Python COVID-19-Pandemiesimulation

Einführung

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COVID-19 — , SARS-CoV-2 (2019-nCoV). — , /, .

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Python

: . , , (Total cases), (New cases) (Infected), , ( - , ).

import numpy as np
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

#   
np.random.seed(0)

#         . 
#     :     . 
#      ,   , , 
#            - .
def get_coef(day):
    return COEF_BASE if day < DAY_QUARANTINE else COEF_QUARANTINE

if __name__ == "__main__":
    #  
    days = np.arange(1, DAYS_OF_SIMULATION)

    #  
    infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, 1)

    infected_lst = []  #      ,      
    new_cases_lst = []
    new_cases_total_lst = []

    #    
    for day in days:
        #   
        coef = get_coef(day)

    #      
        new_cases_idx = np.argwhere(infected == day).flatten()

        #        
        new_cases_count = new_cases_idx.size

        #       ,  
        infected = np.delete(infected, new_cases_idx)

        #             
        new_infected_count = np.random.poisson(coef, infected.size).sum()
        new_infected = np.random.randint(1, INCUBATION_PERIOD, new_infected_count) + day
        infected = np.concatenate((infected, new_infected))

        #  
        infected_lst.append(infected.size)
        new_cases_lst.append(new_cases_count)
        new_cases_total_lst.append(sum(new_cases_lst))

        print(day, infected.size)

    plt.figure(figsize=(16, 8))

    #    
    plt.subplot(311)
    plt.title(f"COVID-19 pandemic in {COUNTRY}")
    plt.plot(days, new_cases_total_lst)
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Total cases"], loc='upper left')

    #     
    plt.subplot(312)
    plt.bar(days, new_cases_lst, alpha=0.7, color='y')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["New cases"], loc='upper left')

    #    
    plt.subplot(313)
    plt.plot(days, infected_lst, color='r')
    plt.grid(True)
    plt.legend(["Infected"], loc='upper left')

    plt.show()

.

DAYS_OF_SIMULATION -    ,
COEF_BASE -       ,
COEF_QUARANTINE -       ,
DAY_QUARANTINE -        ,
INCUBATION_PERIOD -       ( ).

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, :

COUNTRY = "Italy"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 74
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. - , ( 74- ), - , , 14 . , 300000, 250- , 180 ( , , 6 ). , 40000.

:
— 300000
— 6
— 40000

, , :

COUNTRY = "USA"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 83
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

. , , ( DAY_QUARANTINE - ), , COEF_QUARANTINE . .

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— 1700000
— 6
— 250000

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I.

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 73
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 250000
— 6
— 35000

II. 1

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 80
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 950000
— 7
— 140000

III. 2

COUNTRY = "Russia"
DAYS_OF_SIMULATION = 366
COEF_BASE = 0.35
COEF_QUARANTINE = 0.135
DAY_QUARANTINE = 87
INCUBATION_PERIOD = 15

— 4000000
— 8
— 550000

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Ich schlage den Lesern vor, mit dem Skript herumzuspielen, den Prozess für andere Länder zu simulieren und sich in den Kommentaren abzumelden. Es ist auch interessant, die Simulation durch Hinzufügen weiterer nicht berücksichtigter Faktoren zu komplizieren.