, while the healthcare system is working and there are advanced treatments, this should not be repeated.
I hope you now understand how important the healthcare system and research are. Perhaps we have already partially crossed the limit of critical vulnerability to diseases of the level of the Spanish woman.
So I hope that in a country with poor quality of health care a similar case does not happen. In other cases, everything should be fine.

Seventh main factor: Level of distribution


02.21

Seventh main factor: Level of distribution: This is affected by the means of movement, the number of people, the number of mass events, etc.
One of the most important elements can be typical places with vulnerable groups of the population.
One such place is the hospital and church markets. All places have almost been featured in statistics. For example, 155 people are already sick in Korea. Many of the sick were parishioners.

in hospitals, firstly, a sufficient number with chronic diseases, including a large number of other vulnerable groups. In churches, there is also a high probability of finding representatives of vulnerable groups.
Markets are a more traditional form of purchase for some population groups, in contrast to online orders and supermarkets.

In addition, a market like Wuhan served Yeshe and medical destinations. Many items in these markets are for traditional treatment.
Part of the population of China, the new middle class is already eating in restaurants, cafes, etc.
Thus, the market in Wuhan was a very favorable place as a base point for the spread of the virus: A large number of vulnerable populations, incl. treated with folk remedies.
About a large number of animals in such a market and conditions already mentioned above. Particular care must be taken to protect or suspend some of the vulnerabilities.

Postscript: I only state the facts and condemn any attempts at xenophobia for various reasons. As the head of WHO said: “This is a time for facts, not for fear. This is a time for science, not rumors. This is a time of solidarity, not a witch hunt ... ”

imageThe influence of various factors on statistics.
Isolated cases in the context of general statistics.

Decoding of infographics:
If you want to count cases, you need to understand that we are trying to translate three-dimensional multi-threaded cases into statistics.
At the bottom are individual people and their movement graphs. This can be depicted as a tree from 1 person to another. Round indicators: these are those cases that have fallen into the border of airborne or other effects. Depending on the form of severity (until a person usually begins to feel bad), he will move, especially in the initial periods when there is no quarantine.

The different lengths of such contacts (length of the incubation period) and the length of the recovery period also affect the statistics.
Further, cases usually spread in certain places: For example, a ship (highlighted in squares). Each such place has its own characteristics. Part of the places with a large concentration of vulnerable populations can lead to a difficult situation. Then territorially go disease zones up to countries.

Thus, I have already said that the market was almost the perfect place to start the coronavirus.

As a result, these small cases with each individual infected can greatly affect the statistics. A huge number of factors at the lower and higher levels affect the statistics. The main factors (More than a hundred) and the degree of their influence I have already written in the table above.

Outcomes: The Need for Global Valuation Systems


02.21

Thus, there are a huge number of factors that have their own characteristics. All this needs to be known in order to predict the spread of the virus. Otherwise, it is a fortune-telling on coffee grounds.
It is very important to create global forecasting systems that were trusted by many who really collected the big picture from incomplete and partially conflicting information.
02/19

As a result, we have a huge number of factors that need to be considered when calculating indicators. Data on several factors is almost impossible to get.
As a result, I am always skeptical about calculation models.

Some links


Human Coronavirus EMC Does Not Require the SARS-Coronavirus Receptor and Maintains Broad Replicative Capability in Mammalian Cell Lines — — mBio, 11.12.2012, doi: 10.1128/​mBio.00515-12

2019-nCoV


www.medrxiv.org
china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
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